Is Delacroix following the right route to Derby glory?
I hadn't been a racing journalist for long when it began to seem that the path to Derby glory was really obvious. You win the Ballysax, then the Leopardstown Derby Trial and then on to Epsom glory.
Galileo was the first to collect all three, in 2001. Then High Chaparral did the same thing the very next year. They were Aidan O'Brien's first Derby winners, but it was clear there was going to be a lot more where they came from.
In a way, High Chaparral was the third in a row to follow this path because there had also been Sinndar in 2000. He suffered the only defeat of his life in the Ballysax, possibly a consequence of trying to do his own donkey work from the front on his seasonal appearance. Anyway, he then won the Derby Trial and the Derby.
Irish winners of the Derby had become unusual. Sinndar was the first since Secreto turned over El Gran Senor in 1984. Things are different now; since 2008, just five Derby winners have been trained in Britain.
So you'd think the old Ballysax - Derby Trial route would have become pretty well trodden. And now here's Delacroix, the latest to win both races and naturally a pretty hot number in the betting for Epsom.
But hold the phone! The last to complete this particular treble was, er, High Chaparral, whose big day was 23 years ago.
Since then, eight horses have done the Ballysax / Derby Trial double and then failed to get the glory at Epsom. What went wrong for them and does this cool your enthusiasm about Delacroix?
Yeats 2004
Injury was the problem here. Yeats missed the rest of the season after his Leopardstown wins. He'd have gone very close, considering he won the Coronation Cup over the Derby course and distance in 2005.
Mind you, if he'd been fit enough to win the Derby, we'd never have got to see him win four Gold Cups at Royal Ascot. In the end, the Queen unveiled his statue and how many Derby winners can say that?
Fame And Glory 2009
It feels pretty embarrassing to have backed Fame And Glory to beat Sea The Stars in the 2009 Derby but evidently it wasn't only me who made that crashing blunder, because, incredible as it may seem, Fame And Glory started favourite.
Anyway, it will not surprise you to learn that he wasn't quite as good as Sea The Stars, who had won the 2,000 Guineas and went on to win several other excellent prizes.
Fame And Glory was sent down the Yeats route, winning a Coronation Cup and a Gold Cup.
Light Heavy 2012
Here's a name that doesn't ring down through the ages. Light Heavy wasn't even entered for Epsom and, after he turned over the odds-on Wrote in the Derby Trial, Jim Bolger dismissed any idea that he might be supplemented.
He went straight to the Irish Derby, where he was a distant third behind the Epsom winner, Camelot (another Guineas winner).
Battle Of Marengo 2013
Yes, you'd forgotten about this guy, too, I bet. But the Derby Trial was his fifth success in a row and the Racing Post's analyst wrote: "With all due respect to the two Chester winners and to the wide-margin Lingfield winner, this is the colt who truly matters from a Derby perspective," though he also had to concede that we learned nothing new about him from the Derby Trial success.
Sound familiar? In fairness, Delacroix was a lot more visually impressive on Sunday. Battle Of Marengo turned out to be pretty one-paced and the warning signs were there at Leopardstown.
He wasn't Derby favourite in the end because Dawn Approach (Guineas winner) had a go at Epsom, where he spectacularly failed to settle and finished last. Even so, Battle Of Marengo couldn't fight his way into the places, plodding home fourth behind his slightly less fancied stablemate Ruler Of The World, who had taken the Chester Vase route.
Fascinating Rock 2014
His Ballysax was run at Navan and he needed the stewards to put him in the winner's enclosure after the Derby Trial, so he is only just a qualifier for our system. Anyway, he didn't really want 1m4f as a three-year-old and was well held behind Australia in the English and Irish Derbys on the way to proving his class over ten furlongs.
There were 16 runners in the 2014 Derby and the race went wrong for him. He got trapped wide and had a bit of a barging match with Western Hymn.
His case is a useful reminder of the Derby's dangers. You can pick a really talented animal with a big future and still have that deflating experience of seeing him run no race at all.
Success Days 2015
A star for Ken Condon, this grey liked a bit of give underfoot and there was really no secret about that. It was heavy going for both his Leopardstown wins but then he met good to firm at Epsom and came back with sore shins.
There were other days for him.
Broome 2019
A Galway maiden had been his only win from five starts as a juvenile but Broome looked a better horse over 1m2f as a three-year-old and won by eight lengths in the Ballysax, albeit soft ground exaggerated the margin.
In the Derby Trial, he could only beat his 86-rated pacemaker by two and a half lengths. Enough folk smelled a rat for him to be ousted as Derby favourite by Sir Dragonet.
It was one of those Derbys in which O'Brien ran the lot; he saddled seven, four of whom contributed to a thrilling finish, along with Kevin Prendergast's Madhmoon. Anthony Van Dyck won, while Broome was only fourth but beaten just three parts of a length.
Bolshoi Ballet 2021
This is a worrying precedent for fans of Delacroix. Bolshoi Ballet looked convincing in his Derby Trial, readily pulling clear of his rivals in the straight.
He was sent off at 11-8 for the Derby, in which he was O'Brien's sole runner - the first time for 17 years that the master trainer had narrowed his focus to that extent. But Bolshoi Ballet could finish just seventh of 11.
He'd got warm beforehand, he got struck into, he raced three wide and saw lots of daylight.
Rain on watered ground was probably a big factor because he liked it quick. Understandably, his two top-class wins came in the US.
What does it all mean?
It's useful to reacquaint ourselves with all the things that can go wrong in a Derby, or in the build-up to same, and to consider the wide range of post-defeat explanations that can be offered.
Delacroix is a general 4-1 shot for Epsom, having been halved in price after Sunday's success. Is there enough twang in those odds to take account of all the risks? Definitely not, I'd say, though I seem to have backed him anyway.
He looks good but those Leopardstown races have quite a bit of form for building reputations that got dented next time out. Maybe the Guineas winner will simply be better than him. Maybe he's not even the best Derby contender in his own yard.
Let's take a deep breath and at least wait for Thursday's race before committing any (more) ante-post rashness.
Racingpost
thread back on track, Delacroix impressed me today at Leopardstown.
