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checked spreadsheet..I must have used 1000g + 2000g when comparing..I've listed times but not the horses..there used to be an 8f handicap race on 1000 day

 

I haven't just used this meeting when i did all my calcs obviously..I did lots of class comparisons and the concensus is that 2 seconds is the difference between 0-90 handicaps  and G1 races..average fields but truly run.

 

I've checked the cards for these?:

 

 

119 Makfi (OR: 122)

121 Sea The Stars (OR: 121)

110 Henrythenavigator (OR: 121)

127 Cockney Rebel (OR: 120)

118 George Washington (OR: 124)

118 Footstepsinthesand (OR: 118)


when taking into account the other races

 

Makfi - OD's race 6 slow = 113..confirmed by two other races

Sea The Stars - Photographic 6 slow = 115..confirmed 2 other races

HenryThe Navigator - Duntulm 2 fast = 112..confirmed by most of races

Cockney Rebel - Aqmaar 6 slow = 121...most races on card confirm

George Washington - Dunelight - 11 slow..109..confirmed by 2 other races

Footstepinthesand - Notnowcato - 4 slow...114..confirmed by 2 other races

 

these are all too low aren't they?..the reason for that is because you can't use two different racetimes and treat them like one big race

 

You have to use a different mindset to just alloting 12 or 14 lb a second for two separate events..go back to the sectionals..the 2 second superiority is mainly being asserted in the last 4 furlongs..that is the bit you need to assess..and its more than 12/14 per second

 

Like I said..you won't get many horses breaking 118 .on your speed figures if you use weight adjusting methods and 12/14 lb per second based off OHR ratings..because there aren't many G1's that run 2.5+ seconds faster per mile than a 0-90.

 

Those that can run near or faster than the 2.5 seconds..like Cockney Rebel..are a little bit higher rated than 121 I think..CC has run faster than the 2.5 because the 0-90 race he ran against was faster than class.

 

CC is a very fast winner..imo

 

I don't know how others here calculate their figures..coz its a big secret like :)..but I know what I've learned through looking at lots of past races.

 

I've laid my views out now Gareth..I question the whole 12/14 lb per second thing..and I've clearly shown why.

 

I'll let someone else come on here now and show how they overcome this..I know how I do it.


5 + 3 = ?
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