So When Will The British Election Be?
- Thread starter Warbler
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Gearoid
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Brian sent an e-mail advising that Labour be backed around 2 months ago at Evs or 10/11. he said the worse case sceanario was you could lay off. Are you know saying that the Tories are over priced?
Unfortunately, with a two party system, and the candidates pretty well known years in advance (normally), I think we have to look at alternative markets in the UK, as opposed to the US where we have quite a few runners and riders, unless of course, you want to tie up money at short prices for long periods of time. Hence the question being "when will it be", not "who will win it"
The reason for seizing on this particular market is because BF have one up for peanuts and it can hardly be called a market such is the level of liquidity (well it can't) but if the same preference and prices are reflected in the high street, then I'd have thought the 10/1 about it being between July 2008 and December might be a decent bet?
The clue I believe is in Brown's last budget, where for the first time in years middle income earners in Southern constiuencies like myself actually got something
However, these tax breaks/ cuts, only come into effect in April. He knew when he presented that budget he would be the Prime Minister who'd have to win the next election, and it's inconceivable that he won't have built something into it for himself to campaign off, hence the April 2008 introduction date.
The Autumn would be just about long enough for us to notice?
Also the Autumn will dovetail with an American election that is likely to see the Democrats returned, which I can only imagine will boost Labours chances. Despite what we might like to think, we tend to ape America in a lot of areas and feel decidely uncomfortable with ourselves as a country, if we're too far out of step with them. In any case, no foreign politican(s) are more synonymous with the new labour project than the Clintons, and if she looks like winning the Whitehouse in November then I can't see it being anything other than a boost for Brown, as I'm sure we'll reckon we'll be Europes primary beneficaries etc (only British politicans and media use the phrase 'special relationship' incidentally, the Americans only use it at our request when it's convenient for us by way of sop). None the less, I think despite everything we might say and moan about them, we're actually quite precious about it, not the least because it annoys European Governments who might otherwise seek to out-flank us.
Before he can call an election though, he's going to have to have started the process of 'bringing the boys back' which means that the Spring could well be spent preparing that, especially if a Democrat administration starts doing the same about 6 months later. No politican in their right mind would want to be last man out of Iraq, as the withdrawal is likely to be even more chaotic than the invasion and occupation. So if Brown can start that process in the Spring, ahead of the Americans, it would seem shrewd to do so. Especially as he can afford to ***** Bush off electorally as he'll be a complete lame duck by then anyway.
The economic forecasts for the medium term suggest trouble, so going in 2008 rather than 2009 might have additional advantages, and now that the Cameron bounce has seemingly punctured (it remains to be seen if this is temporary or the start of a wider Tory neurosis) he doesn't look quite so formidable all of a sudden.
Recent behind the scenes appointments, and taskings to key aides at least suggest Brown's giving himself the option of calling a quick election, but having waited so long for the keys to number 10, I can't see him risking it this Autumn. If he goes soon, I suspect it will be May 2008, but by then he'll be through his own honeymoon. Provided he hasn't encountered any serious banana skins and the economy's looking healthy, I suspect he could get a mandate still though without that much uncertainty. It's just that the chances of getting a bigger one would appear greater in October for the reasons outlined?
My guess is that since the tax cuts were of his own strategic design, (in politics, egomaniacs always hold in higher regard their own ideas rather than other people's) he'll want to give them a bit of time to butter us up, which points to the Autumn of 2008
The reason for seizing on this particular market is because BF have one up for peanuts and it can hardly be called a market such is the level of liquidity (well it can't) but if the same preference and prices are reflected in the high street, then I'd have thought the 10/1 about it being between July 2008 and December might be a decent bet?
The clue I believe is in Brown's last budget, where for the first time in years middle income earners in Southern constiuencies like myself actually got something
However, these tax breaks/ cuts, only come into effect in April. He knew when he presented that budget he would be the Prime Minister who'd have to win the next election, and it's inconceivable that he won't have built something into it for himself to campaign off, hence the April 2008 introduction date.The Autumn would be just about long enough for us to notice?
