AN OBLIGATION TO STAND AND DELIVER
My guide to the Skybet Chase
The Runners:
L’AMI
Decent effort last season chasing home Kauto Star in the Aon Chase and far from disgraced when beaten 12L in the Gold Cup. Things haven’t gone his way this season and the handicapper seems to be very slow in dropping him in the weights. Will have no problems on the ground but looks badly handicapped at present.
OPERA MUNDI
A really smart improving chaser who has always gone well on this ground. Was reported as needing the run when winning at Haydock on his reappearance and whilst an 8lb rise for a neck victory is stiff enough, he is progressing nicely and looks an improving sort, Likely we haven’t seen the best of him yet and could be more to come.
JUVEIGNEUR
17lb higher than when he last won over fences some two and a half years ago but has run a number of decent races off higher marks in leading handicap chases including a narrow defeat at Cheltenham last season. Has been disappointing thus far this season and despite a 7lb drop by the handicapper he needs to step up on what he has been showing of late.
ALDERBURN
Comfortable winner off a 9lb lower mark last season at Newbury and has run well enough in his two starts this season. Gives the impression this galloping track will suit and the ease in the ground should play into his hands. Gives the impression there could be more improvement in him and likely to be in the shake up.
UNGARO
Useful novice chaser last season but has so far been disappointing in his second season. 3rd to Turko on his last start the small field may have not suited him and with a strong gallop more likely he could get a race really run to suit him. Dropped 6lb for that last run he will almost certainly be suited by the track and ground here today. Has plenty going for him today on that evidence and could go very well at a decent price.
RAMBLING MINISTER
Winner of a staying chase at Kelso in good style on his penultimate start but always struggling for speed over 3m last time and was put in his place by similar sorts that he faces today. Mark of 141 will require a career best and whilst he will be doing all his best work at the finish, he doesn’t quite look up to this at present.
IDLE TALK
Yard has been doing well in leading handicap chases this season and interesting to see Graham Lee on board today replacing Stephen Craine. Jumping has let him down but if the cheekpieces can improve his concentration then there is no question he is well handicapped on a mark of 140. Cracking 2nd to My Will on his best form last season and dangerous to write off even if his jumping does leave questions to be answered.
HARMONY BRIG
Beat Standin Obligation 2 starts ago and despite 9lb rise ran a pleasing race for a long way at Cheltenham over an inadequate trip. Step back up to 3m will surely suit him and he likes the ground but may just be a bit high in the clutches of the handicapper at present and will need to improve to uphold with Standin Obligation today.
STANDIN OBLIGATION
Never really lived up to his hype at David Pipes and lost his way after a few lacklustre efforts. 11lb well in on his hurdles form in reference to his chase form and hinted he could be as good over fences in his early days. Change of tactics have seemed to make him show a bit more enthusiasm and looked like he was coming back to his best with a decent 4th last time blowing up late on. Peter Monteith seems to get these horses enjoying their racing again and with that recent pipe opener he should be spot on for this. He looks the type to be strongly suited by a good gallop and soft ground and he looks to have outstanding claims of exploiting his fair handicap mark this afternoon.
AZTEC WARRIOR
Likes to make the running in these sort of races and has ran okay in his last two starts without ever threatening. Handicapper starting to drop him a little but still looks on the wrong side of the handicapper at present.
AN ACCORDION
Talented chaser with a big future and having shown nothing when the Pipe horses were out of form he ran a much better race last time at Cheltenham. Held every chance when making a serious mistake down the hill and done well to finish afterwards. He was going very well at the time and surprising the handicapper has dropped him another 3lb. Certainly more than capable at this level and one of the more interesting sorts in the line up.
YARDBIRD
Close 2nd to Alderburn off 4lb lower mark last season and application of blinkers seems to have done the trick lately. Up 9lb for a decent win in conditions last time but the one thing I notice is his form looks stronger going right handed. Has won twice going this way round but in uncompetitive contests and he may be flying a bit high in the handicap now.
