M
Marble
Guest
1. ASTROLOGY A.P.O' BRIEN - RYAN MOORE
Courtesy of Colin Phillips
A January foal, bay colt by Galileo and the first foal of Ask For The Moon, winner of the Group 1 St. Alary in 2004.
There must be a slight doubt about Astronomy getting the 12f. but he was running on at the end of the Dee Stakes over 10.5 at Chester but against three rather moderate opponents.
His bare form so far doesn't look good enough for a Derby win but must have a chance of claiming a place.
The present odds of 8/1 are not tempting enough to drag me in.
2. BONFIRE A M BALDING -J FORTUNE
Courtesy of Euronymous
I'm taking a different tack with Bonfire who is a nice horse with a progressive profile but an unlikely winner. Dante winners always seem to be overbet and overrated for the Derby - for every Reference Point or Motivator or Authorized you have tens of Alnasr Alwasheek's, Dilshaan's, Black Bear Island's and Carlton House's.
I think Bonfire might stay on Saturday but won't be good enough to handle the favourite. His sire, Monduro, was best over 10f but probably stayed 12f and he's out of a Night Shift mare who is an influence primarily for speed. However Night Shift's best two racehorses - Azamour and In the Groove - were top class 10f horses who managed to eek out wins in the King George and Coronation Cup respectively. I think Bonfire might turn out close to being as good as them but I think his best trip will be 10f. There was a lot to like about his win at York against a colt in Ektihaam who had had a run already this season and who's pedigree screams 10f even more than Balding's creature does. Indeed I think he has a leading chance at Chantilly if he takes part. Bonfire won with plenty in hand that day but I think Camelot is a solid favourite for the race and Highclere have a more realistic Classic hope in Vow the day before.
3. CAMELOT - A.P.O'BRIEN J.P.O'BRIEN
Courtesy of Steve M
The Aidan O’Brien-trained Camelot just can’t please some folk. He was doubted before the 2,000 Guineas (with some going as far as saying the son of Montjeu couldn’t win the spring classic) and was also damned with faint praise after winning the Guineas as the best of a mediocre bunch. The fact is he won the race in fine style, almost counter to his natural stamina attributes, coming from off the pace and using his turn of foot to outperform his rivals, from a high class natural miler in French Fifteen. I commented in my 2,000 Guineas preview that despite showing eight stamina points in his Dosage profile he also has sharper dam side influences and was just the Montjeu progeny type likely do very well in the Guineas. However, this does not compromise his chances at 12 furlongs. Indeed, Camelot is a broad spectrum horse showing a good spread of points in his profile and the type that that should manage to win over a range of distances. Everything about him suggests that he will make up into a fine middle-distance individual and he will take a world of beating here.
4. CAVALEIRO - M.P TREGONING HAYLEY TURNEY
Courtesy of New Approach
Cavaleiro - Sir Percy ex Khibraat
Although seen as a rank outsider for Saturday’s classic there is a lot to like about Cavaleiro. By 2006 Derby winner Sir Percy and with Roberto as his dam’s dam sire his breeding suggests that 12f is an ideal trip for him and his performance in the Lingfield Derby Trial bears this out. Although slightly one paced and ultimately beaten nearly 7 lengths by winner Main Sequence he was staying on well at the end to finish perhaps surprisingly in 3rd place. Trainer Marcus Tregoning was happy with his seasonal reappearance and the fact that he stated that he had needed the run adds further points in his favour.
Cavaleiro is one of the highest rated progeny of Sir Percy who has already got off to a reasonable start at stud and he seems a likeable, straightforward type who has made solid progression from run to run. Never out of the places in all 6 of his starts, Cavaleiro has run on good to soft, good to firm and polytrack and with his arguably best performance to date being his win over the much fancied Harvard N Yale in the Haynes, Hanson and Clark Conditions Stakes at Newbury being on good to firm, Saturday’s likely ground conditions seem sure to suit. He has run on both right and left handed tracks and should have no problems handling the camber at Epsom.