Also the Autumn will dovetail with an American election that is likely to see the Democrats returned, which I can only imagine will boost Labours chances. Despite what we might like to think, we tend to ape America in a lot of areas and feel decidely uncomfortable with ourselves as a country, if we're too far out of step with them. In any case, no foreign politican(s) are more synonymous with the new labour project than the Clintons, and if she looks like winning the Whitehouse in November then I can't see it being anything other than a boost for Brown, as I'm sure we'll reckon we'll be Europes primary beneficaries etc (only British politicans and media use the phrase 'special relationship' incidentally, the Americans only use it at our request when it's convenient for us by way of sop). None the less, I think despite everything we might say and moan about them, we're actually quite precious about it, not the least because it annoys European Governments who might otherwise seek to out-flank us.
Before he can call an election though, he's going to have to have started the process of 'bringing the boys back' which means that the Spring could well be spent preparing that, especially if a Democrat administration starts doing the same about 6 months later. No politican in their right mind would want to be last man out of Iraq, as the withdrawal is likely to be even more chaotic than the invasion and occupation. So if Brown can start that process in the Spring, ahead of the Americans, it would seem shrewd to do so. Especially as he can afford to ***** Bush off electorally as he'll be a complete lame duck by then anyway.
The economic forecasts for the medium term suggest trouble, so going in 2008 rather than 2009 might have additional advantages, and now that the Cameron bounce has seemingly punctured (it remains to be seen if this is temporary or the start of a wider Tory neurosis) he doesn't look quite so formidable all of a sudden.
Recent behind the scenes appointments, and taskings to key aides at least suggest Brown's giving himself the option of calling a quick election, but having waited so long for the keys to number 10, I can't see him risking it this Autumn. If he goes soon, I suspect it will be May 2008, but by then he'll be through his own honeymoon. Provided he hasn't encountered any serious banana skins and the economy's looking healthy, I suspect he could get a mandate still though without that much uncertainty. It's just that the chances of getting a bigger one would appear greater in October for the reasons outlined?
My guess is that since the tax cuts were of his own strategic design, (in politics, egomaniacs always hold in higher regard their own ideas rather than other people's) he'll want to give them a bit of time to butter us up, which points to the Autumn of 2008
G
Gearoid
Guest
2008 is 9/4 with VC and only EVS with Ladbrokes. what price that VC's political odds compiler gets sacked this year?
cricketfan
At the Start
Though I don't think it will be 2008, 9/4 is still value. In my humblest of opinions it should be about a 6/4 shot, with 2009 around Evs and 2010 about 8/1.
The question is, what about 2007 ? I'm sure there are many reasons he'd like an early mandate.
The question is, what about 2007 ? I'm sure there are many reasons he'd like an early mandate.
Desert Orchid
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One political analyst on BBC 24 yesterday was saying he strongly expected the prime minister to go for an October election to cash in on his current 10pt lead in the polls.
He said Brown isn't a gambler but he isn't averse to surprising people. He, the analyst, didn't seem to think October would be a gamble. He seemed to think Brown would win easily.
He said Brown isn't a gambler but he isn't averse to surprising people. He, the analyst, didn't seem to think October would be a gamble. He seemed to think Brown would win easily.
He'd be absolutely mad not to go for this October, as the financial shite is about to hit the fan bigtime
But since it's been obvious for a long time to so many, that everything is going rapidly downhill in every respect, but nobody seems to give a monkey's, he might as well bank on the fact that everyone will go on getting plastered and reading Hello magazine instead of making an intelligent decision aobut this country's future.
But since it's been obvious for a long time to so many, that everything is going rapidly downhill in every respect, but nobody seems to give a monkey's, he might as well bank on the fact that everyone will go on getting plastered and reading Hello magazine instead of making an intelligent decision aobut this country's future.
K
Kathy
Guest
A difficult call.
Do Labour feel they are on a crest of a wave with their supporters given the results of recent polls or if they do call an October election, like HS says, will people start realising that there could well be a financial crisis looming in this country which could well affect many people. When you start hitting people in their pocket it may be enough to bring people to their senses and get them looking at alternative governments to run this country. Lethargy is abound when people feel comfortably off. When a couple of million or so people come off their set mortgage rates this month and next and realise their new mortgage may cost them an extra £100-£150 pcm, they may start to feel a little less financially comfortable.