BAGAN
Up 9lb for a very impressive win at Newbury last time in similar conditions but won that race going away in the style of a well handicapped horse. Rarely runs a bad race and whilst he is yet to prove he is this class or not he has run well in big fields in the past. Open to more improvement and could see himself in the placings if they go a good gallop.
DUSKY WARBLER
Fair form in novice chases this season without showing anything to get really excited about. Plugged on one paced last time at Newbury but its hard to know whether his jumping will stand the test. Looks on a mark he is more than capable of winning off and the step up in trip does give the impression that its what he wants. Hard to right off with a good round of jumping, but that is a worry.
OUR ARMAGEDDON
Was 14lb higher when winning the Mildmay Of Fleet Chase at Cheltenham 3 years ago but has suffered with problems since. Didn’t really show enough before pulling up on his reappearance at Wincanton and not entirely convinced he is truly suited by 3m. Has a great chance on his old form but needs to improve off that run to be considered and more than likely he is being lined up for another crack at the Mildmay Of Fleet. Ground no problem however and could place at a big price.
MA YAHAB
Mid 70s horse for Luca Cumani on the level and has improved this season over fences. Showed a really good attitude in testing conditions last time out but 9lb rise looks a tad harsh on the bare form. Open to more improvement but does need to improve to go close at this level.
HIMALAYAN TRAIL
One win over fences last season and hasn’t really been showing much over hurdles this year. Likely connections feel he is well handicapped and have been protecting his chase mark for something, but I would have liked to have seen him run with a bit more promise over hurdles personally. Yard in good form at present and always respected with runners at this level and was impressive on his chase debut last season. Open to more improvement and with ground and trip ideal he could be interesting at long odds.
BROOKLYN BROWNIE
In and out sort but came good when routed subsequent winner The Dark Lord 6L at Market Rasen in November. Needs to improve again now given the handicapper has had his say and a place is about the most he can hope for.
THISTLECRAFT
Improving sort who ran a decent race behind Yardbird last time but yet to prove he stays this far and the ground may be on the soft side for him (best form on good ground). Impressive winner on penultimate start gives impression he could win a decent race somewhere but looks to be facing a tough task 3lb out the handicap today.
LIDJO DE ROUGE
Hard not to have been impressed with his win at Wincanton and proved that was no fluke when dotting up in better class company at Folkestone next time out. Ground looks just about right for him and whilst he is up another 15lb, he gives the impression there may be more to come. Stamina not entirely proven and 6lb out the handicap but Stephen Craine is an exciting jockey booking and a strong gallop will suit. Clearly going in the right direction and cant be totally written off with yard expecting improvement over this trip.
HENRYS PRIDE
Plugged on well in a modest handicap at Cheltenham last time but 4lb high for that effort and 7lb out the handicap further still. Just looks one paced and whilst competent claimer takes 7lb off his back he does look up against it here.
KORELO
One time useful chaser who liked to pounce late for David Pipe but shown precious little since joining Steve Golling’s and was beaten quickly in a competitive handicap at Wincanton on seasonal reappearance. Dropped 34lb in last two starts but still not enough to give him a hope at this level and likely he will find himself in the 0-100 banner shortly. Outclassed here.
Summary:
A cluster of disappointing past performers and improving sorts battling it out for what looks a competitive prize.
Opera Mundi couldn’t have done any more but battle on to score last time but he looks short for what he has actually achieved and whilst the yard look to be keen on getting a big prize into him he may struggle to fight off his rivals late on here off what looks a high enough mark. Likely to be there again but the race to me has 3 or 4 that could be ahead of the grader and open to the improvement needed to score.
Ungaro has ultimately been disappointing this season but is well handicapped on the basis of last season’s form and he just hasn’t had the strong gallop he needs to show his true worth. This trip and ground can bring about improvement in a big field and with the handicapper being more than fair on him I think its fair to expect a big run.