Cavaleiro had a good race course gallop at Lingfield last Saturday where Marcus Tregoning said he had done the best bit of work he’d done all year. He is a nice colt who is a strong traveller and will definitely stay, his trainer is in great form at present and he will be ably partnered by the excellent Hayley Turner at Epsom who will be having her first Derby runner.
It is perhaps hoping for too much for Cavaleiro to follow in his father’s footsteps this Saturday and give us our first female Derby winning jockey in Hayley but I feel that he will finish a good deal closer to the principals than his odds would suggest and he’s definitely worth an each way shout.
5. MAIN SEQUENCE - DR LANIGAN - T E DURCAN
Courtesy of Bar The Bull
The Lingfield Derby Trial is down on its luck. Back in the 1980’s and 1990’s, it was a major pointer not just to the Derby, but also to the St. Leger. A slew of top colts followed victory in the Surrey trial venue with a win either in nearby Epsom or faraway Doncaster. In fact, the roll call of Lingfield Derby Trial winners reads like a who’s who of gritty middle distance colts from the era.
Teenoso, Slip Anchor, Kahyasi, Bob’s Return, Silver Patriarch, High-Rise. However, who would have guessed back in 1998, that we would have to wait 14 years for the next colt to follow up Lingfield Derby trial success with Derby success at Epsom? Thankfully, the wait is over. Main Sequence is about to ensure it.
The Niarchos family is no stranger to Classic success. Miesque, Divine Proportions, Six Perfections, Sulamani, Dream World and Spinning Well have all proven their superiority over their 3yo contemporaries, with most of them, as well as Bago, going on to further success in championship events. Here they have a colt that promises to smash the achievements of the aforementioned horses into smithereens. The horse is Main Sequence.
In contrast to the illustrious owners and the previously illustrious status of the Lingfield Derby Trial, the Niarchos Family have entrusted the handling of Main Sequence to the competent (but relatively inexperienced Lambourn handler David Lanigan. After apprenticeships with Vincent O’Brien, John Oxx and Edward O’Grady, Lanigan suckled from Henry Cecil’s ample teat of knowledge for years, before striking out on his own five years ago. Meeznah has been the standard bearer of the stable previously, but events on the All-Weather surface of Lingfield on May 12th have given very real hope to the legion of David Lanigan fans that he could be the 33rd youngest trainer to train a Derby winner.
Aldebaran is a red giant star located about 65 light years away in the zodiac constellation of Taurus. Aldebaran is also a stallion standing at JBBA Shizunai Stallion Station, having previously been champion US sprinter in 2003. Having previously raced for Henry Cecil, the Niarchos family sold a stake in the horse to race in the US for Bobby Frankel, where Aldebaran delivered on the promise he had shown for Sir Henry. Niarchos homebred Ikat was sent to Aldebaran four years ago, just before the latter set sail for Japan. Ikat (by Pivotal) was a 7f winner as a 2yo, but was placed later that autumn in a Group 3 race over a mile at Chantilly. She never won after her maiden success.
So, a horse out of a Pivotal 7f winning filly by the speedy Aldebaran. No chance of staying? Think again. Main Sequence’s fourth dam Northern Trick finished second in the 1984 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, his third dam Lingerie bred the 2007 Oaks winner Light Shift, and his second dam Burning Sunset was Group Two-placed in the 2001 Prix d'Harcourt over 1m2f. And Main Sequence has already won over 12f. Almost all of Aldebaran’s stock so far have improved with age. If Main Sequence can follow this progression, the Derby is his for the taking.
