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Still on the National, just a reminder that some horses are going to turn up on the day officially very well in.

Tenor Nivernais will be 10lbs well in for his Ascot win.

Vieux Lion Rouge will be 6lbs well in.

Definitely Red 10lbs.

You really need to have these types on your side otherwise you're defying the logic of handicapping.

My best guess is that the handicapper will rate the Gold Cup via Native River (168 going into the Gold Cup) and Djakadam (165). I reckon he'll leave Native River on his mark so will raise SDR (156) to about the 165/166 mark, a rise of 9/10lbs. Minella Rocco will go up 12lbs or so and there has to be the chance that he will be the first 7yo to win the race since 1940 and nowadays they don't hunt round for a circuit and then race for a circuit. They go the whole way and that requires physical maturity but maybe Minella Rocco is more mature than your average 7yo.

Remember, too, that a pound in the National is worth about two lengths so these well in horses are at a considerable advantage. If it was an ordinary Saturday handicap the'd be short-priced favourites. For further evidence, Native River got to race off the same mark in the Welsh National as he had done in the Hennessy. That in itself is something worth bearing in mind for next season. Might a new trend emerge whereby the Hennessy-Welsh National double (must be worth the best part of £400k - almost as much as winning the Grand National itself) is a target?

<blockquote data-quote="Desert Orchid" data-source="post: 2565347" data-attributes="member: 65242">Still on the National, just a reminder that some horses are going to turn up on the day officially very well in.Tenor Nivernais will be 10lbs well in for his Ascot win.Vieux Lion Rouge will be 6lbs well in.Definitely Red 10lbs.You really need to have these types on your side otherwise you&#039;re defying the logic of handicapping.My best guess is that the handicapper will rate the Gold Cup via Native River (168 going into the Gold Cup) and Djakadam (165). I reckon he&#039;ll leave Native River on his mark so will raise SDR (156) to about the 165/166 mark, a rise of 9/10lbs. Minella Rocco will go up 12lbs or so and there has to be the chance that he will be the first 7yo to win the race since 1940 and nowadays they don&#039;t hunt round for a circuit and then race for a circuit. They go the whole way and that requires physical maturity but maybe Minella Rocco is more mature than your average 7yo.Remember, too, that a pound in the National is worth about two lengths so these well in horses are at a considerable advantage. If it was an ordinary Saturday handicap the&#039;d be short-priced favourites. For further evidence, Native River got to race off the same mark in the Welsh National as he had done in the Hennessy. That in itself is something worth bearing in mind for next season. Might a new trend emerge whereby the Hennessy-Welsh National double (must be worth the best part of £400k - almost as much as winning the Grand National itself) is a target?</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Desert Orchid, post: 2565347, member: 65242"] Still on the National, just a reminder that some horses are going to turn up on the day officially very well in. Tenor Nivernais will be 10lbs well in for his Ascot win. Vieux Lion Rouge will be 6lbs well in. Definitely Red 10lbs. You really need to have these types on your side otherwise you're defying the logic of handicapping. My best guess is that the handicapper will rate the Gold Cup via Native River (168 going into the Gold Cup) and Djakadam (165). I reckon he'll leave Native River on his mark so will raise SDR (156) to about the 165/166 mark, a rise of 9/10lbs. Minella Rocco will go up 12lbs or so and there has to be the chance that he will be the first 7yo to win the race since 1940 and nowadays they don't hunt round for a circuit and then race for a circuit. They go the whole way and that requires physical maturity but maybe Minella Rocco is more mature than your average 7yo. Remember, too, that a pound in the National is worth about two lengths so these well in horses are at a considerable advantage. If it was an ordinary Saturday handicap the'd be short-priced favourites. For further evidence, Native River got to race off the same mark in the Welsh National as he had done in the Hennessy. That in itself is something worth bearing in mind for next season. Might a new trend emerge whereby the Hennessy-Welsh National double (must be worth the best part of £400k - almost as much as winning the Grand National itself) is a target? [/QUOTE]

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