I've yet to have a winning Saturday this year so I'll tread carefully. I'm well up on the year but every Saturday has been an utter bloodbath. Therefore it'll be small stakes at value prices for me today.
The 2.35 Lingfield is competitive and Scarab doesn't interest me in the top of market. He hasn't look straightforward and he had the run of the race when he won last time out at Kempton. American Spin looks to be improving with every run and his maiden win hasn't worked out too badly but I don't think 7/2 is value. I'd look further down the market at the double figures horses for the value in this race.
Ameeq was 25/1 this morning and is still 20/1 with Hills but has been backed across the boards, Gary Moore runs four here and he certainly knows the time of day but this 7 year old has been running in novice chases of late but his record on the all-weather reads 2 wins and 1 second from 3 runs. The other one of interest is War Of The Roses who has ran in class 2 and 3 company on his last 2 starts and was outclassed off a higher mark, back in lesser company, he could make his mark over a C&D he has thrived over, clocking some excellent times in this company back in October. I thought Sam Lord was big at 18s too but I've talked myself out of that one now!
In the 3.05 Lingfield, Andaman Sunset appeals at 20/1 in a pretty poor handicap. He won his only previous start over todays distance at Great Leighs for Geoff Wragg in a decent time back in September so handles the surface and Lingfield should suit. Connections paid 22k for him at the sales and he didn't run too badly on his reappearance last year so the break shouldn't affect him too much. If the horse was still with Geoff Wragg, it'd be about 7/1. My only concern would be the form of the Spearing yard. Any money for the Curley runner would be very worrying too.
In the 3.35 Lingfield, Internationaldebut steps back to a mile after contesting very hot handicaps over 1m2f in recent Saturdays at the Surrey venue. He arguably hasn't been getting home over that trip and has dropped a few pounds in the handicap as a result. He has won over C&D and the stable is starting to pick up again after hitting a bit of a flat spot. In a race which isn't particularly strong for the grade, racing just 2lb above his last winning mark, the 9/1 looks pretty generous.
In the 4.05 Lingfield, I like Saltagioo a lot and I backed him pretty heavily last time out at Wolverhampton. However, the Botti yard were not in form then and he weakened towards the finish when he looked in a strong position turning for home. With the yard in better (although not sensational) form, I think he could come out on top against some horses who find winning difficult. A multiple winner in Italy he ran very well behind Folio at Great Leighs in a very quick time. Back to a mile going right handed should suit him better than his other UK visits to the racecourse and 8/1 is pretty attractive.
I also fancy Imperial Harry in the 9.20 Wolverhampton, 15/2 seems massive but I don't trust David Pipe as far as I can throw him so I'll see how the afternoon goes before making a decision on backing him but his time at Kempton last time out was very impressive for the grade. He's up 11 pounds and this is very competitive but if it's a going day I'd be surprised if he was out of the first three.