Admittedly there are slight stamina doubts, given his parentage. And foolish people may say that he may stay 12f, but he has never met horses of the calibre of the Derby field he is due to face on Saturday. However, the Derby field has never met a horse of the calibre of Main Sequence. Just like Dubai Milennium, he started his racing career with a win in a 1m Yarmouth maiden. Three subsequent winnes were left flailing in his wake. Next stop was a Newmarket nursery, with a smooth 3L win over rivals from top stables including subsequent multiple winners Fennell Bay, Come on Blue Chip and Winners Wish.
A mild winter on his back, and another trip back to HQ, for a 3yo handicap at the Craven meeting. Although the form doesn't look too hot in that race, it was the manner of victory that impressed, with Ted Durcan getting Main Sequence bedded down in the pack, and producing him late to show off his impressive turn of foot. Onwards and upwards to Lingfield, for his trial for Epsom. Durcan produced Main Sequence late again, and it looked too late. However, his trusty steed mowed his rivals down like a crazed and beligerent psychopath on a killing spree. Don't be among this colt's victims on Saturday. Beg, borrow or steal enough money to enable you to be able to afford to wave your miserable life goodbye and set sail for a life on Copacabana beach, all the while toasting Main Sequence's famous Derby triumph.
6. MICKDAAM - R A FAHEY - P HANAGAN
Courtesy of Marble
Mickdaam has the athletic characteristics of Martin Keown in this 2012 Derby field, has the versatility to make the key moves that will be crucial on Saturday, and in contrast to other less proven horses that look prettier based on previous races and trials, has the race experience and prowess to provide a good show and make the first three here. In a field with one Thierry Henry paced animal in the favourite Camelot, and a batch of horses that are so tender form wise, they'll probably fall over more times in the parade ring than Christiano Ronaldo in the Champions League final, if you want a horse that is crying out for a group 1 race over twelve furlongs, has improved stones as a three year old, prefers a left handed track and comes here on the back of a career best, choose Mickdaam.
The way last year’s winner Pour Moi won his derby when meeting trouble in running, may suggest you want a horse with an abundance of speed and class like Camelot, or a race ready and durable colt on an upward curve in Mickdaam to get through the acid test which is the Epsom Derby, as Pour Moi did last year. He's race ready in that he's had more career starts than any other starter, and won the second highest amount of prize money in the field so far in his career, and he's durable because he won The Chester Vase last time on soft but is thought by his trainer to be just as good on better ground, Richard Fahey said: "They will be very different ground conditions at Epsom on Saturday to those that he encountered at a rain-sodden Chester but I think he'll love it. He's such a good-moving horse I think it will suit him well." At 33/1 Mickdaam is very much overpriced. Interestingly he is Richard Fahey's first ever runner in the race.
7. MINIMISE RISK ANDREW BALDING - JAMIE SPENCER
Courtesy of Slim Chance
Note the colours on your racecard Satuday morning next to this 410,000 purchase who is rated 96 as this won't be the last time Dr Jim Hay has an Epson classic runner. The only shred of hope I can provide to the son of Galileo who finished last of the five runners in the Chester Vase is that he happens to have won the same Newbury maiden as 2006 Epson Derby 4th Hala Bek.
For Jamie Spencer this will be the second year in a row that he rides a 100/1 rag in the Derby having partenered David Simcock's Marhaba Malyaan to finish a respectable last twelve months ago. One wonders will Spencer allow his mind to wander for a second during the preliminaries to ponder how it might have been him getting the leg up on hot favourite Camelot. His best finish in the Epson Derby came on his first ride in the classic when the then twenty one year old finished 3rd aboard Moon Ballad for Godolphin. The irony being he was overlooked that year with rumours suggesting at the time that he was in line for which of Hawk Wing and High Chapparal that Mick Kinane rejected. Having been intrusted with riding Hawk Wing in that years 2000 Guineas one could not help thinking at the time that this was a hugely talented jockey who would ride many a classic winner.
