Silverburn

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A horse I looked forward to seeing over fences but I was not impressed with him jumping and I am not sure a sharp enough 3 miles will suit...though the ground should be fine. Not really looked at the race closely...up against much?
 
Yes ~ he doesn't really deserve to be favourite. Joe Lively has better form and is a more fluent jumper. I sometimes think Silverburn is priced up as if he actually was Denman, rather than his brother.
 
Yes, Silverburn doesn't really get 3m and is at his best on soft ground. To me he looks a good lay.

I expect Barber Shop (7/1 too big) and Joe Lively to fight this out.
 
Kempton 26 December 2007
1:20 NIGEL CLARK FELTHAM NOVICES' CHASE (SPONSORED BY STAN JAMES) GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £45,616.00 3m GD-SFT
CH4
6 run



No. Form Horse Trainer RTF % Wgt Jockey
1 22U-12 Barbers Shop 24 N J Henderson 43 5 11-7 Mick Fitzgerald 142 142 0-1 0-1
2 471-12 Here´s Johnny 24 V R A Dartnall 50 8 11-7 James White 133 - 1-4 2-4
3 011211 Joe Lively 12 C L Tizzard 75 8 11-7 Joe Tizzard 151 161 124 0-2 4-15
4 2F5-35 Premiership 7 M Scudamore 17 11 11-7 Mr J Mahot 108 104 102 1-3 0-0
5 004-32 Self Defense 43 Carl Llewellyn 50 10 11-7 Robert Thornton 126 52 1-7 0-1
6 1146-2 Silverburn 26 P F Nicholls 45 6 11-7 R Walsh 148 118 0-2 0-1

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Silverburn, 7/4 Joe Lively, 11/2 Here´s Johnny, 7/1 Barbers Shop, 14/1 Self Defense, 100/1 Premiership.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Joe Lively's two wins round Cheltenham make him the clear pick on chase form but he has not hitherto been able to show the same level of ability on flatter tracks like this. Preference is for SILVERBURN who was a Grade 1-winning novice hurdler, like his brother Denman, and made a promising start over fences when second to a smart recruit at Newbury last month. [MCu]
 
I agree far too short. I fancy Barber Shop to win this but if anywhere near 7/1 was available then I'd like to know where !
 
Best prices so far (Bet Direct)

Silverburn 6/4
Joe Lively 11/4
Barbers Shop 4
Heres Johnny 9/2
Self Defense 12
Premiership 100
 
For what it's worth, at 2.68, I would rather back than lay (although it is marginal) Silverburn.

The race he was 2nd in at Newbury was, in my opinion, the best novice chase run so far this season and, consequently, Silverburn sets the standard on chase form. Only Self Defense had better hurdles form and that was a long time ago and he isn't exactly a natural fencer.

It is difficult not to be impressed by the style of Joe Lively's 2 wins at Cheltenham but I have major doubts about the value of the form of both of them. Last time, Imperial Commander ran like a horse that had sudeenly forgotten how to jump and was awful, Peter Bowen's horse (that former decent staying hurdler that I can't remember the name of) ran a stinker and a lacklustre Ornais plugged-on for 2nd having been under pressure for about a mile and a half. It was not a dis-similar story when he won his other race at Cheltenham when the 2nd (Ice Tea) hit about 8 of the fences.

Maybe I have got it wrong, but before that he was a very lucky winner at Newbury and had previously been well held by Ornais at Wincanton so I find it difficult to believe that he has suddenly improved into a Grade 1 performer.

I think the main danger to Silverburn is Barbers Shop. Hopefully he will run his race and we can learn something about Big Buck's (PFN's much talked about French import that beat Barbers Shop last time out).

Here's Johnny is not out of this either and a good run from him will teach us more about Nevada Royale (another of PFN's highly touted French imports).
 
