On Good ground or faster, 1 second = 6 lengths.
Over a mile, 1 length = 2 lbs
So: 1 second = 12 lbs
Or: 1 lb = 0.083 seconds
The Newmarket 3yo handicap has only been run on 2000 Guineas day for the last six years. If we ignore all other races on the card, and assume that the handicap winner ran to his new official rating (as published the following week), that would give the last six Guineas winners a maximum time figure of:
119 Makfi (OR: 122)
121 Sea The Stars (OR: 121)
110 Henrythenavigator (OR: 121)
127 Cockney Rebel (OR: 120)
118 George Washington (OR: 124)
118 Footstepsinthesand (OR: 118)
Again, bear in mind that if we took into account evidence from other races, we might have to revise these downward (but almost certainly not significantly upward). With that disclaimed, I really don't see them as controversial. Sea The Stars and FITS are dead on. Makfi is 3lb slow. Cockney Rebel was potentially under-rated by his OR, but that might be one that comes down. George Washington looks potentially over-rated by his OR, and Henrythenavigator's race looks like it wasn't truly run (and would explain why something like Moynahan got so relatively close).