After his split from O'Brien he rode for David Wachman at Epson in 2005 finishing fourth but was without a ride in 2006 and 2007. The highlight since his maiden ride in the race was a Spencer special in 2009 when having Crowded House stone last for most of the way to be produced on the outside to finish a distant fifth. On Saturday he has his first ride in Epson for a rising force in the bloodstock world. Dr Jim Hay has the potential to establish himself among the ownership elite but Saturday will not be his day but a sign of the future. Therefore it must also be a pointer to future for Jamie Spencer as a Group One jockey. After all Spencer is very much Hay's man after a stellar 2011 yielding Group 1 wins on both sides of the Atlantic. He is a more mature and polished jockey than he was after his split with O'Brien in 2004. Aiden and Jamie's words after Fame and Glory won the Ascot Gold Cup are worth reading again. They show wounds are healing and Spencer has closed that chapter on his career.
I didn’t blame him for running away from me,” said the trainer. “We are getting along a lot better now,” said the jockey.
If Moon Ballad's 3rd in Epson was the arrival of Spencer on the Derby scene than perhaps Minimise Risk's participation on Saturday is the start of his revival.
8. RUGGED CROSS H CANDY - DANE O'NEILL
Courtesy of Edgt
RUGGED CROSS
"On A Hill far away stood an Old Rugged Cross
The emblem of suffering and shame"
If the faraway hill is Tattenham Hill then this horse wont be standing but fighting his corner like his ancestors and relatives. Whether he is left standing is another matter.
Rugged Cross is by Cape Cross out of one of the most rugged dam lines in the stud book, horses mostly trained by Clive Brittain. Luso, Warsaan, Needle Gun and Cloud Castle are all out of grandam Lucayan Princess. Had the said Clive realised Aldebran was just 65 light years away they may well have raced there as well as everywhere else!
Cape Cross has enjoyed Epsom success with Sea The Stars and Ouija Board but is still not exactly fashionable with the cognesenti. In this regard he reminds me a little of Great Nephew who sired Grundy, Shergar and Mrs Penny but is largely forgotten now. A second Derby winner might do the trick.
His debut last July was promising, finishing 5th behind Jungle Beatand Farhaan. York in August provided him with a victory in The Convivial maiden leaving one time Epsom fancies Athens and Thomas Chippindale in his wake.
His first run this year was a promising third behind Thought Worthy. On his first encounter with good to firm going he acquitted himself well . His finish ahead of Farhaan implies improvement from 2 to 3.
Trainer Henry Candy is not the type to think his geese are swans. Having had a Derby runner up in Master Willie 1980 he must consider his charge good enough to run. That High Line appears in the 3rd generation must enthuse the trainer also.
This horse is on an upward curve and if his relatives are any guide should be racing for a long time. There may well be a Derby in this horse even if it is more likely to be in Germany, Winter or Dingle under a pseudonym!
40 to1 is a fair representation of his price Saturday but many are old enough to remember Snow Knight in 74.
9. THOUGHT WORTHY J GOSDEN - W BUICK
Courtesy of Aragorn
So the case for Thought Worthy.......
I've been thinking that people have misjudged his performance at sandown against Imperial monarch. Anyone with a stopwatch might want to have a look at that card and his performance in particular
In beating Rougemont 9 lengths that day and only running 1 3/4 lengths behind Imperial Monarch, Thought Worthy has put in a noteworthy run indeed. I backed him at 200's after that.
His maiden form has worked out very well with the next three in the race winning next time out; he was given a very educational ride that day as well and won going away.
His latest piece of form doesn't look overly strong on the face of it but there are a couple of mitigating factors. Firstly he ran very green looking anywhere but straight ahead and this was further compounded by the dip, which made him even more wayward. I'm also not sure the ground was ideal either.
Now the ground is likely to be as quick come Saturday but given the way he battled back at Newmarket and the fact he is a full brother to Lucarno (finished fourth in the race) should mean that the extra distance will bring about improvement, negating some of the ground factor. Gosden and Buick are flying as well, which always helps.
Now I'm not suggesting people should rush out and back him but there are enough reasons to think this colt could run a big race and get in the frame.
