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The 2025 Derby

Ian_Davies

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Word reaches me that there is a clamour among the TH Massive to be informed of your favourite Uncle SmartArse's "Derbfolio" so here it is: The Lion In Winter, Delacroix and, hastily after the 2,000 Guineas he nicked off Gosden, Ruling Court at 6/1 (seeing as he is by Justify out of a High Chaparral mare).

Exciting times!
 
Ruling Court 5/1 best now - unless something wins a trial by half the track, I can't see the Guineas winner starting bigger than 5/2 at Epsom Downs if he goes there which, on pedigree, looks probable to me.
 
The thought of a tongue tied Derby winner is something Tesio never had on his wish list I'm sure.
That said Ruling Court traces back to African Dancer, my first Oaks bet when placed behind Pawneese in 1976.
The dam sires through his ancestors ; High Chaparral, Cape Cross, Nashwan, Lomond , Welsh Pageant and Nijinsky are a who's who of equine talent tracing my lifetime.
 
The Betfred Derby will become a 72-hour declaration race in 2025 for the first time in its 245-year history,

In an historic move, The Jockey Club has announced that the world’s most famous Flat race, which was first staged in 1780 and is one of the five Betfred British Classics, is the first Group One race staged in Britain to introduce 72-hour declarations.

It is hoped that bringing forward the deadline to confirm horses and jockeys by an extra 24 hours will prove beneficial in building a sense of anticipation and excitement both domestically and globally for the prestigious £1.5 million contest, which is staged at Epsom Downs and was broadcast by a record 36 broadcasters across 160 territories worldwide in 2024.

The change is the latest in a line of firsts at Epsom Downs Racecourse, including:

  • Staging the first recorded horse race in the UK on March 7 1661 in the presence of King Charles II.
  • The Derby became the first horse race to be filmed in 1896 and was shown in cinemas after the event.
  • Then in 1931, the Derby became the first televised horse race and first remote outside television broadcast in the world.
  • The Grand Metropolitan at Epsom Downs was the first horse race to use a Photo-Finish, on April 22nd 1947.
The 246th running of the Betfred Derby is due to take place this year on Saturday June 7. With 72-hour declarations now in place, this means the final field for the Betfred Derby will be known shortly after 10am on Wednesday June 4, with all decisions on jockey bookings confirmed by 1pm on the same date.

Jim Allen, General Manager of Epsom, said: "This racecourse has been at the forefront of positive change and new initiatives in British horseracing for generations, with The Derby becoming the first race to be filmed back in 1896 and then the first sporting event to be broadcast in 1931.

“We’re delighted to be able to introduce 72 hour declarations for this year’s Betfred Derby, demonstrating that we are always looking for new ways to innovate and ensure that our sport’s most iconic Flat race continues to stand out from the rest.

“Having consulted with a range of stakeholders on this issue we are confident that this change will not only help build anticipation for the world’s most famous Flat race earlier in the week but also provide more certainty around the runners and riders on the day, driving more interest and engagement in advance of the start of the Betfred Derby Festival.

“We are hugely grateful to the British Horseracing Authority for their co-operation and help in order to make this change happen at relatively short notice, and to all those participants who have supported us in making this move.”
 
I see AOB is having a bit of a whinge about it.

I have nothing against it happening with this race (and maybe the Grand National) due to their global appeal. I'm a big fan of 48-hr decs but don't know if I would want all races extended to 72h decs. Not sure if it happens anywhere else in the world as a matter of course although I think some big races do have at least 72h decs, maybe more.
 
I really don't care either way - obviously it will result in marginally more non runners between final decs and post time than occur now, but so what?

It's about as newsworthy as bringing the Champions' League draw forward 24 hours in football would be.
 
Cut by 4 bookmakers to 25/1 from 33s this morning
Mischief
Mischief
Mischief
Mischief
Mischief
Mischief
Mischief



STARZINTHEIREYES
He has got a small issue and won’t appear until the second half of the season which is disappointing. Despite who he is by (Starspangledbanner) I think he is a stayer in the making. I would imagine he won’t appear until around the July Meeting at Newmarket or something like that and we will then work our way into the autumn. Something like a Bahrain Trophy is what we could start him in and he could possibly be a St Leger horse. He outstayed them in the Zetland Stakes so you would think that is a realistic aim. You don’t look at him and think stayer, but his way of running would suggest he is. I thought they went hard in the Zetland and he went better to the line than anything else. His profile suggests that further than a mile and half would be where he will be best suited.


RALPH BECKETT STABLE TOUR TODAY

22 of the bookmakers have taken him out of the betting and 7 still pricing him up, I wonder is there a bit of "sharp practice" here or has he improved quicker than the stable predicted.
 
