Some Stats

P

pawras

Apprentice
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Nov 27, 2017
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I have my own DB of past races, I generate my own kpi’s etc etc.

Anyway I’ve also loaded up the data that’s available from data.betfair.com so as to enhance my analysis, as such I have my version of bsp where by it’s the last price traded before the off, plus also record the price traded at around 700am.

As such I did a bit of analysis to compare isp against my version of bsp and the 700am price and came up with the following. Note the betfair prices have had no commission deducted.

See what you think….

Median Odds All Races.jpg
 
Desert Orchid said:
Congratulations, pawras, on such an interesting first post.

What would you deduce from the stats?
Click to expand...

On average in stakes races the difference between bsp and isp for the winner once you take commission into account is fag paper thin.
On average winners shorten on betfair from earlies to bsp by about 7%.
If you’re not trading etc then back early with BOG if possible.


Danny’s interest is primarily big field races so I produced this for him.
The amount that winners tends to shorten on betfair for AW races is quite dramatic , but that is because there are only a very small number of big field races on AW.
Median Odds 16plus runners.jpg
 
Last edited:
pawras said:
If you’re not trading etc then back early with BOG if possible.
Click to expand...

Excellent. That indeed is my MO and Slim Chance has told me more than once it's the right way for me to operate given I pretty much need to get all my bets on by about 10.30am.
 
How 'statistically strong' is the OR broken down by GB and IRE, race type and hcap vs stks?

So if you blindly backed the stand alone top OR in each race since 2001 what would you get?


1738100061954.png
 
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