The stage is also set for an improved run from Idle Talk and he is a horse that promises to win a big chase one day. His jumping has often let him down in the past but there’s no getting away from the quality he possess’ and with the cheekpieces applied today may be the best occasion to try and get him.
An Accordion is another I really feel could be interesting and he was far from beat until making a crucial error in a weaker contest than this at Cheltenham last time out. He has plenty going for him today and with proven stamina and ability to handle the ground he could be off a good mark to go close.
At big odds I’m interested in Himalayan Trail and Lidjo De Rouge as both look improving sorts who have shown ability to suggest they could be well handicapped at the foot of the weights and the trip and ground represents no problems for them whatsoever. At 50s and 25s there are few better value bets in the contest.
However for me this is destined to go to STANDIN OBLIGATION who looked rejuvenated for Peter Monteith last time and having travelled well until 4 out, he clearly blew up without running that badly. The handicapper has taken a huge chance on him and this trip and ground really suit this talented performer. Wilson Renwick is a patient pilot and I can see him steadying this smart sort towards the rear and gradually creep him into contention before asking him to take the race 3 or 4 out. He is a very good jumper with ability on the ground. Off his current mark of 136 he is unquestionably well handicapped and everything points to a big run this afternoon. I would be very surprised if he wasn’t thereabouts and firmly expect him to take all the beating.
Advised Bets:
2pts Win, 3pts Place STANDIN OBLIGATION @ 16/1
1pt Win, 1.5pts Place An Accordion @ 7/1
1pt Ew Ungaro @ 16/1
0.75pts Ew Idle Talk @ 25/1
0.5pts Ew Lidjo De Rouge @ 25/1
0.25pts Ew Himalayan Trail @ 66/1
12.5pts Staked
20p C.F.C & 1op C.T.C., named selections above.
Good Luck
Chris Beek
* Picture courtesy of Steven Cargill.
My guide to the Skybet Chase
The Runners:
L’AMI
Decent effort last season chasing home Kauto Star in the Aon Chase and far from disgraced when beaten 12L in the Gold Cup. Things haven’t gone his way this season and the handicapper seems to be very slow in dropping him in the weights. Will have no problems on the ground but looks badly handicapped at present.
OPERA MUNDI
A really smart improving chaser who has always gone well on this ground. Was reported as needing the run when winning at Haydock on his reappearance and whilst an 8lb rise for a neck victory is stiff enough, he is progressing nicely and looks an improving sort, Likely we haven’t seen the best of him yet and could be more to come.
JUVEIGNEUR
17lb higher than when he last won over fences some two and a half years ago but has run a number of decent races off higher marks in leading handicap chases including a narrow defeat at Cheltenham last season. Has been disappointing thus far this season and despite a 7lb drop by the handicapper he needs to step up on what he has been showing of late.
ALDERBURN
Comfortable winner off a 9lb lower mark last season at Newbury and has run well enough in his two starts this season. Gives the impression this galloping track will suit and the ease in the ground should play into his hands. Gives the impression there could be more improvement in him and likely to be in the shake up.
UNGARO
Useful novice chaser last season but has so far been disappointing in his second season. 3rd to Turko on his last start the small field may have not suited him and with a strong gallop more likely he could get a race really run to suit him. Dropped 6lb for that last run he will almost certainly be suited by the track and ground here today. Has plenty going for him today on that evidence and could go very well at a decent price.
RAMBLING MINISTER
Winner of a staying chase at Kelso in good style on his penultimate start but always struggling for speed over 3m last time and was put in his place by similar sorts that he faces today. Mark of 141 will require a career best and whilst he will be doing all his best work at the finish, he doesn’t quite look up to this at present.
