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numbersix
Guest
Does anybody know if there is a free online resource showing the going preferences for the progeny of a given sire (ideally flat and jumps) please?
betsmate
At the Start
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Flatstats.co.uk do a break down of sire progency performance by going.
It is not free, but there are some examples on there for you to have a look at to see if it is what you want.
I guess there is a much wider question about which stallions pass dominant characteristics on to their sons and daughters more than others.
It is not free, but there are some examples on there for you to have a look at to see if it is what you want.
I guess there is a much wider question about which stallions pass dominant characteristics on to their sons and daughters more than others.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Does anybody truly believe that there is enough of a trend in stallions' offspring acting on a type of going to make a difference?
I don't, but then again, I haven't done any analysis.
I don't, but then again, I haven't done any analysis.
Sheikh
At the Start
Yes definitley. Just off the top my head, Indian Ridge,Danehill dancer handle/like soft ground, Faths like a cut.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I am well aware of the supposed preferences. Is it enough to make a punting advantage? That is my question.
Sheikh
At the Start
Yes I'm sure you are aware. I think if you take the likes of Georgebernardshaw you can take it that the nest time he races on heavy ground he will run a lot better than he did the last two times on a sound surface.At the other end sons of zafonic never gave their best running unless the ground was fast. Basically I think you can disregard the performances of some stallions progeny on a particular surface. That has to increase your chances of getting a good price.
Just to add that where a horse would look like it is defying the norm as regards ground preference for a particular stallion you may find that the horse is taking after the dam i.e. the horse is not the stamp of his stallion.
Just to add that where a horse would look like it is defying the norm as regards ground preference for a particular stallion you may find that the horse is taking after the dam i.e. the horse is not the stamp of his stallion.
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Bar the Bull
At the Start
And therein lies the rub.
You use GBS as an example, as the common belief is that his best progeny act best on soft. But these are his five best progeny by RPR:
Choisir (best two RPR's were on Firm and G/F)
Where or When (best RPR was on G/F)
Fast Company (best RPR was on G/S, but wins were on G/F and Good)
Jeremy (best two RPR's were on G/F and Good)
Monsieur Bond (best two RPRs were on Yielding and G/S)
You use GBS as an example, as the common belief is that his best progeny act best on soft. But these are his five best progeny by RPR:
Choisir (best two RPR's were on Firm and G/F)
Where or When (best RPR was on G/F)
Fast Company (best RPR was on G/S, but wins were on G/F and Good)
Jeremy (best two RPR's were on G/F and Good)
Monsieur Bond (best two RPRs were on Yielding and G/S)
Sheikh
At the Start
Fair enough, If you take Fast company ( I don't think wins are relevant I think best runs are a better indication) his best run was on G/s so he roughly fits the profile.Also take out Monsieur bond who's best runs where also on ground with at least a cut.
Choisir is Aussie bred so it stands to reason that he would need fast ground as he was bred for their conditions i.e he has inherited this ability from his dam. Often European stallions are a disaster down there as they don't get any stock that can handle the fast conditions.
I'm not sure what the story is with Jeremy, his dam was useless but she had a half sister who was very useful in the states on firm ground.Jeremy did go on soft ground though didn't he . Also I'm not sure whether taking Danehill d's best progeny as the test group is the correct way of going about it.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
There do seem to rather a lot of cliched ideas when it comes to this subject.
If I hear one more "as a son of Turtle Island he will relish the soft ground" I shall jolly well scream.
Until someone produces a comprehensive analysis, haven't seen the Flatstats piece, it can, surely, only be used as another piece in the jigsaw.
If I hear one more "as a son of Turtle Island he will relish the soft ground" I shall jolly well scream.
Until someone produces a comprehensive analysis, haven't seen the Flatstats piece, it can, surely, only be used as another piece in the jigsaw.
Sheikh
At the Start
Yes like everything else it is another piece in the jigsaw with mitigating factors and exceptions. I personally think it is a big factor.
Just on my previous post where some top sons of Danehill dancer where put forward as exceptions I think it is also worth baring in mind that the best races are usually run on quickish ground and that those horses that ran career bests may have run even better on soft ground.
Just on my previous post where some top sons of Danehill dancer where put forward as exceptions I think it is also worth baring in mind that the best races are usually run on quickish ground and that those horses that ran career bests may have run even better on soft ground.
Sheikh
At the Start
True Gareth, but would Linamix have been such a success in France if he did not produce runners who relished the conditions. I'll go back to my point ealier regarding many successful European stallions being total flops in Aus as they cannot get progeny that can act in Australian fast conditions.One of the special things about Danehill is that he was a huge success down there also.
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numbersix
Guest
Thanks for the site Sheikh, and the following debate.
