Saturday's Fancies

Tout Seul

Tout Seul

Senior Jockey
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
2,628
Limited but interesting races today. If Denman is fit then he wins but one of my favourite horse is up again him. Joe Lively. A very profitable horse to follow I love his gutsy performances. Never been beat over 24f on soft and a C and D.winner. An improving horse I can't let him run without the burden of my money. So I unit win and 3 place.

Another horse whose fortunes I follow closely is Bally Conn. Having declined a leg ( overruled by the missus:o) I persuaded a close friend to take a share. You all know the story and I want to see him win but admit to not being ecstatic when he does. Seems to have a good chance but I can't get a real handle on the race. So best of luck, boy.

Pancake is great to look at but his jumping just isn't good enough. Imo should return to hurdles. So will lay that one. ( Cue an amazing clear round)

At Lingers, my big fancy is Trafalgar Square who has a perfect record at the track unlike at Kempton where he lost LTO. Short price one for my taste normally but you can't turn down a winner. Only concern is that this week I've being playing a Leonard Cohen CD whilst on the computer and have been singing Everybody Knows as the tune has stuck in my head. I'l have to do the FC cos I'd be miffed if I missed out.

Finally I like Lady Jane Digby and Formation to repeat their 1-2 LTO probably but not necessarily in that order. Hayley Turner did well to get Formation home first LTO but she is not riding today.
 
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Interesting Denman special on the spreads tomorrow:

2.50 Kempton Denman Performance Index

50 points for winning the race and 10 points per length he wins by
Maximum make up = 350
Denman loses race make up = 0
Must start race for bets to stand.

Quote currently 66-72.
 
i wanna take denman on but just cant see anything there that can beat him i know that there is a king george second hennesey winner L and C winner all in it from this year but just cant see him not winning it by 5 lenghts or more to albertas run.

I can see there be being a big deal made of it if he wins mind with quotes of evns -10-11 being offered and everyone going he is back the tanks back!

Could see him winning this by putting in a performance of the low 170- high 160s.
 
Anyone concerned about his health, fitness or over-exuberance after being off the track for so long can use that quote to Sparb the market in their favour.

Lay @ 1.66 for 7.2 units
Buy @ 72 for 0.1 units

Denman loses = breakeven
Denman wins <1 length = -6.95 units
Denman wins by 1 lengths = -5.95 units
Denman wins by 2 lengths = -4.95 units
Denman wins by 3 lengths = -3.95 units
Denman wins by 4 lengths = -2.95 units
Denman wins by 5 lengths = -1.95 units
Denman wins by 6 lengths = -0.95 units
Denman wins by 7 lengths = +0.05 units
Denman wins by 8 lengths = +1.05 units
Denman wins by 9 lengths = +2.05 units
Denman wins by 10 lengths = +3.05 units
Denman wins by 11 lengths = +4.05 units
Denman wins by 12 lengths = +5.05 units
etc. etc.
Denman wins by 30 lengths = +23.05 units
 
At Lingfield, the 1m2f Handicap is very tough but Internationaldebut is massively overpriced at 10/1. He was slightly unlucky last time out behind Formation who got a lucky flukey passage, Kirby went for the far rail and it didn't work out. I think he stays the trip and he should give a good account of himself.

Everybody Knows and Trafalgar Square are now non runners so in my opinion Strabinios King should now be odds on, he's 7/4 which makes him a cracking bet.

At Wolverhampton, Doubtful Sound looks a decent bet at 11/4. He was unlucky at Lingfield last time out as he had to make his own pace, he won't have those problems today and should be well poised to come late and fast like he did 2 runs back at Lingfield .
 
I fancied Turkish Surprise a bit in the beginners chase at Kempton.

Only bet I've had is Tartak in the graduation chase. Osaka D'Airy is not a horse I particularly like, whilst Lightning Strike is too short for what he's achieved over fences so far. Hoping he'll get a comfortable enough lead on a flat track that should hopefully suit.
 
Gamla Stan said:
At Lingfield, the 1m2f Handicap is very tough but Internationaldebut is massively overpriced at 10/1. He was slightly unlucky last time out behind Formation who got a lucky flukey passage, Kirby went for the far rail and it didn't work out. I think he stays the trip and he should give a good account of himself.

Everybody Knows and Trafalgar Square are now non runners so in my opinion Strabinios King should now be odds on, he's 7/4 which makes him a cracking bet.
Click to expand...

Don't like the 10f handicap one bit. They all look handicapped accordingly and surely luck in running and tactics will decide the outcome. Something that it's hard to speculate on beforehand given the lack of a guaranteed front runner. Perhaps blinkers will suit Philatelist who may be the best handicapped for the trip looking at his Roseberry/Gordon Richards form but he definitely didn't go through with it last time after Kelly looked behind him turning in so well was he going.

