Sunday 1st Feb - Today's Bets, Betting, Race & Runner Analysis + Future Pointers From Races

[chaumi]

Potential bets today at Leopardstown, Musselburgh. Market Rasen. All noted on first scans late last night and early this morning.

Three possibles at Sha Tin later at 33+. Small stakes for an interest - Autumn Vibes (in a couple of mins), Giddy Up, Mighty Steed

As always, actual bets depend on prices nearer the off and a deeper analysis of other runners. Note: 'deeper analysis' in Chaumi World means 2-3 mins, maybe 4!

Several of these will be watchers. Several may be scrubbed/postponed for consideration another day. A few not noted yet might pop up as backable.

There's a question mark (I think) against Lucinda's team in general. Plenty of semi-surprising heavy beatings recently, and there might be something up. Today may well confirm or deny.

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Galileo Dame 12.40 Leopardstown The beating into 2nd in the Limerick maiden will have been a surprise to the yard. But there's a fair chance the winner there is actually useful. Galileo Dame doesn't appear entered up at Cheltenham, maybe because of that beating. This might now be a season-saver. The yard also runs Shoda under James Bowen, that looks a worry. But I can't see past GD if the price is big enough. Hard to tell which way it will go from here so it's a wait till later, a big drift might be a concern.

Talk The Talk 1.40 Leop My ante post on Talk The Talk gets some fair questions if he doesn't jump the last tanking here, whatever happens on the run-in.

2.45 Sa Majeste for fun.

Anzadam 3.20 Could be the ground will make a difference, double figures might make this too attractive to just watch.

4.27 If it's been a reasonable day, Tiktok Casey looks like a fun bet at maybe somewhere in the 30s+

12.55 Musselburgh It may be daft taking on the top two here, but it's interesting that Lucinda persists at this level with Smoke Trail. Could he get away from them and keep going? Or maybe unsettle the odds on favorite if they take each other on? 20s to find out.

Jukebox King 1.17 Market Rasen

Worth The Walk 1.47 MR

Fortescue 2.55 MR The old boy will have to prove he still has it, but Henry Daly persists, and this is the lowest class he's run in for a long time.

Bois Guillbert 2.30 Musselburgh Might be too big to leave alone here.

Cadell/Inis Oirr 3.05 if either goes off in/close to the 20s

Whiskey On Ice 4.15 Muss

 

[chaumi]

Closing update...


Think I was right to doubt the overall wellbeing of the Russell yard. Expected Smoke Trail to at least get a little closer than he did in the first at Musselburgh. So, that told me to leave her others alone. There will be other days. And they proceeded ro run like 3-legged woodens. However, Idem did run a good race later in the afternoon. Need to see some consistency, though, before seriously considering anything else.

Galileo Dame 12.40 Leopardstown The beating into 2nd in the Limerick maiden will have been a surprise to the yard. But there's a fair chance the winner there is actually useful. Galileo Dame doesn't appear entered up at Cheltenham, maybe because of that beating. This might now be a season-saver. The yard also runs Shoda under James Bowen, that looks a worry. But I can't see past GD if the price is big enough. Hard to tell which way it will go from here so it's a wait till later, a big drift might be a concern. ** Disappointing, not much more you can say.

Talk The Talk 1.40 Leop My ante post on Talk The Talk gets some fair questions if he doesn't jump the last tanking here, whatever happens on the run-in. Thought he didn't quite get there, but 1 inch counts (as the x said to the y)

2.45 Sa Majeste for fun. Not much fun there!!

Anzadam 3.20 Could be the ground will make a difference, double figures might make this too attractive to just watch. **Only 8s when I looked, not big enough. I do hope he gets a run in the Champion, though. This might not have been an illustration of true ability. Got an awful lot to do, though.

12.55 Musselburgh It may be daft taking on the top two here, but it's interesting that Lucinda persists at this level with Smoke Trail. Could he get away from them and keep going? Or maybe unsettle the odds on favorite if they take each other on? 20s to find out. **Ran well below what I suspect he's really capable of. In time, might prove the run wrong.

Jukebox King 1.17 Market Rasen **Decided against this, thought it might be too tough for the Bailey runner

Worth The Walk 1.47 MR **Ran OK, looking a potential winner at one point. But not good enough.

Fortescue 2.55 MR The old boy will have to prove he still has it, but Henry Daly persists, and this is the lowest class he's run in for a long time. **Sadly, had to work hard to get next to nowhere. I hope this wasn't his last race and gets another chance to show it wrong. But don't risk him, Henry

Bois Guillbert 2.30 Musselburgh Might be too big to leave alone here. ** Was big, but as per above, best to leave Lucinda's alone till there is some proof nothing's wrong.

Cadell/Inis Oirr 3.05 if either goes off in/close to the 20s ** As above

Whiskey On Ice 4.15 Muss ** Did look a very fair 27 not long before the off, and every chance on paper he could handle most of this field. That's the way it went, looking very much like he'd outbattle the eventual winner from the last. Shame, biggest bet of the day. But a good run, although didn't cover the places.

4.27 Leop If it's been a reasonable day, Tiktok Casey looks like a fun bet at maybe somewhere in the 30s+ **Took 28 early, had to go out so missed it. Sounds like Casey gave it a right good go, finishing 3rd beaten under 2 lengths.

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The only just scraped it but it was the most important win of the day award goes to Talk The Talk.

The I think you gave it everything, it just wasn't quite enough but I'm proud of you award goes to Whiskey On Ice and Tik Tok Casey (shared).

 

[Outsider]

I hope they retire Fortescue.

 

[chaumi]

I hope they retire Fortescue.

It did look time yesterday, didn't it.

The only thing is...Henry Daly hasn't had a season so far that he might typically have. Hard to see at this point which youngsters might be running in the Class 2 chases in future a la Rapper, Fortescue etc, if any.

Could some in the yard just be under a bit of a cloud? I guess it's possible, and that might include Fortescue. But he is 12.

 

[Outsider]

I think Fortescue has been running poor for a while Chaum.
Veterans chase is his only hope,but wouldn't hold my breath.