If I am going to have a reasonable bet (for me that would be anything upwards of £30 win) I would ideally like to be able to cover all possible negatives, and if there is a significant bias towards certain ground for a given sire's progeny I would like to know it, and then decide if it effects my bet.
The RP did a table last year which I kept but it is not exhaustive.
Following my thread about sites for flat race results going back over the decades, it is becoming apparent there are a few gaps in the market (so to speak) in respect of flat racing stats.
McCririck always reels off the winners of races 100 + years ago - where does he get his stats from I wonder? Obviously a team of researchers but where is the source material - evidently not on the internet
If I am going to have a reasonable bet (for me that would be anything upwards of £30 win) I would ideally like to be able to cover all possible negatives, and if there is a significant bias towards certain ground for a given sire's progeny I would like to know it, and then decide if it effects my bet.
The RP did a table last year which I kept but it is not exhaustive.
Following my thread about sites for flat race results going back over the decades, it is becoming apparent there are a few gaps in the market (so to speak) in respect of flat racing stats.
McCririck always reels off the winners of races 100 + years ago - where does he get his stats from I wonder? Obviously a team of researchers but where is the source material - evidently not on the internet
Sheikh
At the Start
It's an interesting topic. Bio-mechanics is a big thing in the states these days when deciding what stallion to put with what mare. Lenght of pastern, angle of pastern and shoulder, stride patterns, bone density etc etc all go into determining the type of ground a horse will like. Than you find the perfect stallion to fill the criteria you need and the mare produces the complete opposite to what you wanted 
Bar the Bull
At the Start
`
That is a fair point.
Shadow Leader
At the Start
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Been reading Enid Blyton, Colin?!
Of course there are no hard and fast rules concerning the ground preferences of a stallion's progeny but you can get a pretty good idea. Allied with the knowledge of how the horse moves at home and looking at the shape, conformation and feet of the animal, you can be pretty accurate when predicting the type of ground they'll go on before they even set foot on a racecourse.
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numbersix
Guest
Been reading Enid Blyton, Colin?!
Of course there are no hard and fast rules concerning the ground preferences of a stallion's progeny but you can get a pretty good idea. Allied with the knowledge of how the horse moves at home and looking at the shape, conformation and feet of the animal, you can be pretty accurate when predicting the type of ground they'll go on before they even set foot on a racecourse.
For years Strong Gale blood was always a fairly sure bet the animal was prefer top of the ground too.
Are you aware of any "free resources" in this field Shadow?
Shadow Leader
At the Start
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I don't know of any free resources in this field I'm afraid Numbersix - what little I do know has been picked up over the years!
Jamie
At the Start
Perhaps we could all pitch together and make a resource like the one mentioned? I'd be willing to host it and create a table if people would be willing to put the thoughts in.
Like most things in racing, there's no hard and fast rules and you will always find exceptions, what you therefore try and do is load things on the balance likelihoods. It also depends how you would seek to use the information. One obvious one that occurs to me straight away would be 2yo's or juvenile hurdlers where the absence of traditional form data means that you have to start looking elsewhere for clues.
As regards conducting our own research?
That's a big task, but then there should be enough of us to undertake such investigations if we could establish our own research unit to follow up on hypotheses. Bear in mind however, that about 90% of ideas usually prove inconclusive. It would be helpful if we could make a forum subscription to something like raceform interactive which we could access with passwords etc Some how though, I very much doubt that we could do this under the likely terms of the licence that subscribers would get. I'd be amazed if they were prepared to sanction use accordingly but it might be worth asking the question. It might mean that we could try negotiating an enhanced rate and share the cost, in much the same way as Sky charge pubs a lot more for a subscription that they do a residential user?
As regards conducting our own research?
That's a big task, but then there should be enough of us to undertake such investigations if we could establish our own research unit to follow up on hypotheses. Bear in mind however, that about 90% of ideas usually prove inconclusive. It would be helpful if we could make a forum subscription to something like raceform interactive which we could access with passwords etc Some how though, I very much doubt that we could do this under the likely terms of the licence that subscribers would get. I'd be amazed if they were prepared to sanction use accordingly but it might be worth asking the question. It might mean that we could try negotiating an enhanced rate and share the cost, in much the same way as Sky charge pubs a lot more for a subscription that they do a residential user?
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numbersix
Guest
I take it then that Raceform Interactive does allow you to query sires progeny ground preferences?
I am happy to get the wife to Scan the RP thing I kepy from last year and submit it to Jamie if everyone else is up for creating our own resource. While we're at it we could create a flat racing race records one as per my previous thread.
I am happy to get the wife to Scan the RP thing I kepy from last year and submit it to Jamie if everyone else is up for creating our own resource. While we're at it we could create a flat racing race records one as per my previous thread.