IDLE TALK
Yard has been doing well in leading handicap chases this season and interesting to see Graham Lee on board today replacing Stephen Craine. Jumping has let him down but if the cheekpieces can improve his concentration then there is no question he is well handicapped on a mark of 140. Cracking 2nd to My Will on his best form last season and dangerous to write off even if his jumping does leave questions to be answered.
HARMONY BRIG
Beat Standin Obligation 2 starts ago and despite 9lb rise ran a pleasing race for a long way at Cheltenham over an inadequate trip. Step back up to 3m will surely suit him and he likes the ground but may just be a bit high in the clutches of the handicapper at present and will need to improve to uphold with Standin Obligation today.
STANDIN OBLIGATION
Never really lived up to his hype at David Pipes and lost his way after a few lacklustre efforts. 11lb well in on his hurdles form in reference to his chase form and hinted he could be as good over fences in his early days. Change of tactics have seemed to make him show a bit more enthusiasm and looked like he was coming back to his best with a decent 4th last time blowing up late on. Peter Monteith seems to get these horses enjoying their racing again and with that recent pipe opener he should be spot on for this. He looks the type to be strongly suited by a good gallop and soft ground and he looks to have outstanding claims of exploiting his fair handicap mark this afternoon.
AZTEC WARRIOR
Likes to make the running in these sort of races and has ran okay in his last two starts without ever threatening. Handicapper starting to drop him a little but still looks on the wrong side of the handicapper at present.
AN ACCORDION
Talented chaser with a big future and having shown nothing when the Pipe horses were out of form he ran a much better race last time at Cheltenham. Held every chance when making a serious mistake down the hill and done well to finish afterwards. He was going very well at the time and surprising the handicapper has dropped him another 3lb. Certainly more than capable at this level and one of the more interesting sorts in the line up.
YARDBIRD
Close 2nd to Alderburn off 4lb lower mark last season and application of blinkers seems to have done the trick lately. Up 9lb for a decent win in conditions last time but the one thing I notice is his form looks stronger going right handed. Has won twice going this way round but in uncompetitive contests and he may be flying a bit high in the handicap now.
BAGAN
Up 9lb for a very impressive win at Newbury last time in similar conditions but won that race going away in the style of a well handicapped horse. Rarely runs a bad race and whilst he is yet to prove he is this class or not he has run well in big fields in the past. Open to more improvement and could see himself in the placings if they go a good gallop.
DUSKY WARBLER
Fair form in novice chases this season without showing anything to get really excited about. Plugged on one paced last time at Newbury but its hard to know whether his jumping will stand the test. Looks on a mark he is more than capable of winning off and the step up in trip does give the impression that its what he wants. Hard to right off with a good round of jumping, but that is a worry.
OUR ARMAGEDDON
Was 14lb higher when winning the Mildmay Of Fleet Chase at Cheltenham 3 years ago but has suffered with problems since. Didn’t really show enough before pulling up on his reappearance at Wincanton and not entirely convinced he is truly suited by 3m. Has a great chance on his old form but needs to improve off that run to be considered and more than likely he is being lined up for another crack at the Mildmay Of Fleet. Ground no problem however and could place at a big price.
MA YAHAB
Mid 70s horse for Luca Cumani on the level and has improved this season over fences. Showed a really good attitude in testing conditions last time out but 9lb rise looks a tad harsh on the bare form. Open to more improvement but does need to improve to go close at this level.
HIMALAYAN TRAIL
One win over fences last season and hasn’t really been showing much over hurdles this year. Likely connections feel he is well handicapped and have been protecting his chase mark for something, but I would have liked to have seen him run with a bit more promise over hurdles personally. Yard in good form at present and always respected with runners at this level and was impressive on his chase debut last season. Open to more improvement and with ground and trip ideal he could be interesting at long odds.
BROOKLYN BROWNIE
In and out sort but came good when routed subsequent winner The Dark Lord 6L at Market Rasen in November. Needs to improve again now given the handicapper has had his say and a place is about the most he can hope for.
