Gareth
I'll highlight something
that 3yo handicap on our guineas card goes back a few years..it did used to be a 0-90 race ..they may have swapped it round days wise a few times...but..a couple of years ago i worked out the average differences between that race and the guineas..over 10 years I think it was...it averaged that the 0-90 handicap was 2 seconds shy of the guineas..and most years in those averages the guineas was pretty truly run.
that 2 seconds difference is constant between ..0-90 handicaps and true run avergae G1's..I don't mean superstar G1's. I did the same with a few other courses where distances where comparible
this year that 0-90 is now a 0-100..but..as it was slowly run it was basically timewise a 0-90..and thats why Makfi's time is shy of the average winner
but no matter how you work your speed figures out there will be 2 seconds between these two class of race.
it could be argued that you shouldn't just put them alongside each other because its not linear..different pace issues within each race.
so actually treating that 2 seconds as if it was an extension of another race can't be done..ie your example of slotting in one horse from one race to another.
I believe Timeform get round this by allowing 20lb per second..so your 0-90 will have a horse carrying 9-0 same as Guineas..with an OHR of 83 as the top weight is 9-7 in 3yo races normally..the two seconds is worth 40lb on their scale so that makes an average Timeform figure of about 123 for guineas
like i said. i believe its 20lb..Pru may tell us
if a G1 horse beats a truly run par 0-90 by 2.5+ seconds its some horse usually...if a G1 horse beats a fast run 0-90 by 2 seconds..like CC has....its pretty decent again
