28th December 2008
Good Morning;
Some interesting races at Lingfield today and I have bunged together a value Ew lucky 15.
Rapid City (12.15) was a welcome winner for us recently and impressive that day (hung across the course and still stamped his authority) he is expected to continue his return to form back in handicap company. A mark of 67 is considered more than winnable off and James Doyle gets on very well with this quirky type. He lacks to track a good pace and he should get that from the free going Zach’s Harmony who tends to pull hard in front before weakening. Plenty in here take a grip and that could mean stacking on the bend for Strike Force, Bavarica, Climate and Gizmondo (looks a good thing when stepped up to 12f at this level) when the pace trackers Rapid City and Formidable Guest quicken. The latter of those finds little off the bit but is in good form, however Rapid City is a well handicapped type who gives the impression he could rack up a sequence at a lowly level. 11/4 looks a solid price to me and I expect him to follow up his recent win. Resentful Angel is interesting on her handicap debut but I have my doubts over whether she will get 10f and a better opportunity may come over the extended mile at Wolverhampton. Gizmondo would be the one ew for me staying on too late and he should be a good bet for us shortly.
FANTASY GLADIATOR (Ew)(1.15) looks another strong bet for us today and having not been greatly drawn at Great Leigh’s last time the son of Ishiguru travelled really well before weakening late on. A bit keen to get the 6f he suggested a drop back to 5f would help and for me he has plenty going for him here. Hillside Lad the favourite has been running well over 6f showing speed and keeping on but whilst he should have enough pace to go well over 5f I feel he is the type that would be piped off late in the straight. Drawn 7 he also may have problems getting across and may have to race deep. Drawn in 1 Fantasy Gladiator should be able to track the pace without pulling back over 5f and I would fancy him to come with a strong late rattle. He is a horse that has caught the eye a few times on the Newmarket gallops and for me I don’t see how Green Onions will uphold the Great Leigh’s form back over this trip especially with Fantasy Gladiator better drawn. As I have said I’m no fan of the short priced favourite and would be very keen to lay him. Fantasy is the value however at 9/2 and rates a good ew for me today.
The return to Lingfield will suit Bonus (2.15) who has been running over too far at Kempton (doesn’t quite get 7f) and that would have to be my worry here today. I’m not sure where the pace angle comes form in this contest either which for me could lead to us getting some cracking value today. It’s been over a year since Naomh Geileis last run but over a mile at Ascot that day she failed to quicken late on chasing home a trio of smart types beaten only 4L. Winner Ibn Khaldun was a subsequent Group 1 winner, whilst 2nd placed Redolent collected twice last spring including in listed company. The 3rd landed 3 races in quick succession at the end of this season rounding off in the Churchill Stakes, whilst the 5th placed Jedediah was a close 8th in the Silver Bowl before running 6th in the Britannia. He ended the season with a fine success in a strong 0-105 Newmarket handicap. Sixth placed Meeriss has also been in good form this term placing on three occasions in smart company and holds an official mark of 97. Previously outpaced over 6f in the Sirenia Stakes at Kempton Naomh Geileis stayed on strongly not beaten far by smart listed performers Philario and Red Alert Day. Only on her first two starts (beat Group 1 winner Nahoodh on debut) and on her final start (4th to Ibn Khaldun) has she either made the running or tracked the pace and in a race where there are plenty of hold up performers who need a strong gallop she could end up getting it very easy up front. The annoying thing is only 7 runners which means only two places but in my opinion she’ll either win or come nowhere so I’m prepared to take that chance as at 12/1 value is on our side.
The race looks like this for me, Bonus (better over 6f, needs strong pace to come off), Aeroplane (Not convinced he gets 7f, 6.5f would be ideal. Another who likes to come off a strong pace), Gallantry (wants this trip or 1m but really needs a quick pace and doesn’t look that well handicapped, plus 1lb out handicap), Nezami (doesn’t find a lot for pressure, looks to need a mile now), Alpes Maritimes (could be well handicapped but no 7f sprinter and wants at least 10f and 2lb out handicap) and finally Electric Warrior (normally dropped in, has been doing well in claimers but 4lb out handicap). This for me means that there is every chance the Johnson horse can get it easy up front and most of his horses don’t want for fitness after a break. If allowed an uncontested lead I have no doubts she is well handicapped enough to collect, and seeing she stays a mile she could end up outstaying her rivals.
When you look back on that Ascot run, the 1st 6 home have the following official ratings now, 117, 110, 109, 97, 102 and 97. This suggests that whilst getting 3lb on that occasion she is definitely well in if she can prove she has progressed from 2 to 3. At 12/1 with her yard in great form I’m willing to take that chance.
The opposite occurs in the 2.45 where there is an abundance of early pace which will surely lead to the winner coming from off the pace. Both Turn On The Style and Maltese Falcon like to bowl along at a strong pace and with Epic Odyssey looking a tad outclassed and another who likes to go forward it could pay to look at both Ebraam and Matsunosuke who love to come off strong paces. The latter collected nicely last week at Great Leighs and gave the impression he could still be ahead of the handicapper. He is an improving type who on his last start at this course chased home the smart sprinter Conquest. In great form at present he wasn’t far behind Turn On The Style on a track that wouldn’t have suited 3 runs ago and back around him track I fancy him to prove his 2lb rise for his recent win is not beyond him. Ebraam is one you know has the ability but he doesn’t really like a scrap and looked to dog away his chances of late. He will be suited to the 6f here and should be staying on but sometimes he can give himself too much too do even in small fields and I’m not convinced a 5 runner race is what he wants, this hands the initiative to the in form MATSUNOSUKE and at 7/2 he rates a cracking 1-2 ew bet.