Given the improvements in weather forecasting with satellites and digital processing, and ground management across all sports (think how barren football pitches used to look in the past at this time of year), it is a perfectly natural step to go to 72 hour decs for big races.

Yes, things can go wrong with horses at any time, and there will be non runners because of it, but the balance of convenience is in favour of bringing the declaration deadline forward.
 
RALPH BECKETT STABLE TOUR TODAY

22 of the bookmakers have taken him out of the betting and 7 still pricing him up, I wonder is there a bit of "sharp practice" here or has he improved quicker than the stable predicted.
What did he say about his Oaks fillies?
 
this one

SMOKEN
She surprised me all year. We thought she was a maiden winner, but we didn’t envisage her winning a stakes race at two although I’m not sure how strong of a race it was. Although she was well backed I didn’t think we were that confident going into the race. She travelled really well through the race then paddled a bit coming out of the dip, but I still thought it was a big effort despite her short price. She will appear in one of those Oaks trials in the first half of May whichever one we feel fits best. The Musidora at York might be the way we go with her.
 
BRIGHT TIMES AHEAD
She is a filly that we always had a big opinion of. She wasn’t the most robust and she was quite immature. We sat and watched her win her maiden at Newmarket while I was in Del Mar with her owner and that went down quite well. She is pretty talented and I think she will get a mile and a half, but I’ve got to prove that. If she does stay then we are in business. I think she is going to have to go into a mile and a quarter Oaks trial and work our way from there, however the Michael Seely Memorial Stakes at York might be a possibility as well.
 
Getting this DERBY 😂 thread back on track, Delacroix impressed me today at Leopardstown.

Some say he didn't beat much, but the field was full of colts with three-figure ORs and he found plenty at the business end.

Very happy with my 16/1 and consider Ruling Court (got 6/1 him) a bigger danger than Delacroix's stablemate The Lion In Winter who returns to York in the Dante with plenty to prove and is ludicrously short in The Derby betting given he hasn't been sighted since the Acomb and Ruling Court is a completely different colt now.
 
A small detail but Delacroix tried to exit the parade ring into the saddling area on a few occasions walking around.
He has a chin strap to keep his mouth closed.
They went absolutely no pace early on but finished well; the fillies' maiden was nearly three seconds faster.
He is a proper looking racehorse though.
 
Thanks for that.

Dubawi wouldn't be my favourite sire and I don't think he's ever had a Derby winner, but he's had a King George winner in Postponed and Delacroix looks to me like a colt who wants 1m4f already.

If I'm right, a slowly-run 1m2f wouldn't have suited him so he's done well to win today (and last time) with the authority he has.

The Lion In Winter might bolt in at York, but he goes there with similar credentials to High Definition in my book and we all know what happened to him.
 
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Is Delacroix following the right route to Derby glory?




I hadn't been a racing journalist for long when it began to seem that the path to Derby glory was really obvious. You win the Ballysax, then the Leopardstown Derby Trial and then on to Epsom glory.

Galileo was the first to collect all three, in 2001. Then High Chaparral did the same thing the very next year. They were Aidan O'Brien's first Derby winners, but it was clear there was going to be a lot more where they came from.

In a way, High Chaparral was the third in a row to follow this path because there had also been Sinndar in 2000. He suffered the only defeat of his life in the Ballysax, possibly a consequence of trying to do his own donkey work from the front on his seasonal appearance. Anyway, he then won the Derby Trial and the Derby.

Irish winners of the Derby had become unusual. Sinndar was the first since Secreto turned over El Gran Senor in 1984. Things are different now; since 2008, just five Derby winners have been trained in Britain.

So you'd think the old Ballysax - Derby Trial route would have become pretty well trodden. And now here's Delacroix, the latest to win both races and naturally a pretty hot number in the betting for Epsom.

But hold the phone! The last to complete this particular treble was, er, High Chaparral, whose big day was 23 years ago.

Since then, eight horses have done the Ballysax / Derby Trial double and then failed to get the glory at Epsom. What went wrong for them and does this cool your enthusiasm about Delacroix?

Yeats 2004
Injury was the problem here. Yeats missed the rest of the season after his Leopardstown wins. He'd have gone very close, considering he won the Coronation Cup over the Derby course and distance in 2005.

Mind you, if he'd been fit enough to win the Derby, we'd never have got to see him win four Gold Cups at Royal Ascot. In the end, the Queen unveiled his statue and how many Derby winners can say that?

Fame And Glory 2009
It feels pretty embarrassing to have backed Fame And Glory to beat Sea The Stars in the 2009 Derby but evidently it wasn't only me who made that crashing blunder, because, incredible as it may seem, Fame And Glory started favourite.



