Swinley Handicap Chase

[Ian_Davies]

15 entries, including Hasthing, a chaser who fascinates me because he tends to run in snatches and I think he has been winning with more in hand than might first appear.

Ante-post betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-r...al-hunt/betfair-swinley-handicap-chase/winner

 

[barjon]

I haven’t got one to bet on yet, but I have one to watch. Imagine went to Harry Derham from Gordon Elliott (where he had created a taking impression in his first two chasing starts, including winning a Grade 2 Novice Chase in November, before a below-par effort back at Grade 3) early in 2024 with a lot of money involved.

He was trained for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November where he was third favourite, but never featured and was pulled up. Derham blamed the ground , but I’m not so sure. Upped to 3m1f in the Grade 3 Peter Marsh next time at Haydock in January he ran much better but weakened and appeared not to stay. Mind you, this was a time when most of Derham’s horses were weakening in the same way, maybe a bit short of work after his gallop got washed away.

He’s at 3m again in this one and Derham’s horses are coming good again, so we’ll find out if he does stay the distance. If he does, he has the easier ground so it should be a true test.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I haven’t got one to bet on yet, but I have one to watch. Imagine went to Harry Derham from Gordon Elliott (where he had created a taking im
pression in his first two chasing starts, including winning a Grade 2 Novice Chase in November, before a below-par effort back at Grade 3) early in 2024 with a lot of money involved.

I see Imagine is bottom-rated on adjusted RPRs as they appear today; that would be a worry for me.

One intriguing aspect is that Wiseguy tops their ratings. That in itself isn't the intriguing thing, though. When it won last time it beat a longshot of mine in Imperil (which I'd put on that thread at 40/1). The front two were clear and the third was miles clear of the fourth. I don't trust Topspeed ratings but sometimes a big rating will make me go and check my own time ratings for a race though I confess I haven't done so yet.

The reason is probably because none of the first three has reappeared since that race 77 days ago. That is quite unusual. The big Topspeed figure combined with the long absence makes me wonder if they had very hard races that day.

This is a £100k race so they're not exactly dipping their hooves in the waters of a gentle comeback campaign with Wiseguy (and who knows when the other two might reappear) so I'm wondering if they're protecting what they think remain 'workable' handicap marks.

I look forward to studying this race now!