So what now?

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
25,657
I think we should have a virtual Scottish National...

Actually, today we had our own 'virtual' racecard other than that it wasn't 'virtual'.

Because the big family GN get-together was cancelled the niece decided that each branch of the family was to research an old race that no-one would recognise, create a card for it, including colours, and everybody would get a couple of minutes to post a selection via Whatsapp (which I don't have but managed to keep in touch by phone and email) and points were awarded for finishing first, second and third.

The final leg was the Virtual National.

Despite missing one race through a little accident - whatever bug I'm trying to fend off it bit me in style today as I went for a pee and thought I'd fart at the same time, only I didn't fart... - I was the clear leader at that stage. (It helped that some genius reckoned the older duffers in the family wouldn't remember Erhaab's Derby!)

But the niece's daughter drew two selections per person for the big race out of a hat and I got fuckin Acapella fuckin Bourgeois and Yala fuckin Enki and was passed by a couple of others finishing with Erhaabesque charges.

I've just sent the quiz out for distribution but they must be finding it very difficult because they haven't asked me for the answers yet.

Still I enjoyed researching the old obscure races. But two of the brothers trumped me by finding an old US trotting race won by Wiggle It Jiggleit (which I selected since I can read his mind) and an athletics event with just lane numbers and colour of kit (Olympic 800m? in Munich?) won by USA's Dave Wottle (him of the white cap).

Maybe we could try something like that on here!
 
Rather than a focus on virtual where nothing can be learned or gained this could be time for everyone to brush up on their racing education

DO - you have been rating horses for years and putting up selections for as long but what is the method to your madness? Same to other handicappers on here - Maruco you keep ratings too?

Slim - You punt for a living, talk about what value means to you, what you see as an edge, how you deal with losing, how do you actually manage to get a bet on etc?

It's going to be a long summer, these are just a few suggestions
 
granger said:
DO - you have been rating horses for years and putting up selections for as long but what is the method to your madness?
Click to expand...

To share or not to share is an issue I've struggled with for years.

I've mentioned before that in the mid-90s I had a series of articles on my methods serialised in the Raceform Update (or whatever its guise was then) only for it to be ditched around the second-last instalment due to, I was quietly informed in a phone call, the fact that the publishers were bringing out a book on handicapping by official handicapper David Dickinson which covered many of the issues I had been exploring. David Dickinson kindly wrote to me congratulating me on being very close to the methods used by the handicappers.

I didn't mind at all that they stopped the articles, especially since they were upfront about the reasons. In fact, I think I was flattered to be told that I was on the right tracks.

Around 2000 or so I applied to join the BHA/BHB (whatever it was called then) handicapping team. I felt it would have been my dream job but, as far as I know, they gave it to Julian Muscat who didn't last long and went back to journalism, and by then I was too busy in my new job to notice if they had even advertised the job again.

Sometimes I feel keen to share, others I wonder why I should bother since it took me a while to develop the methods and people could take them and improve on them but not share those improvements and are therefore profiting as much from my efforts as their own. I see it as a bit like inventing something only for someone else to take the idea, make it better and make more than I'm making. Selfish, I admit, but there you are.

As for the original series of articles, I can illustrate how old they are by telling you that I wrote them using a Canon Starwriter word processor, in the days before I even had my own personal computer! I have a printed copy upstairs but obviously the machine and the disk used are long since obsolete.

I've since improved the basic methodology as personal betting experience led me to re-examine it and I think I took it as far as an amateur who was also trying to hold down a position of responsibility at work could reasonably do.

Over recent seasons, as we've been discussing, target-training is emerging as the next big thing and that's another dimension we need to look at.
 
Last edited:
I'd say Maurice that rather than revealing state secrets consider it a chance to pass on some knowledge

I'd never be willing to dedicate the time and effort needed to master the area but it would interest me to read (bugger all else to do) how someone who does and can operates
 
Desert Orchid said:
As for the original series of articles, I can illustrate how old they are by telling you that I wrote them using a Canon Starwriter word processor, in the days before I even had my own personal computer! I have a printed copy upstairs but obviously the machine and the disk used are long since obsolete.
Click to expand...

Does anyone know if there's such a thing as software that can take a photocopied document and make it available for copying as an editable document on Word?
 
granger said:
I'd say Maurice that rather than revealing state secrets consider it a chance to pass on some knowledge

I'd never be willing to dedicate the time and effort needed to master the area but it would interest me to read (bugger all else to do) how someone who does and can operates
Click to expand...

I only focus on jumps racing, and I'm selective with the ratings I keep PJ. By only doing what interests me it all remains manageable and keeps me on track. Most of my work is with the big Festivals in mind, so really it's graded trials and the novice hurdlers and chasers of note I look at when they happen, or make a note to go back to the race as time permits, and then do any additional work on cross/back-form. I suspect Maurice is significantly more comprehensive in the ratings he keeps than I am, so rather than discuss the intricacies which is pretty much impossible in a post, I'll try and capture how I go about choosing which races I rate.