Courtesy of Colin Phillips
A January foal, bay colt by Galileo and the first foal of Ask For The Moon, winner of the Group 1 St. Alary in 2004.
There must be a slight doubt about Astronomy getting the 12f. but he was running on at the end of the Dee Stakes over 10.5 at Chester but against three rather moderate opponents.
His bare form so far doesn't look good enough for a Derby win but must have a chance of claiming a place.
The present odds of 8/1 are not tempting enough to drag me in.
2. BONFIRE A M BALDING -J FORTUNE
Courtesy of Euronymous
I'm taking a different tack with Bonfire who is a nice horse with a progressive profile but an unlikely winner. Dante winners always seem to be overbet and overrated for the Derby - for every Reference Point or Motivator or Authorized you have tens of Alnasr Alwasheek's, Dilshaan's, Black Bear Island's and Carlton House's.
I think Bonfire might stay on Saturday but won't be good enough to handle the favourite. His sire, Monduro, was best over 10f but probably stayed 12f and he's out of a Night Shift mare who is an influence primarily for speed. However Night Shift's best two racehorses - Azamour and In the Groove - were top class 10f horses who managed to eek out wins in the King George and Coronation Cup respectively. I think Bonfire might turn out close to being as good as them but I think his best trip will be 10f. There was a lot to like about his win at York against a colt in Ektihaam who had had a run already this season and who's pedigree screams 10f even more than Balding's creature does. Indeed I think he has a leading chance at Chantilly if he takes part. Bonfire won with plenty in hand that day but I think Camelot is a solid favourite for the race and Highclere have a more realistic Classic hope in Vow the day before.
3. CAMELOT - A.P.O'BRIEN J.P.O'BRIEN
Courtesy of Steve M
The Aidan O’Brien-trained Camelot just can’t please some folk. He was doubted before the 2,000 Guineas (with some going as far as saying the son of Montjeu couldn’t win the spring classic) and was also damned with faint praise after winning the Guineas as the best of a mediocre bunch. The fact is he won the race in fine style, almost counter to his natural stamina attributes, coming from off the pace and using his turn of foot to outperform his rivals, from a high class natural miler in French Fifteen. I commented in my 2,000 Guineas preview that despite showing eight stamina points in his Dosage profile he also has sharper dam side influences and was just the Montjeu progeny type likely do very well in the Guineas. However, this does not compromise his chances at 12 furlongs. Indeed, Camelot is a broad spectrum horse showing a good spread of points in his profile and the type that that should manage to win over a range of distances. Everything about him suggests that he will make up into a fine middle-distance individual and he will take a world of beating here.
4. CAVALEIRO - M.P TREGONING HAYLEY TURNEY
Courtesy of New Approach
Cavaleiro - Sir Percy ex Khibraat
Although seen as a rank outsider for Saturday’s classic there is a lot to like about Cavaleiro. By 2006 Derby winner Sir Percy and with Roberto as his dam’s dam sire his breeding suggests that 12f is an ideal trip for him and his performance in the Lingfield Derby Trial bears this out. Although slightly one paced and ultimately beaten nearly 7 lengths by winner Main Sequence he was staying on well at the end to finish perhaps surprisingly in 3rd place. Trainer Marcus Tregoning was happy with his seasonal reappearance and the fact that he stated that he had needed the run adds further points in his favour.
Cavaleiro is one of the highest rated progeny of Sir Percy who has already got off to a reasonable start at stud and he seems a likeable, straightforward type who has made solid progression from run to run. Never out of the places in all 6 of his starts, Cavaleiro has run on good to soft, good to firm and polytrack and with his arguably best performance to date being his win over the much fancied Harvard N Yale in the Haynes, Hanson and Clark Conditions Stakes at Newbury being on good to firm, Saturday’s likely ground conditions seem sure to suit. He has run on both right and left handed tracks and should have no problems handling the camber at Epsom.