Anyway, it will not surprise you to learn that he wasn't quite as good as Sea The Stars, who had won the 2,000 Guineas and went on to win several other excellent prizes.

Fame And Glory was sent down the Yeats route, winning a Coronation Cup and a Gold Cup.

Light Heavy 2012
Here's a name that doesn't ring down through the ages. Light Heavy wasn't even entered for Epsom and, after he turned over the odds-on Wrote in the Derby Trial, Jim Bolger dismissed any idea that he might be supplemented.

He went straight to the Irish Derby, where he was a distant third behind the Epsom winner, Camelot (another Guineas winner).

Battle Of Marengo 2013
Yes, you'd forgotten about this guy, too, I bet. But the Derby Trial was his fifth success in a row and the Racing Post's analyst wrote: "With all due respect to the two Chester winners and to the wide-margin Lingfield winner, this is the colt who truly matters from a Derby perspective," though he also had to concede that we learned nothing new about him from the Derby Trial success.

Sound familiar? In fairness, Delacroix was a lot more visually impressive on Sunday. Battle Of Marengo turned out to be pretty one-paced and the warning signs were there at Leopardstown.

He wasn't Derby favourite in the end because Dawn Approach (Guineas winner) had a go at Epsom, where he spectacularly failed to settle and finished last. Even so, Battle Of Marengo couldn't fight his way into the places, plodding home fourth behind his slightly less fancied stablemate Ruler Of The World, who had taken the Chester Vase route.

Fascinating Rock 2014
His Ballysax was run at Navan and he needed the stewards to put him in the winner's enclosure after the Derby Trial, so he is only just a qualifier for our system. Anyway, he didn't really want 1m4f as a three-year-old and was well held behind Australia in the English and Irish Derbys on the way to proving his class over ten furlongs.

There were 16 runners in the 2014 Derby and the race went wrong for him. He got trapped wide and had a bit of a barging match with Western Hymn.

His case is a useful reminder of the Derby's dangers. You can pick a really talented animal with a big future and still have that deflating experience of seeing him run no race at all.

Success Days 2015
A star for Ken Condon, this grey liked a bit of give underfoot and there was really no secret about that. It was heavy going for both his Leopardstown wins but then he met good to firm at Epsom and came back with sore shins.

There were other days for him.

Broome 2019
A Galway maiden had been his only win from five starts as a juvenile but Broome looked a better horse over 1m2f as a three-year-old and won by eight lengths in the Ballysax, albeit soft ground exaggerated the margin.

In the Derby Trial, he could only beat his 86-rated pacemaker by two and a half lengths. Enough folk smelled a rat for him to be ousted as Derby favourite by Sir Dragonet.

It was one of those Derbys in which O'Brien ran the lot; he saddled seven, four of whom contributed to a thrilling finish, along with Kevin Prendergast's Madhmoon. Anthony Van Dyck won, while Broome was only fourth but beaten just three parts of a length.

Bolshoi Ballet 2021
This is a worrying precedent for fans of Delacroix. Bolshoi Ballet looked convincing in his Derby Trial, readily pulling clear of his rivals in the straight.

He was sent off at 11-8 for the Derby, in which he was O'Brien's sole runner - the first time for 17 years that the master trainer had narrowed his focus to that extent. But Bolshoi Ballet could finish just seventh of 11.

He'd got warm beforehand, he got struck into, he raced three wide and saw lots of daylight.

Rain on watered ground was probably a big factor because he liked it quick. Understandably, his two top-class wins came in the US.

What does it all mean?
It's useful to reacquaint ourselves with all the things that can go wrong in a Derby, or in the build-up to same, and to consider the wide range of post-defeat explanations that can be offered.

Delacroix is a general 4-1 shot for Epsom, having been halved in price after Sunday's success. Is there enough twang in those odds to take account of all the risks? Definitely not, I'd say, though I seem to have backed him anyway.

He looks good but those Leopardstown races have quite a bit of form for building reputations that got dented next time out. Maybe the Guineas winner will simply be better than him. Maybe he's not even the best Derby contender in his own yard.



Let's take a deep breath and at least wait for Thursday's race before committing any (more) ante-post rashness.


Racingpost
 
Do people actually pay to read this barely-scratch-the-surface apology for analysis in the RP?

4/1 now is the right price - when he was 16/1 was the time to back him (and I did).

You've got to look at the individual horse, not just the route they took, plenty of Ballysax/Derby Trial winners you couldn't have fancied for Epsom, but a few you could - like Harzand and Sinndar.

And if Delacroix is no value at 4/1 now, how bad value is The Lion In Winter at even shorter?