When graded and listed races hit certain times against standard on the prevailing ground, or there's a handicap with a quick time I'll check it out usually pretty much straight away, and then note down any races for cross-form for later. I’ll only allocate a rating if I’m confident in it, otherwise I’ll also mark it up for later when there’s future evidence that I can take in to consideration. Doing lots of backwork on cross-form and previous races has the benefit of picking up other horses on the way through, and I very often pick up horses that I wouldn't have spotted using normal form study that I go on to rate and find ahead of the handicapper. The most important thing I do is watch lots and lots of replays, and then keep horses on a watch list, particularly horses that I deem to be unlucky, or tenderly ridden. I use just about every tracker there is out there, so when I have the time and inclination I can pick up any races I want to. In terms of the Festival I use my own ratings only as part of an overall strategy. For the graded races it is high up on my criteria but far from the only thing I use, and for the handicaps it is just one piece of a bigger jigsaw.

The same is true of the big Saturday races. I work on the big Saturday graded handicaps as time allows or if there is something specific of interest. Unraveling the graded handicaps is more and more requiring a triple approach. Firstly to find the horses that are ahead of their mark based on what they've done on the racecourse. Secondly to establish which horses are on a curve that you have cause to believe will continue to be so. Thirdly to establish horses where a rating is irrelevant (outliers), because a horse is potentially laid out. For the graded races it's much simpler and I usually have most of the ratings I need already, so it's more of a cross check with normal race reading. Certain stables will cause you to change emphasis because of their potential outliers, and therefore it impacts how or even if I bet in a race.

I generally rate big weekend graded handicaps at the 5 day stage in order to have any market advantage. It's a lot of extra work, but by waiting for the final decs usually prices go south by the time you get a bet on if you’re not quick off the mark. I either need to be confident that said horse(s) are running and back them at early prices, or I need to be hovering over the button when the markets go up to get the best price when the final field is priced up. If I can’t get the work done before the final decs I usually leave the race alone completely.

In times gone by I used to produce my own tissue, but I haven't done that for a long time now. I've usually a fair idea of what price I want and don't bother with the extra work and prefer to take the opening price (or antepost price), particularly if it’s one of the bigger stables. BOG the following day is usually irrelevant if you're on the right ones because the price will be shorter in the morning anyway, the exceptions being the smaller stables when I may take the chance and wait for BOG.

Ultimately ratings are subjective and in the eye of the beholder, and only worth it if they are making you a profit. But having an opinion that differs to the handicapper is where the edge is assuming your betting strategy and other disciplines are right. Interestingly both Maurice and I often closely agree on ratings that differ to the OH, and we go at the task independently, and probably with slightly differing rationale or methods. This continues to suggest that the handicapper can be lazy or one dimensional in his approach, and is why the edge is there. As a matter of interest I find that the handicapper and Timeform are getting closer and closer in their opinions, which again can only be good for anyone who produces their own figures.

I know Maurice and I use our ratings differently though. Maurice usually rates the all of the races on a Saturday that interest him, whereas I use my ratings as a traffic light to make me go and look at specific races, and then I use my ratings as one part of an overall race read amongst a number of other criteria. I know all of that doesn't directly answer your question, and it's a bit of a rambling answer because I'm not sure how to capture what I do properly in words, but I hope it helps.
 
Last edited:
That was a really interesting post Paul

I am on record as saying anything generally over 6 lines, i'd tend to ignore but that was a very good synopsis of your approach and I am glad i took the 5 minutes to take it in

I could probably think of a lot of questions but from a punting point of view

What chain of events would need to occur for you to confidently back a horse? Solely based on a figure and lbs in hand of the handicapper?
 
Maruco said:
Maurice usually rates the all of the races on a Saturday that interest him,
Click to expand...

I don't know if I'd put it like that, though. Because I really just take each Saturday as it comes, I tend to look for a 'pool' of races in which there might be a bit of value in the market. I'm very wary of non-triers and the better the race the less likely non-triers will be.

I therefore tend to look at Class 2 and better, worth at least £20k (jumps) or £30K. I might look at a Class 3 if the prize is bigger or if it's an important race for the track (because certain trainers like to target obscure races due to a past connection with the race or track) but you can count them on the fingers of one hand each year.

I've probably had form study's equivalent of a medial cruciate ligament tear for the past while so activity has been light and superficial. I'm hoping for a return to heavier training over the next few weeks and would ideally be happy to be ready to go into the next NH season champing for that first crunch tackle.
 
Last edited:
For those of you with an hour to spare, the Racing TV website (no login needed, I don't think) has a good film about the story of Nashwan. Carson is refreshingly honest in it.
 
Back
Top