Cavaleiro had a good race course gallop at Lingfield last Saturday where Marcus Tregoning said he had done the best bit of work he’d done all year. He is a nice colt who is a strong traveller and will definitely stay, his trainer is in great form at present and he will be ably partnered by the excellent Hayley Turner at Epsom who will be having her first Derby runner.
It is perhaps hoping for too much for Cavaleiro to follow in his father’s footsteps this Saturday and give us our first female Derby winning jockey in Hayley but I feel that he will finish a good deal closer to the principals than his odds would suggest and he’s definitely worth an each way shout.
5. MAIN SEQUENCE - DR LANIGAN - T E DURCAN
Courtesy of Bar The Bull
The Lingfield Derby Trial is down on its luck. Back in the 1980’s and 1990’s, it was a major pointer not just to the Derby, but also to the St. Leger. A slew of top colts followed victory in the Surrey trial venue with a win either in nearby Epsom or faraway Doncaster. In fact, the roll call of Lingfield Derby Trial winners reads like a who’s who of gritty middle distance colts from the era.
Teenoso, Slip Anchor, Kahyasi, Bob’s Return, Silver Patriarch, High-Rise. However, who would have guessed back in 1998, that we would have to wait 14 years for the next colt to follow up Lingfield Derby trial success with Derby success at Epsom? Thankfully, the wait is over. Main Sequence is about to ensure it.
The Niarchos family is no stranger to Classic success. Miesque, Divine Proportions, Six Perfections, Sulamani, Dream World and Spinning Well have all proven their superiority over their 3yo contemporaries, with most of them, as well as Bago, going on to further success in championship events. Here they have a colt that promises to smash the achievements of the aforementioned horses into smithereens. The horse is Main Sequence.
In contrast to the illustrious owners and the previously illustrious status of the Lingfield Derby Trial, the Niarchos Family have entrusted the handling of Main Sequence to the competent (but relatively inexperienced Lambourn handler David Lanigan. After apprenticeships with Vincent O’Brien, John Oxx and Edward O’Grady, Lanigan suckled from Henry Cecil’s ample teat of knowledge for years, before striking out on his own five years ago. Meeznah has been the standard bearer of the stable previously, but events on the All-Weather surface of Lingfield on May 12th have given very real hope to the legion of David Lanigan fans that he could be the 33rd youngest trainer to train a Derby winner.
Aldebaran is a red giant star located about 65 light years away in the zodiac constellation of Taurus. Aldebaran is also a stallion standing at JBBA Shizunai Stallion Station, having previously been champion US sprinter in 2003. Having previously raced for Henry Cecil, the Niarchos family sold a stake in the horse to race in the US for Bobby Frankel, where Aldebaran delivered on the promise he had shown for Sir Henry. Niarchos homebred Ikat was sent to Aldebaran four years ago, just before the latter set sail for Japan. Ikat (by Pivotal) was a 7f winner as a 2yo, but was placed later that autumn in a Group 3 race over a mile at Chantilly. She never won after her maiden success.
So, a horse out of a Pivotal 7f winning filly by the speedy Aldebaran. No chance of staying? Think again. Main Sequence’s fourth dam Northern Trick finished second in the 1984 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, his third dam Lingerie bred the 2007 Oaks winner Light Shift, and his second dam Burning Sunset was Group Two-placed in the 2001 Prix d'Harcourt over 1m2f. And Main Sequence has already won over 12f. Almost all of Aldebaran’s stock so far have improved with age. If Main Sequence can follow this progression, the Derby is his for the taking.
Admittedly there are slight stamina doubts, given his parentage. And foolish people may say that he may stay 12f, but he has never met horses of the calibre of the Derby field he is due to face on Saturday. However, the Derby field has never met a horse of the calibre of Main Sequence. Just like Dubai Milennium, he started his racing career with a win in a 1m Yarmouth maiden. Three subsequent winnes were left flailing in his wake. Next stop was a Newmarket nursery, with a smooth 3L win over rivals from top stables including subsequent multiple winners Fennell Bay, Come on Blue Chip and Winners Wish.