Like Maurice and as previously stated in my "Derbfolio" posting, I've got double-digit odds the Acomb winner for Epsom, but I'd want them as he hasn't run since last August, whereas his stablemate had come out and won twice.

Fascinating week coming up.
 
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Thanks for that.

Dubawi wouldn't be my favourite sire and I don't think he's ever had a Derby winner, but he's had a King George winner in Postponed and Delacroix looks to me like a colt who wants 1m4f already.

If I'm right, a slowly-run 1m2f wouldn't have suited him so he's done well to win today (and last time) with the authority he has.

The Lion In Winter might bolt in at York, but he goes there with similar credentials to High Definition in my book and we all know what happened to him.

His half sister (out of a Galileo mare) stayed a mile and six so there's every chance. And run style suggests he'll stay like you said, reminds me of Erhabb who might be the last Derby winner who stayed despite the predigree. I've no bet at the moment but with this fella and the front two from the Poulains and Field of Gold - we could have a really good crop of 3yos.
 
'Class' Delacroix emerges as a huge Epsom contender with powerful display in Derby Trial


Delacroix kicked off a sensational few minutes for Ballydoyle with a commanding performance at Leopardstown to bolster his credentials for the Derby, moments before Henri Matisse just held on to land the French 2,000 Guineas at Longchamp.

The Dubawi colt enjoyed a productive juvenile campaign, winning two of his five starts, including the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket in October, before being denied by a nose in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy at Doncaster after a prolonged tussle with Hotazhell.

He returned this season with a straightforward success in the Ballysax, relishing the extra two furlongs in trip to defeat subsequent Chester Vase winner Lambourn. Following that authoritative display, he went off a heavily supported 1-3 favourite for the Group 3 Cashel Hotel Derby Trial Stakes and it proved every bit as straightforward as his prohibitive odds suggested it would be.

Wayne Lordan settled his mount in second tracking stablemate Rock Of Cashel, who had Gavin Ryan on board setting the fractions, and he was always travelling within his comfort zone before the pair took over at the two-furlong pole.


Chris Hayes was moving menacingly behind on the Dermot Weld-trained Purview, who was having just his second start, and he got within a length before the winner clicked into another gear and settled matters with a splendid turn of foot to come home two and three-quarter lengths in front.

Delecroix was cut to a general 4-1 (from 6) for the Betfred-backed Derby and now sits a close third in the betting for the Epsom Classic, behind stablemate and favourite The Lion In Winter at 11-4 and 2,000 Guineas winner Ruling Court at 7-2.

Aidan O'Brien's stable representative Chris Armstrong said: "Gavin went off at an even tempo and Wayne got a lovely lead into it. When he got after him at the furlong and a half point, the most impressive aspect was how he really lengthened and quickened to the line.

"His home work has been very good since his last race, he's come forward lovely and all being well he'll come forward again, so we're looking forward to Epsom."

It continued a remarkable week for the Ballydoyle operation, with 11 Group or Listed winners at six different tracks, with Lordan partnering six winners for the stable over the weekend.

Lordan said: "Delacroix seems to have improved a lot from his last run here and felt in good form at home. He's well in himself and the race worked beautifully. He has a good cruising speed and can quicken. He hit the line well.

"I think he's an Epsom horse. He has some class."
 
For the numerically minded, since 2000, 44 horses have gone from the Lingfield Derby 'Trial' Flat Stakes 1m 3f 133y Listed to the following Derby and only 2 (4.6%) have won and within that group were 20 winners of the Lingfield Derby Trial and only one (5.0%) has won the Derby
 
Tornado Alert at 100/1 ( bet 365 ) appeals to me ew.
Ran a stormer for one so inexperienced in the Guineas.
Has stamina in his pedigree, with a winning hurdler amongst his half brothers.
Trainer not frightened of chucking them in the deep end.
 
Tornado Alert at 100/1 ( bet 365 ) appeals to me ew.
Ran a stormer for one so inexperienced in the Guineas.
Has stamina in his pedigree, with a winning hurdler amongst his half brothers.
Trainer not frightened of chucking them in the deep end.
Agreed. He did run really well, looking like he would be swamped 2f out, but running on well, to see off all but the 3, possibly top class, milers, mile and a quarter horses in front. His trainer said he definitely goes to the Derby and thinks he will improve over further. Given some of the decidedly average placed horses in recent Derbies, this is a very arractive price.
 
I'm happy with Delacroix. I picked him out (see Flatties to Follow 2024) on July 25th last year when he made his debut. He was second that day but something about his physique (and the fact he's out of Breeder's Cup Mile winner Tepin) made me take a really good look at him.
 
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