Saturday Racing

Steve T

Steve T

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May 3, 2003
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Few interesting contests tomorrow, couple that I like:

Bouvardia 2.55 Nottingham for Henry Cecil and Laudatory in the 2.10 Lingfield, both around the 2/1 mark.

In the Vicotria Cup at Ascot I would expect money to fly around for plenty of different horses and I notice the Jim McGrath owned Opus Maximus (decent runner-up at Chester today) is around the 20/1 mark. I'd rather have a few running for me at big e/w prices in a contest such as this and am interested in Fishforcompliments, Majuro, OM & Giganticus as a shortlist, nice spread across the draw with these too!

Edit: Just as I post this the price for Fishforcompliments has dropped on Bf to around 12/1, 14's dissappeared with some of those pricing up overnight, and Ladbrokes go only 10/1, Pricewise perhaps? Maybe the Fahey / Frederik Tylicki connection that they mentioned on C4 today.
 
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I really like Quest for Success in the Victoria Cup, 20/1 seems huge. His winning time at Thirsk lto was absolutely massive and whilst I don't trust Richard Fahey as far as I can throw him and I can never seem to catch him right, I've had a small investment. Interesting that Tony Hamilton goes there for one ride and Hanagan goes to Nottingham (Herrera is therefore of interest in the 2.25 there back up to 1m6f on fast ground), Tylicki on Fishforcompliments worries me though as his 5lb claim is very valuable but FFC just never seems to get his head infront.

I think Tamagin and Royal Rock will fight out a fascinating conditons sprint in the 4.50 Haydock, their records over a straight 6f on decent ground are very admirable and they're both extremely quick horses. I think the latter could even prove to be Group class in time if he's over his setbacks from last season.

City Style could make 11/4 look incredibly generous in the 3.05 Haydock, people assume Godolphin are crap this time of year but they've actually been running pretty well for them and he won't have to be up to standard to win this weak listed race.

Elsewhere, Jimmy Styles should win the 4.00 Ascot but first time out at 11/4 doesn't interest me and in the 4.55 Lingfield, Unnefer should walk it but 5/4 is a bit too short for me.
 
One more chance to fishforcompliments ran a cracking race last time since being gelded and also evens and odds who did me a good turn last week and he won so so easily.
 
I’m not going to have time to type out and tabulate all the ratings for the big-field races today so apologies for that.

Haydock 1.20

As I’ve said several times of late, the handicapper seems to have a very tight grip on the hurdles form. It isn’t unusual to see horses going up a few pounds despite being beaten. It’s very hard to find an edge with these races and only a few pounds separate the entire field on my figures so the race is likely to go to something which will have everything run to suit or is unexposed. I have Elzahaan joint top but I think he might be the big improver so I’m not going to look any further, but I wouldn’t be confident.

1.55
The same comments apply here but there are a few more progressive or unexposed types. However, there’s certainly no Blue Bajan in this field. I’ve backed two. Hot Diamond (took 18/1) looks reasonably handicapped and has a good claimer while Khyber Kim (50/1) is now well handicapped on the back of some poor form but just about anything could win.

Ascot 1.05

This isn’t much of a race but I’ve backed Zaham as it’s only 1lb behind the official top rated horse yet gets 6lbs and just shades it on my own figures. Add to that Mark Johnston’s track record and 3/1 seems reasonable.

2.15
I was very surprised to find how many of this field I don’t think of as Class 2 handicappers. Maybe I’m just getting old or maybe I haven’t had as much chance to dig into the form as normal. A few, however, look well up to beating the norm of 120. Blue Sky Basin (114+p, drawn 24, best priced 28/1), Evens And Odds (120+, 23, 13/2), Majuro (123?t, 13, 14/1), Giganticus (121, 7, 25/1), Trafalgar Bay (116++, 3, 16/1), Red Somerset (121AWP, 1, 80/1), Maze (120oe, 19, 14/1) and Bomber Command (129AWP, 26, 66/1) would all have their chance if running to their very best but it’s hard to say which will be able to do so or what effect the draw will have. Eight of the last ten running have gone to high draws but the big field handicap run here recently was dominated by low draws. I reckon the percentage call is Odds And Evens. Dandy Nicholls seems not only to have got the horse back to its best but also to have improved it and it was a classy horse before. I’ll probably also dabble lightly in Trafalgar bay and Red Somerset from low draws but I’ve already taken 66/1 Bomber Command in case there have been excuses for his turf form being some way off his high Polytrack figures.

2.50
Monsieur Joe has already posted the kind of time rating you’d hope to see in one of the big Royal Ascot 2yo races so 5/2 or thereabouts strikes me as a good price.
 
Like the look of Maze in the Victoria Cup. Ran an encouraging 4th at Ponty off a mark of 91 first time out and looked like it would appreciate the step up to 7f next time. The 2nd that day was runner up to Evens and Odds last week and now off 90 at a track where he's recorded one of only 2 career successes, I'm happy to have a small dabble on Maze at 16s.
 
I reckon the official handicapper would rate the handicap that Evens and Odds won last Sunday through the 3rd, 4th and 5th. That would put Evens and Odds on an OR of ~103*. With his penalty he runs today off 96, making him half a stone well in. Could it be as simple as that?

Edit: *at the very least, 101.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
I reckon the official handicapper would rate the handicap that Evens and Odds won last Sunday through the 3rd, 4th and 5th. That would put Evens and Odds on an OR of 103. With his penalty he runs today off 96, making him half a stone well in. Could it be as simple as that?
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Not sure he'll be as effective over 7 furlongs personally.
 
I think that's fair comment - doubt over the trip is probably what's keeping him an e/w bet to nothing.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Do you think Ruby has had a tutorial from Murtagh?:o
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If that's in reference to the first at Haydock then you have to say the winner came from further back.

As for teh Swinton, if anyone has it recorded can you check and see what happened to Hot Diamond? It seemed to be moving into contention on the heels of the leaders going into the final bend yet came out two-thirds back through the field many lengths away. In the end he was only beaten less than half a length. Needless to say, I only had it win only (at 18/1 too!!)

Another gutter was that Khyber Kim which I was on EW at 50/1 finished fifth, running on well for pressure and would have been fourth in a few more strides.
 
Desert Orchid said:
2.50
Monsieur Joe has already posted the kind of time rating you’d hope to see in one of the big Royal Ascot 2yo races so 5/2 or thereabouts strikes me as a good price.
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Aaarrgh...:mad:

When checking the form book this evening for possible reasons why this one didn't win I discovered it's the wrong horse :mad::mad::mad:

The one with the big time rating is Monsieur Chevalier, trained by R Hannon.
 
Royal Rock was incredibly impressive at Haydock, Group honours surely beckon for him and his incredibly talented and shrewd handler.
 
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