Sir Erec

HawkWing · Feb 4, 2019

11/4 for the Triumph is generous. Wheelbarows have been ordered. 3l off Stradivarius 3 months ago. Super slick jumper. Stable could have the first three. Its all there in front of you. Goes off shorter than 5/4 if getting to the race.

Tanlic · Feb 4, 2019

2 lengths behind Stradivarius who would win a Champion Hurdle 11/4 looks a gift on paper.

One worry was he was allowed to dictate a no more than steady pace then use his flat speed.

Big plus was his jumping he really pinged a few and if he can keep that up who knows he could be Championship material in 2 years time to keep the JP bandwagon rolling

Desert Orchid · Feb 4, 2019

HawkWing said:
11/4 for the Triumph is generous. Wheelbarows have been ordered. 3l off Stradivarius 3 months ago. Super slick jumper. Stable could have the first three. Its all there in front of you. Goes off shorter than 5/4 if getting to the race.

Check that NRNB applies. The wee indicator wasn't there at oddschecker when I looked this morning.

Connections seemed fairly quick to suggest the Fakir wasn't the best in the yard after he won the Cheltenham race. I got the impression they felt they had another one as well.

viking · Feb 4, 2019

Think Skybet are the only ones going NRNB on the Triumph now and only 2/1 there

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nickf88 · Feb 4, 2019

Desert Orchid said:
Check that NRNB applies. The wee indicator wasn't there at oddschecker when I looked this morning.

Connections seemed fairly quick to suggest the Fakir wasn't the best in the yard after he won the Cheltenham race. I got the impression they felt they had another one as well.

Although not under the same ownership do we think Fakir maybe might take his chance in the Supreme instead considering his demolition job in the Triumph trial? Joseph would obviously love to win both races and splitting them apart could be the way to do it. If so, Fakir at double figure odds for the Supreme would look generous right now as an ante post punt.

viking · Feb 4, 2019

viking said:
Think Skybet are the only ones going NRNB on the Triumph now and only 2/1 there

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The 12/1 NRNB double they’re offering today with Apple’s Jade for the CH is tempting

Edit: unfortunately just noticed it’s a £5 maximum

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granger · Feb 4, 2019

Without knowing a tonne about the flat, he looks to be a serious recruit to jumps when there could be plenty of prizes for him in staying races on the flat

HawkWing · Feb 4, 2019

Im happy to take the 11/4 ante post. I think there is an ocean between him and the others.

Tanlic · Feb 4, 2019

Istabraq MkII here we come?

Desert Orchid · Feb 4, 2019

It looks like Sir Erec very much got things his own way yesterday regardless of his superiority. I timed the two races from the first hurdle to the line and the juvenile was much slower overall than Klassical Dream.

At flight seven KD was no fewer than seven seconds - 35 lengths? - faster than SE. From there to the line SE pulled back three seconds but that's hardly a surprise given how much energy he must have been able to conserve through the first three-quarters of the race and his Flat class. His last three ORs, earliest first, are 92, 105, 109 and being a Camelot/Galileo there would have to be every chance he could take that progress forward again through the coming year. Is it too much of a stretch of the imagine to suggest he could be 120+ by the end of the year?

I think it's fair enough to dismiss this race as a contest. He's been gifted it, presumably because nobody saw any point in taking him on and felt they'd be better served by having their own race for second so, relative to each other, I'd imagine the chasing pack can't be too shabby to lose only another few lengths on such a class act.

The other race was a small field but it's hard to imagine it could have been false race given that 'superiority' over Sir Erec and I think they were a good lot. How good I can't say for now.

Edit

I decided to check these races against Apple's Jade the day before.

It looked to me like the rails were further out on the track on the Saturday but I don't know by how much. If that's the case I need to factor in that AJ has run further but that will be countered to some degree by the two flights omitted.

The raw comparison, though, is that despite it AJ was three seconds (15? lengths) faster than the novices' race to flight six and a second slower from there to the line but that second was lost on the run to flight seven and still as fast as Sir Erec who'd been allowed to keep plenty in reserve through the race. It's no surprise she and Supasundae - the top stayers - were the ones to be keeping on late.

And another thing...

The going descriptions suggest conditions were faster on Sunday.

HawkWing · Feb 5, 2019

Not remotely enough to dent my confidence in him. It will be largely the same horses chasing him in Cheltenham. Not sure if they will want a stablemate french gelding beating the entire. Fakir D'Oudaires supported for the Supreme apparently. 11/4 about SE gone now, 9/4 best about. Hope there are plenty doing the analysis to oppose him throughout the next 5 weeks. Maybe the Dovecote will throw up something.

Desert Orchid · Feb 5, 2019

HawkWing said:
Not remotely enough to dent my confidence in him.

That certainly wasn't my intention, HW.