Good Luck
Chris
Good Morning;
Some interesting races at Lingfield today and I have bunged together a value Ew lucky 15.
Rapid City (12.15) was a welcome winner for us recently and impressive that day (hung across the course and still stamped his authority) he is expected to continue his return to form back in handicap company. A mark of 67 is considered more than winnable off and James Doyle gets on very well with this quirky type. He lacks to track a good pace and he should get that from the free going Zach’s Harmony who tends to pull hard in front before weakening. Plenty in here take a grip and that could mean stacking on the bend for Strike Force, Bavarica, Climate and Gizmondo (looks a good thing when stepped up to 12f at this level) when the pace trackers Rapid City and Formidable Guest quicken. The latter of those finds little off the bit but is in good form, however Rapid City is a well handicapped type who gives the impression he could rack up a sequence at a lowly level. 11/4 looks a solid price to me and I expect him to follow up his recent win. Resentful Angel is interesting on her handicap debut but I have my doubts over whether she will get 10f and a better opportunity may come over the extended mile at Wolverhampton. Gizmondo would be the one ew for me staying on too late and he should be a good bet for us shortly.
FANTASY GLADIATOR (Ew)(1.15) looks another strong bet for us today and having not been greatly drawn at Great Leigh’s last time the son of Ishiguru travelled really well before weakening late on. A bit keen to get the 6f he suggested a drop back to 5f would help and for me he has plenty going for him here. Hillside Lad the favourite has been running well over 6f showing speed and keeping on but whilst he should have enough pace to go well over 5f I feel he is the type that would be piped off late in the straight. Drawn 7 he also may have problems getting across and may have to race deep. Drawn in 1 Fantasy Gladiator should be able to track the pace without pulling back over 5f and I would fancy him to come with a strong late rattle. He is a horse that has caught the eye a few times on the Newmarket gallops and for me I don’t see how Green Onions will uphold the Great Leigh’s form back over this trip especially with Fantasy Gladiator better drawn. As I have said I’m no fan of the short priced favourite and would be very keen to lay him. Fantasy is the value however at 9/2 and rates a good ew for me today.
The return to Lingfield will suit Bonus (2.15) who has been running over too far at Kempton (doesn’t quite get 7f) and that would have to be my worry here today. I’m not sure where the pace angle comes form in this contest either which for me could lead to us getting some cracking value today. It’s been over a year since Naomh Geileis last run but over a mile at Ascot that day she failed to quicken late on chasing home a trio of smart types beaten only 4L. Winner Ibn Khaldun was a subsequent Group 1 winner, whilst 2nd placed Redolent collected twice last spring including in listed company. The 3rd landed 3 races in quick succession at the end of this season rounding off in the Churchill Stakes, whilst the 5th placed Jedediah was a close 8th in the Silver Bowl before running 6th in the Britannia. He ended the season with a fine success in a strong 0-105 Newmarket handicap. Sixth placed Meeriss has also been in good form this term placing on three occasions in smart company and holds an official mark of 97. Previously outpaced over 6f in the Sirenia Stakes at Kempton Naomh Geileis stayed on strongly not beaten far by smart listed performers Philario and Red Alert Day. Only on her first two starts (beat Group 1 winner Nahoodh on debut) and on her final start (4th to Ibn Khaldun) has she either made the running or tracked the pace and in a race where there are plenty of hold up performers who need a strong gallop she could end up getting it very easy up front. The annoying thing is only 7 runners which means only two places but in my opinion she’ll either win or come nowhere so I’m prepared to take that chance as at 12/1 value is on our side.
The race looks like this for me, Bonus (better over 6f, needs strong pace to come off), Aeroplane (Not convinced he gets 7f, 6.5f would be ideal. Another who likes to come off a strong pace), Gallantry (wants this trip or 1m but really needs a quick pace and doesn’t look that well handicapped, plus 1lb out handicap), Nezami (doesn’t find a lot for pressure, looks to need a mile now), Alpes Maritimes (could be well handicapped but no 7f sprinter and wants at least 10f and 2lb out handicap) and finally Electric Warrior (normally dropped in, has been doing well in claimers but 4lb out handicap). This for me means that there is every chance the Johnson horse can get it easy up front and most of his horses don’t want for fitness after a break. If allowed an uncontested lead I have no doubts she is well handicapped enough to collect, and seeing she stays a mile she could end up outstaying her rivals.
When you look back on that Ascot run, the 1st 6 home have the following official ratings now, 117, 110, 109, 97, 102 and 97. This suggests that whilst getting 3lb on that occasion she is definitely well in if she can prove she has progressed from 2 to 3. At 12/1 with her yard in great form I’m willing to take that chance.
The opposite occurs in the 2.45 where there is an abundance of early pace which will surely lead to the winner coming from off the pace. Both Turn On The Style and Maltese Falcon like to bowl along at a strong pace and with Epic Odyssey looking a tad outclassed and another who likes to go forward it could pay to look at both Ebraam and Matsunosuke who love to come off strong paces. The latter collected nicely last week at Great Leighs and gave the impression he could still be ahead of the handicapper. He is an improving type who on his last start at this course chased home the smart sprinter Conquest. In great form at present he wasn’t far behind Turn On The Style on a track that wouldn’t have suited 3 runs ago and back around him track I fancy him to prove his 2lb rise for his recent win is not beyond him. Ebraam is one you know has the ability but he doesn’t really like a scrap and looked to dog away his chances of late. He will be suited to the 6f here and should be staying on but sometimes he can give himself too much too do even in small fields and I’m not convinced a 5 runner race is what he wants, this hands the initiative to the in form MATSUNOSUKE and at 7/2 he rates a cracking 1-2 ew bet.
Good Luck
Chris