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I think Luke's post is an excellent illustration of how people's perception of the race itself and value, not to mention their approach, can differ.

For me, Blaklion has a chance. Probably a decent chance. He does have a better than decent chance of being in the first five or six and if I were to limit myself to one bet in the race it might be one with a profile like his that I'd favour.

However, I could never bring myself to back a 14/1 shot each-way in the race. A tenner each-way would slightly more than double your money if it gets placed. I'm not sure I think it's worth it. I'd rather spend the place portion of the bet on a second horse with just as good a chance.

I'm already on a few in the race (at very nice odds) and will add more before the off. I don't see a problem with backing ten in the race if they're all at longer odds than their true chances and win for one will probably give a nice profit.

I'm in the process of eliminating the ones I like the least and hopefully will leave myself with a hopeful handful but the ones I'm immediately discounting are:

Shantou Flyer
Le Mercurey
Ucello Conti
Double Shuffle
Roi Des Francs
Highland Lodge
Saint Are
Just A Par
Gas Line Boy
Goodtoknow
La Vaticane

<blockquote data-quote="Desert Orchid" data-source="post: 2565524" data-attributes="member: 65242">I think Luke&#039;s post is an excellent illustration of how people&#039;s perception of the race itself and value, not to mention their approach, can differ.For me, Blaklion has a chance. Probably a decent chance. He does have a better than decent chance of being in the first five or six and if I were to limit myself to one bet in the race it might be one with a profile like his that I&#039;d favour.However, I could never bring myself to back a 14/1 shot each-way in the race. A tenner each-way would slightly more than double your money if it gets placed. I&#039;m not sure I think it&#039;s worth it. I&#039;d rather spend the place portion of the bet on a second horse with just as good a chance.I&#039;m already on a few in the race (at very nice odds) and will add more before the off. I don&#039;t see a problem with backing ten in the race if they&#039;re all at longer odds than their true chances and win for one will probably give a nice profit.I&#039;m in the process of eliminating the ones I like the least and hopefully will leave myself with a hopeful handful but the ones I&#039;m immediately discounting are:Shantou FlyerLe MercureyUcello ContiDouble ShuffleRoi Des FrancsHighland LodgeSaint AreJust A ParGas Line BoyGoodtoknowLa Vaticane</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Desert Orchid, post: 2565524, member: 65242"] I think Luke's post is an excellent illustration of how people's perception of the race itself and value, not to mention their approach, can differ. For me, Blaklion has a chance. Probably a decent chance. He does have a better than decent chance of being in the first five or six and if I were to limit myself to one bet in the race it might be one with a profile like his that I'd favour. However, I could never bring myself to back a 14/1 shot each-way in the race. A tenner each-way would slightly more than double your money if it gets placed. I'm not sure I think it's worth it. I'd rather spend the place portion of the bet on a second horse with just as good a chance. I'm already on a few in the race (at very nice odds) and will add more before the off. I don't see a problem with backing ten in the race if they're all at longer odds than their true chances and win for one will probably give a nice profit. I'm in the process of eliminating the ones I like the least and hopefully will leave myself with a hopeful handful but the ones I'm immediately discounting are: Shantou Flyer Le Mercurey Ucello Conti Double Shuffle Roi Des Francs Highland Lodge Saint Are Just A Par Gas Line Boy Goodtoknow La Vaticane [/QUOTE]

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