Scottish National

A

archie

Senior Jockey
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Any views?
Can't have the favourite with Mullins' record in handicap chases and Cause Of Causes isn't that reliable. I respect DO's previous dark horse, Vicente, but usually a race for the lower weights and Heathfield has all the hallmarks of the plan of the Plan Man.
 
Definitly Red might be tempting at the bottom of the weights. Good form behind Black Hercules and Blacklion before tipping up at the Festival.
 
Pineau de Re off 10-8, on the basis of proven stamina and having being brought along to be spot on for Aintree if Newland hadn't overdone the not-showing-his-hand-to-Smith tactics.
 
Golden Chieftain would have been my strong fancy but Powell Jr seems to have jumped ship onto Royal Knight and for the life of me I cannot see why and his replacement is the only jockey riding who I will avoid 100% of the time.

As an alternative, on quicker ground I'd have gone for A Good Skin (trainer in excellent form and the horse is 3/3 runs in April) but will have to wait and see what the ground looks like after the first couple of races on Saturday following tomorrow's races and the expected rain shower. He did win a point on soft but has clearly shown a liking for better ground as you'd expect being a Presenting and soft ground may just expose his stamina.

Milansbar interests me if it's looking too soft for A Good Skin. There are a few sexy horses in here and this one isn't one of them but not many will appreciate a 4m slog in soft ground as much as him and he looks a pretty solid e/w option.
 
Do not dismiss Alvarado lightly...twice placed in Grand Nationals. He comes alive with a low weight on the big occasions. :)
 
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archie said:
Any views?
Can't have the favourite with Mullins' record in handicap chases and Cause Of Causes isn't that reliable. I respect DO's previous dark horse, Vicente, but usually a race for the lower weights and Heathfield has all the hallmarks of the plan of the Plan Man.
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I took 14/1 Vicente NRNB during the week (16s were available without the concession) and if he is still 16/1 on Saturday I'll go in again. It's not a race for settling for one bet, though, and I reckon there's value all over the shop.

The Timeform selection might win but I don't think it is a value price and it can win all it wants.
 
You won't find a Champion Hurdler in Kerry Lee's yard but you don't have to look far for good chasers.

She has literally doubled her old mans strike rate over fences since taking over in July.

Richard Lee has taught her well and considering the old man trained 2 Welsh Grand National winners I am sure she knows what's required to win the Scottish version.

Goodtoknow should go well at big odds he needed every yard of the 3m4f at Tauton and will still be going when others have cried enough..softer the better
 
Marble said:
Do not dismiss Alvarado lightly...twice placed in Grand Nationals. He comes alive with a low weight on the big occasions. :)
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Him and Spookydooky for me whose jockey booking and first time blinkers just screams big run expected.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I took 14/1 Vicente NRNB during the week (16s were available without the concession) and if he is still 16/1 on Saturday I'll go in again. It's not a race for settling for one bet, though, and I reckon there's value all over the shop.

The Timeform selection might win but I don't think it is a value price and it can win all it wants.
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20/1 available Vicente with a few firms now DO - 1/4 the odds 5 places too.

I like A Good Skin at 28/1. Has run well and won on soft before and looked like he stays all day in his recent 2nd in the Kim Muir.
Was getting 7lbs from Cause of Causes in that race and gets 16lbs tomorrow, and the ground will likely inconvenience CoC more than AGS who is more than twice the price.
 
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Double Handful said:
I was merely using him as a measurement to highlight the comparative market value of my selection Bear.
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Sorry yes, I wasn't trying to question your line of thinking. It was a general thought when I looked at the market. A Good Skin was on my shortlist also.
 
Double Handful said:
20/1 available Vicente with a few firms now DO - 1/4 the odds 5 places too.
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Yes, I saw that and took it ew tonight, DH.

Won't be my only bet in the race but I'm very much in the camp that Cause Of Causes is a very lazy selection. I can't see him getting close.
 
the one that Im avoiding like the plague is Seeyouatmidnight. Thought he was dull in the 3 runner race before Cheltenham and carried his form through in the RSA. Like the horse and the right type for the race but to me looks off form.
 
Milborough looks a big price at 40s with up to 5 places. Only 3 lb higher than for his win in the Eider, and 8 lb lower than when running in the race last year under less suitable conditions. Very much back to form last time, first 3 pulling clear and only 2 lb higher with a return to longer distances likely to suit.

Ballyculla worth keeping onside too. Change of headgear might sharpen him up, was only 13/2 for the Eider and wasn't beat when he came down, and won his starts on either side of that. Surprised he's as big as 25s in a race it tends to pay to look beyond the obvious in.
 
A strong renewal this season. Irish raiders Heathfield, Cause Of Causes and Measuremydreams are prominent in the betting but preference is for Golden Chieftain and Alvarado. Both are into veteran status at eleven years old but they are capable of getting competitive from their current marks. Golden Chieftain could be on a four timer if he hadn't come down when in command in both his recent outings. The last came when leading by seven lengths going to the last in the Midland's National over an extended 33 furlongs at Uttoxeter in soft ground and a rise of just four pounds for this race looks very fair. Has a different jockey for the first time in just over three years but he gets the assistance of Tom O'Brien which won't do his chances any harm. His mark has gone up 18 pounds this season and, like his yard, he has enjoyed a stellar season. Alvarado doesn't make it to the track very often nowadays but he is capable of a very good level of form when he does. He was well beaten at Newbury last month but it's likely that the outing was needed on his first start for eleven months. He stays very well, coming fourth in the Grand Nationals of 2014 and 2015, and runs from 4/5 pounds below those marks now. The booking of Paul Moloney, who knows the horse so well, is a bonus and Alvarado has performed well in five of the six races he has carried less than 11 stone over fences. A Good Skin is another to consider, he ran a very good race at Cheltenham despite making a few errors and looks the type to appreciate this extreme distance. He is pretty small in stature but generally a decent jumper, so if he puts in a clear round he could get very competitive.

Golden Chieftain. 1 pt e/w. Available at 16/1.

Alvarado. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 25/1.
 
Ricko said:
A strong renewal this season. Irish raiders Heathfield, Cause Of Causes and Measuremydreams are prominent in the betting but preference is for Golden Chieftain and Alvarado. Both are into veteran status at eleven years old but they are capable of getting competitive from their current marks. Golden Chieftain could be on a four timer if he hadn't come down when in command in both his recent outings. The last came when leading by seven lengths going to the last in the Midland's National over an extended 33 furlongs at Uttoxeter in soft ground and a rise of just four pounds for this race looks very fair. Has a different jockey for the first time in just over three years but he gets the assistance of Tom O'Brien which won't do his chances any harm. His mark has gone up 18 pounds this season and, like his yard, he has enjoyed a stellar season. Alvarado doesn't make it to the track very often nowadays but he is capable of a very good level of form when he does. He was well beaten at Newbury last month but it's likely that the outing was needed on his first start for eleven months. He stays very well, coming fourth in the Grand Nationals of 2014 and 2015, and runs from 4/5 pounds below those marks now. The booking of Paul Moloney, who knows the horse so well, is a bonus and Alvarado has performed well in five of the six races he has carried less than 11 stone over fences. A Good Skin is another to consider, he ran a very good race at Cheltenham despite making a few errors and looks the type to appreciate this extreme distance. He is pretty small in stature but generally a decent jumper, so if he puts in a clear round he could get very competitive.

Golden Chieftain. 1 pt e/w. Available at 16/1.

Alvarado. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 25/1.
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Good to see yourself and a couple others agree with me on Alvarado!
 
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