If Big Bucks is the second or third favourite for the Arkle that we're being asked to believe he is, then Barbers Shop's neck defeat giving 6Ibs on heavy, when the Nicholls yard were flying and Henderson was a bit more muted by contrast, reads like decent form to me, and I'd be amazed if there's 7/1 anywhere. Sounds more like a case of the RP tissue over-looking it. Barbers Shop is also one of the few chasers I've clocked all year as going through the 100 barrier, and experience suggests that those that can do this, invaribaly turn out to be good, and win again within their next 3 runs to something like a 95% strike rate. FWIW I've got him 15L's faster than Joe Lively, though clearly there would be an issue to do with one rating being achieved at 2 miles, and the other at 3. Also the ground at Newbury was heavy, where as tomorrow looks like being Good to Soft. Although Barber's Shop never won at 3 miles in a short hurdles career, there was no reason to suggest he didn't get the trip, and it's not as if Kemptons the toughest ask anyway. I've had a fair sized bet on him in a race I nromally don't do very well in.
 
Warbs

Wouldn't really disagree with any of that except that it's probably fair to say that Big Buck's prominence in The Arkle betting is as much to do with his reputation as it is with what he has actually done on the track in this country.

Out of interest, where do your figures put Silverburn in relation to Barbers and Joe Lively?
 
Originally posted by Relkeel@Dec 25 2007, 08:41 PM
Out of interest, where do your figures put Silverburn in relation to Barbers and Joe Lively?
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Third behind both, but then in fairness I only hold one chase rating for him and it wasn't the most searching of pace set, so the rating would be questionable. The only previous rating I hold for Hobbs Hill was similar, so I can't project off him to any effect. I don't recall him running much beyond 92 as a hurdler, (my records are about 80 miles away at present) but I reckon mid to lower 90's is his ceiling. That being so Barbers Shop would win by about 7L's. If I took them strictly on ratings earned as chasers to date, it would be something like Barbers by about 15L's from Joe Lively, and Silverburn about 8L's further back!!!! There is a bit of de ja vu feeling to this one in truth.

Last year I'd generated a rating for Aces Four that led to him momentarily topping my staying novices list after a result at Newcastle. I duly backed him at 80 odd for the SAC, but opportunity presented itself in a race at Cheltenham NTO. He was up against an odds on jolly and apparent steering job in Standing Obligation, who I had 12.25L's behind Aces Four. I duly announced this to elements of the syndicate and confidently (alright mischievously announced he'd beat the talking horse by this distance :D ) As it happened I was 0.25L's wrong, as 12L's was his winning advantage :clap:

Unfortunately, I held a similar rating for Patsy Hall that I do for Silverburn (just the one rating, and one that was low enough for me to believe it was concealing his true level of ability). Consequently I was happy to ignore the rating, and figured that if Aces Four was good enough to beat Standing Obligation by 12.25L's, then such a performance should be good enough to account for Patsy Hall too, despite me holding a rating which I knew was almost certainly unreliable!!!

I'm sure you can guess the result :laughing:
 
Just had a quick look through..

Although Joe Lively probably has the best chase form on offer though, as Relkeel pointed out it is by no means bombproof, I can't see three miles round Kempton on goodish ground bringing out the best in him either.. looks a thorough stayer to my eyes..

Would agree that the the 7/1 forecast about Barber's Sharp was crazy, though the 4/1 on offer probably seems about fair..

What do we think of Self Defense? Was a fair hurdler on his day and an easy 3 miles might just suit him.. heard him called a few names though..

Definite watching brief for me.
 
I agree with Chris - for me it's between Joe Lively and Barbershop, with the former narrowly preferred. If Silverburn had the form that Joe Lively has (even factoring in that Farmer Tizzard is riding!!!) then he would be an 8/11 shot.

Barbershop was only beaten at Newbury as Micky Fitz, for reasons best known only to himself, forgot there was a dog leg in the home straight leaving the horse to swerve around it himself!
 
Barbershop was heard to go "woof!" once or twice last season. I'm having a decent bet on Joe Lively if there's the expected market support for the other two. I'm convinced he would have won at Newbury despite the carnage at the last (replay the race a few times and you'll realise why) and he's produced an improved effort since. The form of that Cheltenham race has been knocked by some, but the clock doesn't lie.
 
I don't thnk Joe Lively should be so much shorter than Heres Johnny after the Newbury run - and Dartnall stable is flying.
 
Originally posted by sunybay@Dec 26 2007, 12:38 PM
Rory
I was impressed with JL at Chelt in the last race but for me at Nwb he was clearly well beaten.
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Suny,

between the last two, he's about eight lengths down and looks to be struggling to get back on terms; at the exact point where Here's Jonny is hampered, the gap between them is down to a couple of lengths at most. Looks can be deceptive.
 
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