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I'll have to find the spreadsheet I used..I'm sure I used more..from the 90's?..i'll check em.

I don't use future handicap marks..I use the current ones..future ones imo are misleading in the fact that some will be incorrect..ie too much and horse can't win off it. For example..this year the winner Oasis Dancer [OHR 93 in the race ran in Irish guineas and was beaten 16 lengths..so has ran below that mark there. The 2nd came out and just won off a 3lb higher mark..the 4th has come out and was a beaten fav off same mark. I doubt anyone would use future marks Gareth when making figures ..one reason is they don't actully rate off a wnner per se..if OD had recorded a fast time pointing to being better than the OHR then it would have moved out of the area for calculating the tracxk speed and would get a higher speed figure anyway.

I am talking generally about Class C and G1's..not just Newmarket guineas ones....the average is 2 seconds different when both races are truly run..and in an average 0-90 the 83 horse will carry 9-0...I highlight the 9-0 horse as when doing trad speed figures weights are brought to that level and its a fair compariosn against non handicaps as well when looking at bare times.

I've not checked all of them yet - but the 3yo handicap won by Dunelight in GW's year was slow by about 11lbs...thats confirmed by 3 other races on the card. That would make GW about 11 less than you have it.

I'll check these out Gareth..but I'm talking in general here...you can't use 12 or 14lb as a linear measure to assess the difference 2 seconds makes between two separate races..as pointed out..most of that superiority is in 2nd half of race..thats why I belive that T use 20lb per second...to allow for this.

<blockquote data-quote="EC1" data-source="post: 2246806" data-attributes="member: 65360">I&#039;ll have to find the spreadsheet I used..I&#039;m sure I used more..from the 90&#039;s?..i&#039;ll check em.&nbsp;I don&#039;t use future handicap marks..I use the current ones..future ones imo are misleading in the fact that some will be incorrect..ie too much and horse can&#039;t win off it. For example..this year the winner Oasis Dancer [OHR 93 in the race ran in Irish guineas and was beaten 16 lengths..so has ran below that mark there. The 2nd came out and just won off a 3lb higher mark..the 4th has come out and was a beaten fav off same mark. I doubt anyone would use future marks Gareth when making figures ..one reason is they don&#039;t actully rate off a wnner per se..if OD had recorded a fast time pointing to being better than the OHR then it would have moved out of the area for calculating the tracxk speed and would get a higher speed figure anyway.&nbsp;I am talking generally about Class C and G1&#039;s..not just Newmarket guineas ones....the average is 2 seconds different when both races are truly run..and in an average 0-90 the 83 horse will carry 9-0...I highlight the 9-0 horse as when doing trad speed figures weights are brought to that level and its a fair compariosn against non handicaps as well when looking at bare times.&nbsp;I&#039;ve not checked all of them yet - but the 3yo handicap won by Dunelight in GW&#039;s year was slow by about 11lbs...thats confirmed by 3 other races on the card. That would make GW about 11 less than you have it.&nbsp;I&#039;ll check these out Gareth..but I&#039;m talking in general here...you can&#039;t use 12 or 14lb as a linear measure to assess the difference 2 seconds makes between two separate races..as pointed out..most of that superiority is in 2nd half of race..thats why I belive that T use 20lb per second...to allow for this.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="EC1, post: 2246806, member: 65360"] I'll have to find the spreadsheet I used..I'm sure I used more..from the 90's?..i'll check em. I don't use future handicap marks..I use the current ones..future ones imo are misleading in the fact that some will be incorrect..ie too much and horse can't win off it. For example..this year the winner Oasis Dancer [OHR 93 in the race ran in Irish guineas and was beaten 16 lengths..so has ran below that mark there. The 2nd came out and just won off a 3lb higher mark..the 4th has come out and was a beaten fav off same mark. I doubt anyone would use future marks Gareth when making figures ..one reason is they don't actully rate off a wnner per se..if OD had recorded a fast time pointing to being better than the OHR then it would have moved out of the area for calculating the tracxk speed and would get a higher speed figure anyway. I am talking generally about Class C and G1's..not just Newmarket guineas ones....the average is 2 seconds different when both races are truly run..and in an average 0-90 the 83 horse will carry 9-0...I highlight the 9-0 horse as when doing trad speed figures weights are brought to that level and its a fair compariosn against non handicaps as well when looking at bare times. I've not checked all of them yet - but the 3yo handicap won by Dunelight in GW's year was slow by about 11lbs...thats confirmed by 3 other races on the card. That would make GW about 11 less than you have it. I'll check these out Gareth..but I'm talking in general here...you can't use 12 or 14lb as a linear measure to assess the difference 2 seconds makes between two separate races..as pointed out..most of that superiority is in 2nd half of race..thats why I belive that T use 20lb per second...to allow for this. [/QUOTE]

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