The internet etc gives us opportunities to analyse in a way that would have been undreamed of when I started studying form. Back then the Form Book was a weekly paperback book and a new one was published every week to include the previous week's results. (I'm assuming you're not as old as I am, HW.)

Now we have video recordings, pace analysis, the bounce theory, stride analysis etc etc.

I'm trying to keep up with all this so as not to miss an angle I could have covered.

At the moment, Sir Erec looks like the winner. I just wanted to check to see how substantive the evidence from the weekend was. For me, it isn't substantive but it doesn't mean the horse's chance is in the least diminished.

an capall · Feb 5, 2019

DO, two questions:

1. Did you have more punting success before or after the emergence of the internet?
2. Are you ever concerned that he preponderance of data and information on the web can cause you to 'overthink' a problem and dilute your instinct and 'tribal knowledge'?

HawkWing · Feb 5, 2019

Desert Orchid said:
That certainly wasn't my intention, HW.

The internet etc gives us opportunities to analyse in a way that would have been undreamed of when I started studying form. Back then the Form Book was a weekly paperback book and a new one was published every week to include the previous week's results. (I'm assuming you're not as old as I am, HW.)

Now we have video recordings, pace analysis, the bounce theory, stride analysis etc etc.

I'm trying to keep up with all this so as not to miss an angle I could have covered.

At the moment, Sir Erec looks like the winner. I just wanted to check to see how substantive the evidence from the weekend was. For me, it isn't substantive but it doesn't mean the horse's chance is in the least diminished.

I wouldn't need all the various theories to point the same way before taking the plunge. I think SE would have a good chance if they were to go the Supreme route. Think JP O'Brien was surprised by Fd'O win at Cheltenham as he knew this was at home.

The danger is Fozzy Stack's, in my mind.

Desert Orchid · Feb 5, 2019

an capall said:
DO, two questions:

1. Did you have more punting success before or after the emergence of the internet?
2. Are you ever concerned that he preponderance of data and information on the web can cause you to 'overthink' a problem and dilute your instinct and 'tribal knowledge'?

I've often wondered myself, AC. It's maybe a worth a thread of its own.

1. Back in the late 90s I was betting to pretty modest stakes. I would say my most prolific spell was early 00s to a couple of years back but my records don't have the kind of minutiae required to say so with accuracy. My stakes were increasing through that spell while I was using the internet just to back up my work with hard-copy form, a pen and a calculator.

2. For me you can never have too much information. I find it easy enough to discard what I can't use or don't understand well enough. At my age, though, I question the usefulness [to myself] of trying to take on new fields as I want more balance in my life and it's always on my mind that when I make the move to Spain I will be happily letting go of racing in much the same way that my interest in football nowadays is on the wane. I don't ignore gut feelings - hence my bet on Mont Des Avaloirs this weekend - but I do accept my instinct is as nothing within the bigger picture.

Maruco · Feb 5, 2019

an capall said:
DO, two questions:

1. Did you have more punting success before or after the emergence of the internet?
2. Are you ever concerned that he preponderance of data and information on the web can cause you to 'overthink' a problem and dilute your instinct and 'tribal knowledge'?

Great questions Colm.

I know they weren't aimed at me, but I'm going to have a good think about this. I think there's possibly something in what you're asking.

littlelad · Feb 5, 2019

Desert Orchid said:
It looks like Sir Erec very much got things his own way yesterday regardless of his superiority. I timed the two races from the first hurdle to the line and the juvenile was much slower overall than Klassical Dream.

At flight seven KD was no fewer than seven seconds - 35 lengths? - faster than SE. From there to the line SE pulled back three seconds but that's hardly a surprise given how much energy he must have been able to conserve through the first three-quarters of the race and his Flat class. His last three ORs, earliest first, are 92, 105, 109 and being a Camelot/Galileo there would have to be every chance he could take that progress forward again through the coming year. Is it too much of a stretch of the imagine to suggest he could be 120+ by the end of the year?

I think it's fair enough to dismiss this race as a contest. He's been gifted it, presumably because nobody saw any point in taking him on and felt they'd be better served by having their own race for second so, relative to each other, I'd imagine the chasing pack can't be too shabby to lose only another few lengths on such a class act.

The other race was a small field but it's hard to imagine it could have been false race given that 'superiority' over Sir Erec and I think they were a good lot. How good I can't say for now.

Edit

I decided to check these races against Apple's Jade the day before.

It looked to me like the rails were further out on the track on the Saturday but I don't know by how much. If that's the case I need to factor in that AJ has run further but that will be countered to some degree by the two flights omitted.

The raw comparison, though, is that despite it AJ was three seconds (15? lengths) faster than the novices' race to flight six and a second slower from there to the line but that second was lost on the run to flight seven and still as fast as Sir Erec who'd been allowed to keep plenty in reserve through the race. It's no surprise she and Supasundae - the top stayers - were the ones to be keeping on late.