THISTLECRAFT
Improving sort who ran a decent race behind Yardbird last time but yet to prove he stays this far and the ground may be on the soft side for him (best form on good ground). Impressive winner on penultimate start gives impression he could win a decent race somewhere but looks to be facing a tough task 3lb out the handicap today.
LIDJO DE ROUGE
Hard not to have been impressed with his win at Wincanton and proved that was no fluke when dotting up in better class company at Folkestone next time out. Ground looks just about right for him and whilst he is up another 15lb, he gives the impression there may be more to come. Stamina not entirely proven and 6lb out the handicap but Stephen Craine is an exciting jockey booking and a strong gallop will suit. Clearly going in the right direction and cant be totally written off with yard expecting improvement over this trip.
HENRYS PRIDE
Plugged on well in a modest handicap at Cheltenham last time but 4lb high for that effort and 7lb out the handicap further still. Just looks one paced and whilst competent claimer takes 7lb off his back he does look up against it here.
KORELO
One time useful chaser who liked to pounce late for David Pipe but shown precious little since joining Steve Golling’s and was beaten quickly in a competitive handicap at Wincanton on seasonal reappearance. Dropped 34lb in last two starts but still not enough to give him a hope at this level and likely he will find himself in the 0-100 banner shortly. Outclassed here.
Summary:
A cluster of disappointing past performers and improving sorts battling it out for what looks a competitive prize.
Opera Mundi couldn’t have done any more but battle on to score last time but he looks short for what he has actually achieved and whilst the yard look to be keen on getting a big prize into him he may struggle to fight off his rivals late on here off what looks a high enough mark. Likely to be there again but the race to me has 3 or 4 that could be ahead of the grader and open to the improvement needed to score.
Ungaro has ultimately been disappointing this season but is well handicapped on the basis of last season’s form and he just hasn’t had the strong gallop he needs to show his true worth. This trip and ground can bring about improvement in a big field and with the handicapper being more than fair on him I think its fair to expect a big run.
The stage is also set for an improved run from Idle Talk and he is a horse that promises to win a big chase one day. His jumping has often let him down in the past but there’s no getting away from the quality he possess’ and with the cheekpieces applied today may be the best occasion to try and get him.
An Accordion is another I really feel could be interesting and he was far from beat until making a crucial error in a weaker contest than this at Cheltenham last time out. He has plenty going for him today and with proven stamina and ability to handle the ground he could be off a good mark to go close.
At big odds I’m interested in Himalayan Trail and Lidjo De Rouge as both look improving sorts who have shown ability to suggest they could be well handicapped at the foot of the weights and the trip and ground represents no problems for them whatsoever. At 50s and 25s there are few better value bets in the contest.
However for me this is destined to go to STANDIN OBLIGATION who looked rejuvenated for Peter Monteith last time and having travelled well until 4 out, he clearly blew up without running that badly. The handicapper has taken a huge chance on him and this trip and ground really suit this talented performer. Wilson Renwick is a patient pilot and I can see him steadying this smart sort towards the rear and gradually creep him into contention before asking him to take the race 3 or 4 out. He is a very good jumper with ability on the ground. Off his current mark of 136 he is unquestionably well handicapped and everything points to a big run this afternoon. I would be very surprised if he wasn’t thereabouts and firmly expect him to take all the beating.
Advised Bets:
2pts Win, 3pts Place STANDIN OBLIGATION @ 16/1
1pt Win, 1.5pts Place An Accordion @ 7/1
1pt Ew Ungaro @ 16/1
0.75pts Ew Idle Talk @ 25/1
0.5pts Ew Lidjo De Rouge @ 25/1
0.25pts Ew Himalayan Trail @ 66/1
12.5pts Staked
20p C.F.C & 1op C.T.C., named selections above.
Good Luck
Chris Beek
* Picture courtesy of Steven Cargill.
amazinlgy! Came out about evens in the end!