Changing the subject slightly, it has been in the news that there have been a spate of horrific murders recently where innocent people, standing up for themselves have been murdered by yobs. One of these murders was evidently over a Mars bar. Many fingers are pointing at the police and asking why is it they are recomending people do not confront these uneducated yobs. The police don't seem to want to bother with them either. The solution? Bring a few 16 year olds onto the street to act as community officers. Amongst other things they will have the power to convisgate alcohol even though they are not old enough to drink themselves. Has the world gone mad? They will probably be able to direct traffic too, even though they are not old enough to drive. shrug::
Do Labour feel they are on a crest of a wave with their supporters given the results of recent polls or if they do call an October election, like HS says, will people start realising that there could well be a financial crisis looming in this country which could well affect many people. When you start hitting people in their pocket it may be enough to bring people to their senses and get them looking at alternative governments to run this country. Lethargy is abound when people feel comfortably off. When a couple of million or so people come off their set mortgage rates this month and next and realise their new mortgage may cost them an extra £100-£150 pcm, they may start to feel a little less financially comfortable.
Changing the subject slightly, it has been in the news that there have been a spate of horrific murders recently where innocent people, standing up for themselves have been murdered by yobs. One of these murders was evidently over a Mars bar. Many fingers are pointing at the police and asking why is it they are recomending people do not confront these uneducated yobs. The police don't seem to want to bother with them either. The solution? Bring a few 16 year olds onto the street to act as community officers. Amongst other things they will have the power to convisgate alcohol even though they are not old enough to drink themselves. Has the world gone mad? They will probably be able to direct traffic too, even though they are not old enough to drive. shrug::
Desert Orchid
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Like it or not, there is no credible alternative to Labour.
K
Kathy
Guest
Sad isn't it 
Personally, I think almost any alternative is preferable! Well, maybe not the Lib Dems as they think we should be ruled by the French and Germans 
Meanwhile bankrupcies and repossessions are climbing evr higher, our defences and armed forces are in total disarray, our old people are abused and starved in their care homes, and most people's private sector pensions have been plundered to pay the inflated goldplated ones of people like Alastair Campbell, John Prescott & assorted spineless MPs, and those clowns at the Environment Agency who've allowed half the country to be flooded.
I think I'd better take the dogs out for a walk before I burst a blood vessel!
Meanwhile bankrupcies and repossessions are climbing evr higher, our defences and armed forces are in total disarray, our old people are abused and starved in their care homes, and most people's private sector pensions have been plundered to pay the inflated goldplated ones of people like Alastair Campbell, John Prescott & assorted spineless MPs, and those clowns at the Environment Agency who've allowed half the country to be flooded.
I think I'd better take the dogs out for a walk before I burst a blood vessel!
A combination of 2 significant recessions, though more pertinently 'Black Wednesday' and the ERM fiasco meant that the Tories went a long way towards forfieting their reputation for prudent economic management and haven't really ever regained it (difficult to do from opposition). Indeed it's an area that labour have consistantly out-scored them on in these issue by issue polls that ask the question 'who doyou most trust? etc'. Indeed, when writing up my own assessment of the Blair years a few months ago, I seem to think I suggested that this was probably his biggest legacy, and also traced it to Gordon Brown, and to no small extent Kenneth Clarke.
In that respect Clarke mapped out the course, Brown steered the ship home safely, and Blair took the credit.
History has also proven before that there probably is such a thing as a 'good' election to lose (usually in line with the economic cycle). Despite a period of sustained stability, this next one is starting to look like a good candidate, (it's just that politicians never seem to believe in the concept, until given the chance for retrospective reflection).
Although it hasn't started just yet, there is a sense I think that media pressure fuelling expectation can to some extent bounce a Government into an election unless they are unable to quell it. Failure to manage this process can look like indecision. I'd have thought too, that the spectre of Callaghan's position going into the Autumn of 1978 might resonate as well. There's a feeling he'd have won, if he went early, instead he held on, things got worse (Winter of discontent) and the rest as they say washistory by the time he'd lost a confidence motion and was forced to face the music in May 1979. Clearly Brown's in no danger of falling at the same precise hurdle, but the idea of strikign whilst the irons hot, must be being assessed.
Sure does. And as I predicted, the shite has starte4d to hit the fan, so far as the economy is concerned, and it will get worse before ti gets better. All the 'fixed term' mortgages whcih were tossed around like confetti a couple of years ago are about to run out, so a lot of people's interest [& debt!] is about to rise substantially. Imo that stunt of inviting Margaret Thatcher to Downing Street today is the best warning sign we've had that an election is on the way :suspect: