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LUKE

Senior Jockey
Joined
May 2, 2003
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8,507
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Waterford
You'llbemine(nap) in the first to get the Murtagh bandwagon moving.
Lay Rainbow View at under 5-4 and Sea The Stars at under 1.7
I like Ox's in the mile and a half fillies handicap but I would definitely be trying to lay off at a short price in running.
I couldn't back Dynasty at 4-5.
 
3 Godolphin good things at Kempton tomorrow, Kirklees, Musleh & Dhaawiah, the latter being the NAP.
 
Don't know if anyone else saw it on RUK when Musleh & Dhaawiah running at in August, they both ran over the mile. RUK did one of their overlays of the two races, showing them running near identical races, Musleh winning and Dhaawi being caught close home but some 5L clear of the 3rd. RUK maintained that given the performance by Musleh off 79 (has sebsequently followed up off of 88) that Dhaawiah may well hit similar heights. Off 82 today, I'm happy to agree that Dhaawiah may have around another 6lb in hand of the official mark.

Badly drawn today, but I don't think that Musleh necessarially has to make the running and Frankie may sit in and quicken down the straight. 3lb rise for a facile vistory last time isn't too harsh and both horses are proven over CD.
 
Tend to agree DJ. Trooting out names of horses isnt too interesting really...

Surely high Standing has to be taken on today? Obviously theres going to be the Fallon factor driving the price downwards but the form simply isnt up to scratch. Im never at all keen on backing favs from whom imporvement is definately required. Hes not completely unexposed either. Will be interesting to see the result of first race, timewise too, to ascertain how that ground is riding. Finjan and Fleeting spirit right in the equation if ground is good
 
Clear Reef at 33's in the Old Borough Cup for me - only negative really is that he's a few pounds out of the handicap. He's won on soft/heavy ground before and over CD, he'll be racing from just a couple of pounds over his previous winning mark (won off 79 and dropped to 78, but OOH). Think with hardly any weight on his back and from a trainer who can cause a shock in these big staying handicaps he represents great value.
 
davidjohnson said:
Threads like this would be far more interesting if there was some rationale for the bets.
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I'm glad you think so David, I agree.

In order to drive up quality and interest in the forum, it always makes for a more stimulating and thought provoking read if people are able to put some substance behind their rationale. Unfortunately it has been the trend on many fora to simply just rattle off a series of names (no different to any newspaper) although even they will write a feature piece. All you end up with otherwise is lazy one line posts and little more than a de-facto racecard.

It's been a personal bug bear of mine that TH has moved in this kind of direction but I suppose the new generation of quick fire 'facebook' and 'twitters' have started to condition people to this line of posting. I'd much rather read a well thought out article that someone's put some time into which sets me thinking and provokes a response, than a gattling gun of names and statements of the blindingly obvious that lasy no more than one sentance at best
 
Easy, DJ. Nowt wrong with youthful enthusiasm.

Steve, Dhaawiah is a standout for me against this lot but Mulsleh has the draw to contend with in a competitive field and I slightly prefer Fairy Footsteps.
 
Poet has to be take on in the Kilternan Stakes - hard race the last day (his third quick run recently) and he has looked a non stayer over 10 furlongs in the past. Shreyas and Johann Zoffany are pretty interesting in this.

Fourpenny Lane in the handicap is another that catches my eye. Ground should suit and has slipped down to a nice mark. Capable of a big run today at a decent e/w price.

Finally at Haydock I think Bushranger is a very big price. Stable has been out of form all season up until recently and in an open event prices at above 20/1 make good place value.
 
I'm pretty keen on Shreyas myself, Gal. Poet looks to be thriving at the minute but is fairly one-paced, especially with the ground drying up now. Looks vulnerable to a horse with a turn of foot, with both Shreyas and Fiery Lad fitting the bill. The Bolger filly was far too keen for her own good the last day (probably doesn't get the trip anyway), but should be seen to best effect over ten furlongs with the expected good gallop (Johan Zoffany) likely to show her to best effect.

The only thing that is stopping me from really getting stuck in is the fact that I can't really get a handle on Allied Powers.
 
Shreyas is indeed interesting given that the two horses ahead of her in the Ballyroan might easily be considered Gp1. Mourayan might be a Leger winner in a little over a week, and Profound Beauty is undefeated this year and looks to be well on target for the Melbourne Gold Cup. That race might have a Gp3 in name only, and her third place could be disguising something much better
 
trackside528 said:
The only thing that is stopping me from really getting stuck in is the fact that I can't really get a handle on Allied Powers.
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Allied Powers had as hard a race as I've seen a horse have in a long while at Galway. I'd have grave concerns about him being turned out quickly.

I don't think Shreyas has quite the stamina she's bred for and didn't think she got home last time after pulling hard. Her 8f/9f efforts at this course make her interesting, and I agree she looks overpriced at 9/2.
 
Agree with you there David, it was a horrible race and he can't be on peak form today after that effort on Monday.

Elsewhere, I think Timely Jazz is a huge price in the 4.05 Haydock, he holds the favourite on previous maiden form and has some very strong form lines with Elusive Pimpernel. He's also ran some very strong times too.

Derbaas could be overpriced on course form in the 2.25 too in what is not the strongest of races, at least you'll know he'll handle conditions. The same goes for Moyenne Corniche who's form with Dream Lodge and Forgotten Voice looks pretty rosey.

Be interested to see what our French specialists make of Sky Crusader in the 2.40 Kempton too? His record on polytrack at Deauville is fantastic and he has the potential to be dangerously overpriced simply because of his profile. May throw a few shillings each way at him.
 
Are you sure Deauville is a polytrack surface? I was under the impression it was a type of fibresand, though not quite the same stuff at Southwell.

I've thrown a few quid at Muhannak. He hasn't been at his best this year, but equally he hasn't had his conditions, beaten twice on dirt in Dubai and then on turf after an absence at Goodwood. His polytrack/pro-ride record is pretty hard to knock, never out of the first 3, and if you look at the horses he beat in a mess of a race at Dundalk, and the style of his handicap win at Kempton, then I'm not sure he has all that much to find with the market leaders.
 
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I'm not a great one for odds-on shots but Mastercraftsman recorded a time rating of 128 on my figures at York and can be backed to finish in the first three at Leopardstown today over a similar trip on a sharper course at 1.62 on Betfair. That looks very generous indeed.
 
Set The Trend looks good value in the 3.10 with only Fancy Footsteps (class 4 horse) to beat as the draw will take care of the other two market leaders
 
that always happpens, get the fav beat and still not get the winner :D

Danny Zuko looks the value in the 3.20 against the market leaders who both have distance ? to answer so are really bad value prices imo
 
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