God day to anyone reading this. I've finally crept out from beneath my stone and have found a few to do this summer Saturday.
My last blog was full of shame and bewilderment at the way my selections had been running, which led me to almost close down on my betting until such time as I felt more comfortable with my choices. In truth, I've learnt a big lesson this spring. It's one thing to note a horse who runs promisingly but if that horse is running in a low class, there's a reason for it: inconsistency is the key. I think that it proves better for me to look at better classed races - Cl4 at least and above . These are more likely to come from the better class meetings and festivals. Then the war chest is more promisingly stocked, I think. If I've marked one run at one of these meetings and then I see it downgraded, perhaps running in a more moderate midweek race., the chances of picking a winner are increased.
Probably taking an interest in good - class Saturday fare is a good idea to look for more note-worthy candidates and today I have a mixture of noted horses and then some which re form choices, or my reading of the form anyway.
It's difficult to choose one bet above all others because, although I have some noted horses running, there are some questions that some need to answer. So:
Montassib - 2.04 Newcastle 4/1
Have followed this one this season and last and this looks like a good opportunity
United Approach 3.40 Newcastle 4/1
A strongly noted horse last time out but the snag is it's never raced on the surface
Spring Bloom - 4.25 Windsor 4/1
Followed in the past. Below winning mark and the question is will it cope with the 6f? I'm hoping maturity may help with this.
2x win Singles
Ew Trixie
Rizg - 1.35 Newcastle 20/1Ew.
This is a big price. Off the course for a long time and never raced on the surface but into handicap company and I'll take an Ew chance to see how this works out.
Artisan - 3.10 Newcastle 40/1 Ew.
Gave the impression in May (over the course) that staying may be the game. It wouldn't be the first Johnston horse to improve for a distance of ground and for that, it's a fantastic price I can't ignore. Five places with 365 at that price.
Commander Crouch - 5.40 Lingfield Ew 12/1 last night with 365
I think this one has had it's chances spoilt of late by 'soft' being in the going description. so I've been waiting for the ground. Of course, they enter into this having raced on the polytrack just once, at Kempton: last of eight but a winner on Tapeta at Southwell. I backed this ew last night at 12's and the dreaded daytime gamble has shrunk the price to 9/2 - I have been warned.
3 x Ew singles
Ew Trixie
Will add a sporting Ew little nibble on Haveyoumissedme (2.35 Newcastle) this has disappointed me so much in some of its runs but was second in this two years ago off 6Lbs higher OR. Belgoprince (also 9/1) has a look about it too @ 9/1 with Doyle up. The horse bolted up when he came over to Epsom last summer over 12f. Only beaten less than 5L at Naas over 2m on the soft subsequently. Who knows? this may have been the plan.
So, there I go. It'll be back to the damp, dark conditions of my sub-stone habitat after this, I shouldn't wonder but hey ho. I expect nothing less but thought I'd share my hopes.
My last blog was full of shame and bewilderment at the way my selections had been running, which led me to almost close down on my betting until such time as I felt more comfortable with my choices. In truth, I've learnt a big lesson this spring. It's one thing to note a horse who runs promisingly but if that horse is running in a low class, there's a reason for it: inconsistency is the key. I think that it proves better for me to look at better classed races - Cl4 at least and above . These are more likely to come from the better class meetings and festivals. Then the war chest is more promisingly stocked, I think. If I've marked one run at one of these meetings and then I see it downgraded, perhaps running in a more moderate midweek race., the chances of picking a winner are increased.
Probably taking an interest in good - class Saturday fare is a good idea to look for more note-worthy candidates and today I have a mixture of noted horses and then some which re form choices, or my reading of the form anyway.
It's difficult to choose one bet above all others because, although I have some noted horses running, there are some questions that some need to answer. So:
Montassib - 2.04 Newcastle 4/1
Have followed this one this season and last and this looks like a good opportunity
United Approach 3.40 Newcastle 4/1
A strongly noted horse last time out but the snag is it's never raced on the surface
Spring Bloom - 4.25 Windsor 4/1
Followed in the past. Below winning mark and the question is will it cope with the 6f? I'm hoping maturity may help with this.
2x win Singles
Ew Trixie
Rizg - 1.35 Newcastle 20/1Ew.
This is a big price. Off the course for a long time and never raced on the surface but into handicap company and I'll take an Ew chance to see how this works out.
Artisan - 3.10 Newcastle 40/1 Ew.
Gave the impression in May (over the course) that staying may be the game. It wouldn't be the first Johnston horse to improve for a distance of ground and for that, it's a fantastic price I can't ignore. Five places with 365 at that price.
Commander Crouch - 5.40 Lingfield Ew 12/1 last night with 365
I think this one has had it's chances spoilt of late by 'soft' being in the going description. so I've been waiting for the ground. Of course, they enter into this having raced on the polytrack just once, at Kempton: last of eight but a winner on Tapeta at Southwell. I backed this ew last night at 12's and the dreaded daytime gamble has shrunk the price to 9/2 - I have been warned.
3 x Ew singles
Ew Trixie
Will add a sporting Ew little nibble on Haveyoumissedme (2.35 Newcastle) this has disappointed me so much in some of its runs but was second in this two years ago off 6Lbs higher OR. Belgoprince (also 9/1) has a look about it too @ 9/1 with Doyle up. The horse bolted up when he came over to Epsom last summer over 12f. Only beaten less than 5L at Naas over 2m on the soft subsequently. Who knows? this may have been the plan.
So, there I go. It'll be back to the damp, dark conditions of my sub-stone habitat after this, I shouldn't wonder but hey ho. I expect nothing less but thought I'd share my hopes.
(who needed the other 4 places?)
