I'm far from certain
If he gets 45% of the vote, that is a truly massive endorsement in the context. It's a significantly bigger percentage than any UK government has managed in my living memory. David Cameron is Prime Minister on something like 36%
I'm trying to recall what the original polling mark was for independence? something like 25% wasn't it? Salmond will argue he's put something like 20% on the idea in the space of 18 months. In most other FPTP systems he'd be heralded as a campaigning genius under these circumstances. It's a remarkable achievement considering the whole range of forces aligned against him.
He stepped down before as a leader and SNP support collapsed without him. The same might happen again. The SNP would be foolish to scapegoat him for an idea that they were never likely to carry on their first attempt, but if he manages to get convert 20% to the fold who broke the taboo and voted for independence who didn't intend doing 18 months ago, I wouldn't look to poo poo the significance of that. It's been proven before in elections that if you can persuade a voter to do something once for the first time, your chances of persuading them to do it again increase significantly
Whatever the numerical result, the moral winner already is the SNP, as out of this Scotland has to patch itself back up somehow. Well it gets devo max now (something which Salmond was telling Californian students only a couple of years ago was the best option available)
The SNP could have been humilitated in this referendum, I certainly spoke to enough people at the outset who thought they would be. Quite a few of them even went so far as to suggest that Salmond would conjure up an excuse not to hold it so damaging the result might appear
The landscape in Scotland has changed already i suspect, and the journey looks like a fait accompli now, the only remaining issue is when? 5 years,
10 years, 25 years?
The only missing ingredient I see is a charismatic leader in Salmonds absence
