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But why bother using class pars when you can just use the actual rating of the horse who actually produced the time?

Fencing Master would have barely sneaked into second in the 3yo handicap today. Same age, same weight, and same time (within 0.02s) of the actual second, Start The Party. If Start The Party had run that time in the Guineas, he would have been seen to blatantly hold down the form. You would have to justify him improving by nearly a full stone just to get Canford Cliffs up to his own OR of 118. To put Canford Cliffs up to the 126-level I mentioned earlier, you'd need him to have improved by a stone and a half, whilst also justifying Free Judgement and Viscount Nelson suddenly improving by ~10lbs simultaneously.

As it is, the result of the handicap suggests that Start The Party improved by around 4lb. Even a complete optimist couldn't have him improving by anything more than 10lb. And remember, Start The Party didn't even win his handicap!

<blockquote data-quote="Harbinger" data-source="post: 2246745" data-attributes="member: 65089">But why bother using class pars when you can just use the actual rating of the horse who actually produced the time?Fencing Master would have barely sneaked into second in the 3yo handicap today. Same age, same weight, and same time (within 0.02s) of the actual second, Start The Party. If Start The Party had run that time in the Guineas, he would have been seen to blatantly hold down the form. You would have to justify him improving by nearly a full stone just to get Canford Cliffs up to his own OR of 118. To put Canford Cliffs up to the 126-level I mentioned earlier, you&#039;d need him to have improved by a stone and a half, whilst also justifying Free Judgement and Viscount Nelson suddenly improving by ~10lbs simultaneously.As it is, the result of the handicap suggests that Start The Party improved by around 4lb. Even a complete optimist couldn&#039;t have him improving by anything more than 10lb. And remember, Start The Party didn&#039;t even win his handicap!</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Harbinger, post: 2246745, member: 65089"] But why bother using class pars when you can just use the actual rating of the horse who actually produced the time? Fencing Master would have barely sneaked into second in the 3yo handicap today. Same age, same weight, and same time (within 0.02s) of the actual second, Start The Party. If Start The Party had run that time in the Guineas, he would have been seen to blatantly hold down the form. You would have to justify him improving by nearly a full stone just to get Canford Cliffs up to his own OR of 118. To put Canford Cliffs up to the 126-level I mentioned earlier, you'd need him to have improved by a stone and a half, whilst also justifying Free Judgement and Viscount Nelson suddenly improving by ~10lbs simultaneously. As it is, the result of the handicap suggests that Start The Party improved by around 4lb. Even a complete optimist couldn't have him improving by anything more than 10lb. And remember, Start The Party didn't even win his handicap! [/QUOTE]

Verification: 5 + 3 = ?