A mild winter on his back, and another trip back to HQ, for a 3yo handicap at the Craven meeting. Although the form doesn't look too hot in that race, it was the manner of victory that impressed, with Ted Durcan getting Main Sequence bedded down in the pack, and producing him late to show off his impressive turn of foot. Onwards and upwards to Lingfield, for his trial for Epsom. Durcan produced Main Sequence late again, and it looked too late. However, his trusty steed mowed his rivals down like a crazed and beligerent psychopath on a killing spree. Don't be among this colt's victims on Saturday. Beg, borrow or steal enough money to enable you to be able to afford to wave your miserable life goodbye and set sail for a life on Copacabana beach, all the while toasting Main Sequence's famous Derby triumph.
6. MICKDAAM - R A FAHEY - P HANAGAN
Courtesy of Marble
Mickdaam has the athletic characteristics of Martin Keown in this 2012 Derby field, has the versatility to make the key moves that will be crucial on Saturday, and in contrast to other less proven horses that look prettier based on previous races and trials, has the race experience and prowess to provide a good show and make the first three here. In a field with one Thierry Henry paced animal in the favourite Camelot, and a batch of horses that are so tender form wise, they'll probably fall over more times in the parade ring than Christiano Ronaldo in the Champions League final, if you want a horse that is crying out for a group 1 race over twelve furlongs, has improved stones as a three year old, prefers a left handed track and comes here on the back of a career best, choose Mickdaam.
The way last year’s winner Pour Moi won his derby when meeting trouble in running, may suggest you want a horse with an abundance of speed and class like Camelot, or a race ready and durable colt on an upward curve in Mickdaam to get through the acid test which is the Epsom Derby, as Pour Moi did last year. He's race ready in that he's had more career starts than any other starter, and won the second highest amount of prize money in the field so far in his career, and he's durable because he won The Chester Vase last time on soft but is thought by his trainer to be just as good on better ground, Richard Fahey said: "They will be very different ground conditions at Epsom on Saturday to those that he encountered at a rain-sodden Chester but I think he'll love it. He's such a good-moving horse I think it will suit him well." At 33/1 Mickdaam is very much overpriced. Interestingly he is Richard Fahey's first ever runner in the race.
7. MINIMISE RISK ANDREW BALDING - JAMIE SPENCER
Courtesy of Slim Chance
Note the colours on your racecard Satuday morning next to this 410,000 purchase who is rated 96 as this won't be the last time Dr Jim Hay has an Epson classic runner. The only shred of hope I can provide to the son of Galileo who finished last of the five runners in the Chester Vase is that he happens to have won the same Newbury maiden as 2006 Epson Derby 4th Hala Bek.
For Jamie Spencer this will be the second year in a row that he rides a 100/1 rag in the Derby having partenered David Simcock's Marhaba Malyaan to finish a respectable last twelve months ago. One wonders will Spencer allow his mind to wander for a second during the preliminaries to ponder how it might have been him getting the leg up on hot favourite Camelot. His best finish in the Epson Derby came on his first ride in the classic when the then twenty one year old finished 3rd aboard Moon Ballad for Godolphin. The irony being he was overlooked that year with rumours suggesting at the time that he was in line for which of Hawk Wing and High Chapparal that Mick Kinane rejected. Having been intrusted with riding Hawk Wing in that years 2000 Guineas one could not help thinking at the time that this was a hugely talented jockey who would ride many a classic winner.
