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Fencing Master would have barely sneaked into second in the 3yo handicap today. Same age, same weight, and same time (within 0.02s) of the actual second, Start The Party. If Start The Party had run that time in the Guineas, he would have been seen to blatantly hold down the form. You would have to justify him improving by nearly a full stone just to get Canford Cliffs up to his own OR of 118. To put Canford Cliffs up to the 126-level I mentioned earlier, you'd need him to have improved by a stone and a half, whilst also justifying Free Judgement and Viscount Nelson suddenly improving by ~10lbs simultaneously.

it doesn't work like that though does it?

If Start The Party had run in the guineas..the early pace in that race would have meant he could not have produced that time..he would have been asked for too much too early and burned out..whereas in the handicap his pace distribution is in line with the opposition at that level.

<blockquote data-quote="EC1" data-source="post: 2246748" data-attributes="member: 65360">Fencing Master would have barely sneaked into second in the 3yo handicap today. Same age, same weight, and same time (within 0.02s) of the actual second, Start The Party. If Start The Party had run that time in the Guineas, he would have been seen to blatantly hold down the form. You would have to justify him improving by nearly a full stone just to get Canford Cliffs up to his own OR of 118. To put Canford Cliffs up to the 126-level I mentioned earlier, you&#039;d need him to have improved by a stone and a half, whilst also justifying Free Judgement and Viscount Nelson suddenly improving by ~10lbs simultaneously.&nbsp;it doesn&#039;t work like that though does it?&nbsp;If Start The Party had run in the guineas..the early pace in that race would have meant he could not have produced that time..he would have been asked for too much too early and burned out..whereas in the handicap his pace distribution is in line with the opposition at that level.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="EC1, post: 2246748, member: 65360"] Fencing Master would have barely sneaked into second in the 3yo handicap today. Same age, same weight, and same time (within 0.02s) of the actual second, Start The Party. If Start The Party had run that time in the Guineas, he would have been seen to blatantly hold down the form. You would have to justify him improving by nearly a full stone just to get Canford Cliffs up to his own OR of 118. To put Canford Cliffs up to the 126-level I mentioned earlier, you'd need him to have improved by a stone and a half, whilst also justifying Free Judgement and Viscount Nelson suddenly improving by ~10lbs simultaneously. it doesn't work like that though does it? If Start The Party had run in the guineas..the early pace in that race would have meant he could not have produced that time..he would have been asked for too much too early and burned out..whereas in the handicap his pace distribution is in line with the opposition at that level. [/QUOTE]

Verification: 5 + 3 = ?