The art of finding a winning bet is to understand how the race is going to shape up, with a pinch of luck and a dash of bravery it's possible to land a solid bet.
Today I will show you the art of analyzing the potential speed in a race. The idea is that, leaders/chasers dropping down in distance are more often going to go off at a stronger pace in comparison to leaders/chasers stepping up in distance who result in slow races.
Let me take you through the 3:10 at Lingfield.
We have leaders/chasers in Noble Deed & Kyllachy Rise stepping down from 7f to 6f today. These two horses will go off a a strong pace, they are likely to take each other on.
Ideally we'd want something chasing in behind who is used to going quick fractions, i.e a 5f horse. That would be Perfect Pasture who is currently 11/4.
I would assume that Perfect Pasture has a history of leading early around the 4f pole in races over 5f, I think this horse will carry the strong pace to the final furlong pole when he'll be weakening dramatically.
There's a lot of pace pressure in the race, it will require a lot of stamina and I can see the usual 5-6f horses being found out here and we need something that gets a medium/fast run 7f from a rear position.
This should really set the race up for Naagheba, who has recently won a claimer in a slow to medium run affair which has worked out. The claiming route is a good boost for a horses confidence, it's over looked by punters especially when a good horse runs in them, they are considered dead meat.
Ben Curtis is a talented Irish Jockey, he needs patience here, entering the last furlong he should still be sitting last if he wants any chance of a victory here and it will be a test of his patience.
£100 EW @ 14/1 (BET365 1/4 PLACE)