The 2021 Grand National

I am hoping The Storyteller is allowed to take his chance 50/1...always seems to be running on a he end oh his races this trip might see him run into a place
 
wilsonl said:
Maybe Hemmings has told him there's no point ;)
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Three?

Okay out on a limb prepared to look even more stupid than normal:
Yala Enki 33-1??? Really??????

and

don't laugh - Keeper Hill to get round and carry your money if he gets in/runs. Seriously he'll keep going, if it turns into slog, he'll finish and who knows what might happen.
 
Fairyhouse 3rd April - 5th April
Aintree 8th April - 10th April
Punchestown 27th April - 1st May

Could we see a record low number of Irish runners at Aintree?
 
Slim said:
Fairyhouse 3rd April - 5th April
Aintree 8th April - 10th April
Punchestown 27th April - 1st May

Could we see a record low number of Irish runners at Aintree?
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19 Irish horses aren't eligible to run yet...41 altogether haven't run 1,2,3,4 over 3 miles this season.
 
G-G said:
Okay out on a limb prepared to look even more stupid than normal:
Yala Enki 33-1??? Really??????
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Well, tough and admirable though he is, G-G, it's hard to argue that he's well enough handicapped to win the race. He'll be just about top weight and will be giving 21lbs to horses that might really only be 14lbs inferior.

I'm happy to hold off until I've done a trawl of the handicap and wouldn't dismiss him completely because he one I've liked since he was a hurdler but I reckon he'll still be 33/1 when the weights come out in a couple of weeks' time. At that point maybe some bookies will go NRNB.

I'm still gobsmacked that Nicholls is so light on entries.
 
I had no plans to look at the race until the weights came out but curiosity got the better of me as I typed the above and I've ended up having a second bet in the race (the first was Le Breuil at 50/1 before his recent run, now 40s tops so I'm feeling okay so far with that).

I've taken Beware The Bear 100/1 to 5 places. He went up to 158 for winning the 2019 Ultima and later that calendar year was a close, staying-on fourth in the Hennessy/Ladbroke off that mark.

He's down to 153, just 2lbs above his Ultima mark so he's entitled to be on the premises and Hendo has said more than once he sees him as a National type. If the likes of Bristol De Mai stand their ground he'll get in under 11-0.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Well, tough and admirable though he is, G-G, it's hard to argue that he's well enough handicapped to win the race. He'll be just about top weight and will be giving 21lbs to horses that might really only be 14lbs inferior.
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If Santini runs, Yala Enki will run off 11-01...Any deviation in the handicap would be unfair...It would be penalising the lower-rated horses.

As we stand right now with horses that are not eligible to run....Run Wild Fred is 66th in the handicap but 40th on eligibility, and he will carry 10-02 if Santini holds his ground.

This is a very strange one for the handicapper this year, there aren't very many at the top of the handicap (no standout horse to punish...Tiger Roll 11 year old and showed signs of waining) that can be cut...Top weight is (11-10) the top weight after all...someone has to carry it.
Hendo surely runs Santini, boss the handicap....Beware The Bear gets in 18Lb lighter.
There's quite a few gambling on qualifying after the weights are announced.
 
Maxbet said:
Hendo surely runs Santini, boss the handicap....Beware The Bear gets in 18Lb lighter.
There's quite a few gambling on qualifying after the weights are announced.
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I'll be staggered if Hendo runs Santini, unless he has an off-day in the Gold Cup. I suppose it's possible he might run him with the instruction to pull up early but can't see that happening myself.

I hope the handicapper holds firm over Tiger Roll and puts him in with top weight on 170. That would give smugfucker O'Leary a decision to make.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'll be staggered if Hendo runs Santini, unless he has an off-day in the Gold Cup. I suppose it's possible he might run him with the instruction to pull up early but can't see that happening myself.

I hope the handicapper holds firm over Tiger Roll and puts him in with top weight on 170. That would give smugfucker O'Leary a decision to make.
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Delta work is the official top weight, Same weight as Santini, and he qualifies if he doesn't come last in the Irish G cup!

Bristol de Mai is only a Lb below them and they are talking up a National run!

Presenting Percy (definite according to Elliott) only a Lb below BDM.

Who catches Cloth Cap off 10-08...
 
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I presumed Delta Work would be scratched along the way. I wonder if his entry is a ploy of some sort to support an argument in favour of letting Tiger Roll in off a lower rating. Tiger Roll was 171 until his last run for which he has come down to 168 but I wouldn't mind seeing the handicapper bump him back up on account of his race record.

