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I had an exchange of emails this morning on this very subject - jumping and the National.

I had mentioned Saphir Du Rheu as a possible long-term (2 years?) plot for the race and pointed out that SDR was now 7lbs lower than when sent off the heavily touted 9/2f for the Hennessy last season. He'd won the Mildmay by 15 lengths and gave The Young Master 4lbs and a 7 length beating four weeks before Newbury. To win the Hennessy off 163 he'd really need to be a 173+ horse and a Gold Cup contender but he gets in here off 156.

I was asked if I seriously believed he could jump round Aintree.

My reply was that I'd dismissed Maori Venture and Rhyme N Reason, both of which I'd had top rated, on account of their jumping. It's a mistake I vowed never to repeat. I now do not let a horse's iffy jumping history put me off backing it for the National. It's a strategy that carries risks - obviously - but sometimes those fences just make them concentrate. Just as good jumpers can sometimes overdo it and come down, so iffy jumpers can simply take to the place.

Then again, there's an element of speculation with Saphir Du Rheu. He bombed in the Hennessy and hasn't really done it since, whereas Road To Riches has proven back class at the very top level and gets to run off a pound less...

<blockquote data-quote="Desert Orchid" data-source="post: 2565322" data-attributes="member: 65242">I had an exchange of emails this morning on this very subject - jumping and the National.I had mentioned Saphir Du Rheu as a possible long-term (2 years?) plot for the race and pointed out that SDR was now 7lbs lower than when sent off the heavily touted 9/2f for the Hennessy last season. He&#039;d won the Mildmay by 15 lengths and gave The Young Master 4lbs and a 7 length beating four weeks before Newbury. To win the Hennessy off 163 he&#039;d really need to be a 173+ horse and a Gold Cup contender but he gets in here off 156.I was asked if I seriously believed he could jump round Aintree.My reply was that I&#039;d dismissed Maori Venture and Rhyme N Reason, both of which I&#039;d had top rated, on account of their jumping. It&#039;s a mistake I vowed never to repeat. I now do not let a horse&#039;s iffy jumping history put me off backing it for the National. It&#039;s a strategy that carries risks - obviously - but sometimes those fences just make them concentrate. Just as good jumpers can sometimes overdo it and come down, so iffy jumpers can simply take to the place.Then again, there&#039;s an element of speculation with Saphir Du Rheu. He bombed in the Hennessy and hasn&#039;t really done it since, whereas Road To Riches has proven back class at the very top level and gets to run off a pound less...</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Desert Orchid, post: 2565322, member: 65242"] I had an exchange of emails this morning on this very subject - jumping and the National. I had mentioned Saphir Du Rheu as a possible long-term (2 years?) plot for the race and pointed out that SDR was now 7lbs lower than when sent off the heavily touted 9/2f for the Hennessy last season. He'd won the Mildmay by 15 lengths and gave The Young Master 4lbs and a 7 length beating four weeks before Newbury. To win the Hennessy off 163 he'd really need to be a 173+ horse and a Gold Cup contender but he gets in here off 156. I was asked if I seriously believed he could jump round Aintree. My reply was that I'd dismissed Maori Venture and Rhyme N Reason, both of which I'd had top rated, on account of their jumping. It's a mistake I vowed never to repeat. I now do not let a horse's iffy jumping history put me off backing it for the National. It's a strategy that carries risks - obviously - but sometimes those fences just make them concentrate. Just as good jumpers can sometimes overdo it and come down, so iffy jumpers can simply take to the place. Then again, there's an element of speculation with Saphir Du Rheu. He bombed in the Hennessy and hasn't really done it since, whereas Road To Riches has proven back class at the very top level and gets to run off a pound less... [/QUOTE]

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