REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

Reply to thread

Message

I've added 66/1, 5 places, Stay Away Fay.

Here's my thinking:

Was rated 159 as a first-season novice when only 6/1 for the Brown Advisory (G1) last season but pulled, later scoped dirty.
A respiratory issue was also diagnosed after he pulled up in the Scottish National.
In November of last season he beat Grey Dawning. That one is now rated 162.
He was a 148-rated first-season novice hurdler when beaten by Apple Away in the G1 at Aintree. My belief is that hurdlers improve 10lbs into their second season and then another 10lbs when they go chasing and possibly another 10lbs into their second season chasing. It doesn't always happen and the higher rated they are as novices the less improvement is likely but they do still usually keep improving.
My idea is that when SAF couldn't win the Brown Advisory they decided he wasn't a Gold Cup horse so why not put him away for the National.
His wind was operated on in the summer and he has had one run over hurdles this season, presumably to keep him under the radar. It's what they do in Ireland, after all, isn't it?
The handicapper, in my opinion, has taken a big risk in dropping him to 150 for this. I reckon he could be a 170 waiting to happen

He still needs to run in one more chase to qualify but he's entered in the Ultima so a run there will do. A big run would see his price collapse.

<blockquote data-quote="Desert Orchid" data-source="post: 2693878" data-attributes="member: 65242">I&#039;ve added 66/1, 5 places, Stay Away Fay.Here&#039;s my thinking:<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Was rated 159 as a first-season novice when only 6/1 for the Brown Advisory (G1) last season but pulled, later scoped dirty.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">A respiratory issue was also diagnosed after he pulled up in the Scottish National.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">In November of last season he beat Grey Dawning. That one is now rated 162.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">He was a 148-rated first-season novice hurdler when beaten by Apple Away in the G1 at Aintree. My belief is that hurdlers improve 10lbs into their second season and then another 10lbs when they go chasing and possibly another 10lbs into their second season chasing. It doesn&#039;t always happen and the higher rated they are as novices the less improvement is likely but they do still usually keep improving.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">My idea is that when SAF couldn&#039;t win the Brown Advisory they decided he wasn&#039;t a Gold Cup horse so why not put him away for the National.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">His wind was operated on in the summer and he has had one run over hurdles this season, presumably to keep him under the radar. It&#039;s what they do in Ireland, after all, isn&#039;t it?</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">The handicapper, in my opinion, has taken a big risk in dropping him to 150 for this. I reckon he could be a 170 waiting to happen</li>
</ul>He still needs to run in one more chase to qualify but he&#039;s entered in the Ultima so a run there will do. A big run would see his price collapse.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Desert Orchid, post: 2693878, member: 65242"] I've added 66/1, 5 places, Stay Away Fay. Here's my thinking: [LIST] [*]Was rated 159 as a first-season novice when only 6/1 for the Brown Advisory (G1) last season but pulled, later scoped dirty. [*]A respiratory issue was also diagnosed after he pulled up in the Scottish National. [*]In November of last season he beat Grey Dawning. That one is now rated 162. [*]He was a 148-rated first-season novice hurdler when beaten by Apple Away in the G1 at Aintree. My belief is that hurdlers improve 10lbs into their second season and then another 10lbs when they go chasing and possibly another 10lbs into their second season chasing. It doesn't always happen and the higher rated they are as novices the less improvement is likely but they do still usually keep improving. [*]My idea is that when SAF couldn't win the Brown Advisory they decided he wasn't a Gold Cup horse so why not put him away for the National. [*]His wind was operated on in the summer and he has had one run over hurdles this season, presumably to keep him under the radar. It's what they do in Ireland, after all, isn't it? [*]The handicapper, in my opinion, has taken a big risk in dropping him to 150 for this. I reckon he could be a 170 waiting to happen [/LIST] He still needs to run in one more chase to qualify but he's entered in the Ultima so a run there will do. A big run would see his price collapse. [/QUOTE]

Verification: 5 + 3 = ?