I think BDM would be a sight to behold over these fences and would love to see him stand his ground for the sake of the handicap. That would let BTB in around the 10-8 mark and would push one or two of the potential light-weight plots out of the handicap. The chances are they'd allow him 2lbs, though, for the race so it probably wouldn't make much of a difference as you really need to be rated 144+ to make the cut anyway.

I could probably carry you, Maxbet, and catch Cloth Cap off his new mark :p
 
Desert Orchid said:
That would give smugfucker O'Leary a decision to make.
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:) slightly off topic so forgive me, but I am always slightly torn on this one, yes I would love to see the fcuker squirm but its not the horses fault they are owned by an arse, and there are some lovely horses, Tiger Roll being the perfect example, if he was owned by anyone else - well maybe not Ricci - I could get on board a lot easier!!

Back on topic and I agree with Le Brueil and Lord Du Mensil was another that is on my radar, second in the NHC last season off 153, back down to 149 and had a nice sighter of the course and fences in the grand sefton.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
I agree with Le Brueil and Lord Du Mensil was another that is on my radar, second in the NHC last season off 153, back down to 149 and had a nice sighter of the course and fences in the Grand Sefton.
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I think Le Brueil has been running (trying) with the idea of going up in the handicap...he will struggle to get in unless he shows something before the weights are out. Haydock maybe...
 
Maxbet said:
I think Le Brueil has been running (trying) with the idea of going up in the handicap...he will struggle to get in unless he shows something before the weights are out. Haydock maybe...
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Totally agree, which is why I backed him last time; I thought he needed to win to make the cut. I was very disappointed at the way he went flat with about a mile to go before running on strongly. He wouldn't be able to afford to hit a flat spot in the big one. I backed him to give me the option of laying off or cashing out but it is hard to fancy him seriously at this stage to win.
 
I’m hoping Yala Enki runs but can’t help but feel the owners won’t allow it. In previous years I’ve often found that my most successful National bets have been ones I’ve backed at 33/1 ante post. Unfortunately Mon Mome was one of those. Keeper Hill is my cliff horse this year: I hadn’t realised he’d been entered. Usually National entries/weights/race day are the highlights of my year but I can’t summon up my usual enthusiasm this year.
 
Maxbet said:
I think Le Brueil has been running (trying) with the idea of going up in the handicap...he will struggle to get in unless he shows something before the weights are out. Haydock maybe...
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Desert Orchid said:
Totally agree, which is why I backed him last time; I thought he needed to win to make the cut. I was very disappointed at the way he went flat with about a mile to go before running on strongly. He wouldn't be able to afford to hit a flat spot in the big one. I backed him to give me the option of laying off or cashing out but it is hard to fancy him seriously at this stage to win.
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Running in the Edinburgh national on Sat....
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, I'm working on the card just now.
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I've now spread some money across multiple accounts at 4/1, having just missed the 9/2 that was going earlier. I got halfway through the field before concluding Le Breuil just has to win. Firstly, he needs to in order to get into the National and he needs to win well enough to go up at least 5lbs so he will be off for his life.

He's a mid 150s Class 2 horse getting in off 140 against Class 3 and Class 4 opponents who are yoyoing up and down the handicap.

I'll be surprised if he doesn't end up shorter than 2/1.
 
moe said:
I’m hoping Yala Enki runs but can’t help but feel the owners won’t allow it. In previous years I’ve often found that my most successful National bets have been ones I’ve backed at 33/1 ante post. Unfortunately Mon Mome was one of those. Keeper Hill is my cliff horse this year: I hadn’t realised he’d been entered. Usually National entries/weights/race day are the highlights of my year but I can’t summon up my usual enthusiasm this year.
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I backed Amberleigh House at 33s. I can't see YE not getting round if he runs. He's got to be there, thereabouts. Bryony will nurse him round. I can see it now, coming to the last on the inside, she's sitting lower but not gone for him.... :)
 
moe said:
I’m hoping Yala Enki runs but can’t help but feel the owners won’t allow it. In previous years I’ve often found that my most successful National bets have been ones I’ve backed at 33/1 ante post. Unfortunately Mon Mome was one of those. Keeper Hill is my cliff horse this year: I hadn’t realised he’d been entered. Usually National entries/weights/race day are the highlights of my year but I can’t summon up my usual enthusiasm this year.
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Keeper Hill - always the target :) Been entered punching above his weight maybe but...means to an end.
 
Bryony has become my Velvet Brown. Given that life over the past year has been pretty weird to say the least to see someone live out my childhood fantasy would somehow be like the beginning of something better. And I think it would be fantastic for racing.
 
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