Stop At A Winner

[walsworth]

My selection process throws up anything from 2 to 8 possible bets per day. Very often I start with a winner and then it all disappears later. My bets are mostly less than 6/1 so a good strike rate is essential. I have recently started stopping as soon as I show a profit and I’m trying not to check the later results.

 

[Ian_Davies]

That makes about as much sense as a trainers in form system working 30 days in arrears - either it's a good bet, or it isn't, and the fact your last bet may have won has zero to do with anything.

We need a second opinion - I suggest from Ms India (unless she's already Mrs Walsworth by now).

 

[chaumi]

But it's fundamentally a questionable approach.

Assuming you fancy each one as strongly as any others, why should horse 1, 2, 3, etc on day 2 have any more (or less) chance of winning (or losing) than horses 2,3,4,5,6 on day 1 (assuming you had horse 1 a winner and stopped there).

Not knowing what the later results were doesn't alter the fact they were winners (if any were).

Unless you're backing in specific types of races (or, more to the point, your winners are coming from specific types of races because whatever selection process you're using 'works' better in them), then it doesn't make logical sense that you get early winners from a set of similarly-derived selections.

Maybe there's more/some value in thinking 'why are my earlier runners throwing up more winners', and (if you can identify it) then doubling down (or using your selection process) with that factor or those factors in mind.


***Edit Ah, Ian said the same thing more succinctly. Editorial skills!!

 

[walsworth]

I’m actually not even checking all selections at the moment as being in hospital I am limited to using my phone.
I actually did 2 bets today, loser and a 9/4 winner so did not look any further.
I am well aware of the gambler’s fallacy but like to defy it!

Incidentally I believe in Bigfoot as well.

 

[Ian_Davies]

I actually did 2 bets today, loser and a 9/4 winner

The reality, I strongly suspect here, is that Walsey and Ms Bollywood had a tipping challenge, Walsey put up a loser and the lucky git's stunning nurse put up a 9/4 winner.

 

[NHughes]

Where's Billion when you need him
Good luck