Strabinios King has left a very capable trainer and joined one who looks a bit of a guesser by some of his placement, that would concern me, as would the fact that the horse doesn't settle and was beaten on merit off a lower mark over course and distance 2 runs back. I think Gallantry looks much more appealing. Connections have been playing around at the wrong trip with the wrong tactics to get him down the weights and I'd expect a much better show today from 1lb lower than when he last won over course and distance. Hopefully Glencalvie and Strabinios King will take each other on.
 
Denman's race is a tricky one. 4/7 might look good value some way out.

However, there has to be a chance that today might not be his day so what are the alternatives?

Albertas Run will struggle in the ground. Joe Lively had a hard race last time and the last thing he'd need is another hard race here before the festival. Trabolgan did nothing on his return and may well be using this as another stepping stone to the festival where his generous handicap mark could be exploited. An Accordion looks the yard's second string and Niche Market takes a huge hike in class. Madison du Berlais is the only one left and he's had plenty of time to get over his Hennessy exertions. I reckon he's worth a small interest but if Denman's on song he'll win by miles.
 
Steve T said:
Interesting Denman special on the spreads tomorrow:

2.50 Kempton Denman Performance Index

50 points for winning the race and 10 points per length he wins by
Maximum make up = 350
Denman loses race make up = 0
Must start race for bets to stand.

Quote currently 66-72.
Click to expand...

60-66 now
 
Anyone just see harry on atr?

"kauto star was there better horse last year "

Why is he talking denman down is he after a better price?

Or he just happy he is back
 
Great call. Not going to win but Madison was 20/1 turning for home for the Gold Cup on Betfair, should be a reasonable trading position, particularly if Denman is ruled out of the race.
 
I don't buy the RP any more and I called MDB as a value bet 'cos my daily paper had him at 33/1. When I saw he was around 10/1 I changed my mind. What a pr*ck.
 
I backed Kauto for the Gold Cup last night as I thought it was the time to get the best possible price
That was before listening to Harry Findlay this morning on atr - and it's shame the Ch4 commentators didn't or they might not have been left with so much egg on their face! I don't lay horses but I was very tempted to lay Denman after listening to that interview.

In the event I hovered between Madison and Joe Lively - and picked the wrong one LOL
In front so far due to a biggish place bet on Sheena's steamer Itsawindup who was 3rd and Lingers
 
Well called DO!

Looked like they went pretty fast pace - hated to see denman lose his unbeaten chase tag but still think it was a very decent perforamnce after all his interupted work etc, they pulled so far in front.
 
It's strange how everyone reads a race differently. Denman to me today looked almost sulky, not interested - he only put in one or two relly good jumps, and clouted the last - nearly keeled over - which wasn't obvious at the time as the camera was on Madison - but I just saw it on a replay.

I don't think they went veyr fast at all - and Simon Holt said after the first circuit that they were going significantly slower than KS's KG on Boxing Day.

Well done all winners - I had few inc Strabinios King and a couple of places at Lingers and Le Forrit and Polar Gunner at Ayr
 
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I'd agree with the way Paul Nicholl's read the race - from the RP

"He's run okay, he's run a solid race and he will improve for the run, although not enormously.
"I considered the writing was on the wall from a long way because he never wins from behind. He's got to improve between now and Cheltenham.
"It's quite possible that last year was a once-in-a-lifetimeperformance when he was at his very best and he'll never produce that again."
"The Gold Cup got to the bottom of him and he took a lot of time to get over it.
"I couldn't have run him anywhere after it and if you watch the replay he got very tired, and then we had the heart problem when he came back in."

He did struggle at the last few fences, and looked tired - but he has done such a lot, maybe this is it and he has had enough. Presenting offspring are often thinkers. We have a 3 year old by him in paddock and he has his moments too ....
 
trackside528 said:
Only bet I've had is Tartak in the graduation chase. Osaka D'Airy is not a horse I particularly like, whilst Lightning Strike is too short for what he's achieved over fences so far. Hoping he'll get a comfortable enough lead on a flat track that should hopefully suit.
Click to expand...

Good day then. :)

Well called BTW, Desert Orchid - gutted for you that you didn't back MDB.
 
So Kauto Star can never be written off and he attacks anyone who questions the horse but he writes off Denman as gone at the game. I don't remember him saying anything as such in the numerous articles since last March. I'm confused....
 
Gearoid said:
I see Luke is looking in.

1'm 1/66 he laid Denman for a chunk!
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You wouldn't believe it Gearoid I transferred a wedge to betfair on Wednesday and it still hasn't arrived.I have literally been pulling my hair out since yesterday afternoon when Kayf Aramis who is a pig in my opinion got chinned at 1.01.I have been backing horses that I am half hearted about for cash and watching them get turned over while knowing deep down the ones I would have laid on betfair are being beaten.
Such is life-getting a pizza and dvd later,missing the next 2 Saturdays punting due to a family holiday.Will resume punting on the 22nd.
 
That is sick. When your tuned into Betfair it's so hard to bet fixed odds and vice verso. I only ever do well on Betfair when it's the only medium I'm using which is probably why I did my bollocks on there last year.
 
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