And another thing...

The going descriptions suggest conditions were faster on Sunday.

Was very windy Saturday night/ Sunday morning which would have dried the course out, reflected in the non runners

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nickf88 · Feb 5, 2019

One horse I’ve taken from the Leopardstown juvenile race on Sunday was Chief Justice. Don’t think it would reverse form with Sir Erec based on that run but definitely has a bigger performance in him to my eye. Only entry for Cheltenham so far would be a Triumph rematch against Sir Erec though. My question is, would he need to be entered for one the handicaps already or is there still time for an entry to be made? He’s officially rated 124 in Ireland which maybe would put him 130 over here, maybe unlikely he’d get into a handicap off 130 also?

Edit: Just looked, he’d have got into the Fred Winter last year definitely off 130. Just hope he can still be entered.

Edit 2: 12/1 joint favourite for the Fred winter antepost. Sorry for the time wasting post.

granger · Feb 5, 2019

nickf88 said:
One horse I’ve taken from the Leopardstown juvenile race on Sunday was Chief Justice. Don’t think it would reverse form with Sir Erec based on that run but definitely has a bigger performance in him to my eye. Only entry for Cheltenham so far would be a Triumph rematch against Sir Erec though. My question is, would he need to be entered for one the handicaps already or is there still time for an entry to be made? He’s officially rated 124 in Ireland which maybe would put him 130 over here, maybe unlikely he’d get into a handicap off 130 also?

Edit: Just looked, he’d have got into the Fred Winter last year definitely off 130. Just hope he can still be entered.

The type of horse that the owner buys means it's generally a staying chaser they are looking to own. I wouldn't be shocked to see him bypass Chelt for now unless they think he is really well handicapped

nickf88 · Feb 5, 2019

granger said:
The type of horse that the owner buys means it's generally a staying chaser they are looking to own. I wouldn't be shocked to see him bypass Chelt for now unless they think he is really well handicapped

Thanks for the reply. Definitely one to keep an eye on novice chasing next season then. I’m sure there’s a bigger performance in him somewhere down the line.

Diamond Geezer · Feb 5, 2019

nickf88 said:
One horse I’ve taken from the Leopardstown juvenile race on Sunday was Chief Justice. Don’t think it would reverse form with Sir Erec based on that run but definitely has a bigger performance in him to my eye. Only entry for Cheltenham so far would be a Triumph rematch against Sir Erec though. My question is, would he need to be entered for one the handicaps already or is there still time for an entry to be made? He’s officially rated 124 in Ireland which maybe would put him 130 over here, maybe unlikely he’d get into a handicap off 130 also?

Edit: Just looked, he’d have got into the Fred Winter last year definitely off 130. Just hope he can still be entered.

Edit 2: 12/1 joint favourite for the Fred winter antepost. Sorry for the time wasting post.

Remaining entry closing dates

21 Feb – Ultima Chase , Close Bros Novices Handicap Chase, Coral Cup, Fred Winter, Pertemps Final Hurdle, Festival Plate, Kim Muir Challenge Cup, County Hurdle, Martin Pipe, Grand Annual

28 Feb – Cross Country, Bumper, Mares Nov, Foxhunters
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wilsonl · Feb 5, 2019

nickf88 said:
Thanks for the reply. Definitely one to keep an eye on novice chasing next season then. I’m sure there’s a bigger performance in him somewhere down the line.

He's by Acclamation, out of Freedom Pass and (to my non bloodstock trained eye) as far removed from a future chaser as you're likely to see Nick. He was running over 7f on the flat last May and frankly I'm amazed he stays even 2 miles.

Elliott after his Gowran run in October; "He wants better ground so he'll have a break then and will be a horse to come back for the Fred Winter".

nickf88 · Feb 5, 2019

Thank you both for the detailed replies, very much appreciated. If he’s entered in the Fred Winter I expect him to go very close but the market has already cottoned on. Just trying to find a bit of antepost value for the handicaps at the moment but it’s hard to find an ‘edge’ for me so far.

edgt · Feb 5, 2019

Like you Nick i was very taken by Chief Justice also; he did not get a hard race and has plenty match practice.

Current HRI rating is 133

granger · Feb 5, 2019

wilsonl said:
He's by Acclamation, out of Freedom Pass and (to my non bloodstock trained eye) as far removed from a future chaser as you're likely to see Nick. He was running over 7f on the flat last May and frankly I'm amazed he stays even 2 miles.

Elliott after his Gowran run in October; "He wants better ground so he'll have a break then and will be a horse to come back for the Fred Winter".

I'm basing it on his style of racing

Not quite quick enough to be great over 2m

It's brutal for a triumph horse to be placed when leaving novice company

Most end up staying and he looks to me to have the look of a chaser

Sir Erec

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