After his split from O'Brien he rode for David Wachman at Epson in 2005 finishing fourth but was without a ride in 2006 and 2007. The highlight since his maiden ride in the race was a Spencer special in 2009 when having Crowded House stone last for most of the way to be produced on the outside to finish a distant fifth. On Saturday he has his first ride in Epson for a rising force in the bloodstock world. Dr Jim Hay has the potential to establish himself among the ownership elite but Saturday will not be his day but a sign of the future. Therefore it must also be a pointer to future for Jamie Spencer as a Group One jockey. After all Spencer is very much Hay's man after a stellar 2011 yielding Group 1 wins on both sides of the Atlantic. He is a more mature and polished jockey than he was after his split with O'Brien in 2004. Aiden and Jamie's words after Fame and Glory won the Ascot Gold Cup are worth reading again. They show wounds are healing and Spencer has closed that chapter on his career.
I didn’t blame him for running away from me,” said the trainer. “We are getting along a lot better now,” said the jockey.
If Moon Ballad's 3rd in Epson was the arrival of Spencer on the Derby scene than perhaps Minimise Risk's participation on Saturday is the start of his revival.
8. RUGGED CROSS H CANDY - DANE O'NEILL
Courtesy of Edgt
RUGGED CROSS
"On A Hill far away stood an Old Rugged Cross
The emblem of suffering and shame"
If the faraway hill is Tattenham Hill then this horse wont be standing but fighting his corner like his ancestors and relatives. Whether he is left standing is another matter.
Rugged Cross is by Cape Cross out of one of the most rugged dam lines in the stud book, horses mostly trained by Clive Brittain. Luso, Warsaan, Needle Gun and Cloud Castle are all out of grandam Lucayan Princess. Had the said Clive realised Aldebran was just 65 light years away they may well have raced there as well as everywhere else!
Cape Cross has enjoyed Epsom success with Sea The Stars and Ouija Board but is still not exactly fashionable with the cognesenti. In this regard he reminds me a little of Great Nephew who sired Grundy, Shergar and Mrs Penny but is largely forgotten now. A second Derby winner might do the trick.
His debut last July was promising, finishing 5th behind Jungle Beatand Farhaan. York in August provided him with a victory in The Convivial maiden leaving one time Epsom fancies Athens and Thomas Chippindale in his wake.
His first run this year was a promising third behind Thought Worthy. On his first encounter with good to firm going he acquitted himself well . His finish ahead of Farhaan implies improvement from 2 to 3.
Trainer Henry Candy is not the type to think his geese are swans. Having had a Derby runner up in Master Willie 1980 he must consider his charge good enough to run. That High Line appears in the 3rd generation must enthuse the trainer also.
This horse is on an upward curve and if his relatives are any guide should be racing for a long time. There may well be a Derby in this horse even if it is more likely to be in Germany, Winter or Dingle under a pseudonym!
40 to1 is a fair representation of his price Saturday but many are old enough to remember Snow Knight in 74.
9. THOUGHT WORTHY J GOSDEN - W BUICK
Courtesy of Aragorn
So the case for Thought Worthy.......
I've been thinking that people have misjudged his performance at sandown against Imperial monarch. Anyone with a stopwatch might want to have a look at that card and his performance in particular
In beating Rougemont 9 lengths that day and only running 1 3/4 lengths behind Imperial Monarch, Thought Worthy has put in a noteworthy run indeed. I backed him at 200's after that.
His maiden form has worked out very well with the next three in the race winning next time out; he was given a very educational ride that day as well and won going away.
His latest piece of form doesn't look overly strong on the face of it but there are a couple of mitigating factors. Firstly he ran very green looking anywhere but straight ahead and this was further compounded by the dip, which made him even more wayward. I'm also not sure the ground was ideal either.
Now the ground is likely to be as quick come Saturday but given the way he battled back at Newmarket and the fact he is a full brother to Lucarno (finished fourth in the race) should mean that the extra distance will bring about improvement, negating some of the ground factor. Gosden and Buick are flying as well, which always helps.
Now I'm not suggesting people should rush out and back him but there are enough reasons to think this colt could run a big race and get in the frame.
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