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The 2025 Lockinge Stakes

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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May 7, 2023
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Hampshire
It's a long time since I saw Don take advantage of Jellaby unseating Brian Taylor in this and since then I've been at my closest track to see Frankel win it among others.

Anyway, the times today suggest it might be a bit quick for Dancing Gemini, Notable Speech and Rosallion look short enough after lay-offs and, in the "Dead Eight," 18/1 Lead Artist interests me somewhat each-way.

Poor at Sandown Park, but progressive last year and the yard is in form.
 
I read in the Racing Post someone saying it was the best Lockinge in 50 years. 😂

Is there anything in today's field that could get Hawk Wing or Baaeed, let alone FRANKEL, off the bit?

Maybe it's my age, but I seem to read more utter bollocks every day - at least when I was younger, I had respect for history and horses I'd never seen like Tudor Minstrel, Ribot, Sea Bird etc.

The next young RP hack who writes "race for the ages" wants chucking in The Thames. 😂
 
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It's all about the hype these days.

Excelebration, runner-up to Frankel in this race, was on OR 126. The highest in this race is 122. That might have been good enough for third that day.

In 2021 Palace Pier was rated 125 going into the race, as was Baaeed the following year and he went on to be rated 135. Can you imagine what Baaeed would do to this field, let alone Frankel??
 
If Dancing Gemini justifies being at the head of the market then he might be surprised to find it more difficult to fend off Tamfana this time.
 
moviebuff said:
notable speech carrying a lot of condition im told, will improve a lot from this run, queen anne at ascot the obvious target
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Re. Notable Speech - Hills have boosted the price in today's race from 4/1 to 11/2 this morning.

Edit price now back to 4/1:(
 
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Ian_Davies said:
the times today suggest it might be a bit quick for Dancing Gemini, Notable Speech and Rosallion look short enough after lay-offs and, in the "Dead Eight," 18/1 Lead Artist interests me somewhat each-way.

Poor at Sandown Park, but progressive last year and the yard is in form.
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The thing you'll have noticed about your favourite Uncle Smart Arse is that he's hardly ever WRONG. 😂
 
Think the 3rd and 4th will come on a tonne from that. Both looked in need of it, came to win their race but the 1/2 just had the fitness edge. Roll on Ascot for the NS/Ros rematch.
Well done if you were on LA
 
Thanking you Lead Artist. Ground baby.

Ascot will be fascinating. NS wouldn't be for me. Stronger pace over a stiffer mile.
If it's quick ground then Lead Artist will be a player again. Whether he can fend off Ros this time!
 
Desert Orchid said:
When I saw you liked it too I was tempted to double down but I shat out of it. I wasn't that confident.

I don't keep track of these things (maybe I should) but I think when we agree we're rarely wrong.
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It stood out as a value bet in my eyes and what made it an even better bet was the fact that most of the so-called experts ignored it.
 
I think the defeat last time out took it off-radar. As I said earlier, I don't often let one bad run put me off something. And often you end up getting better odds because of it.

EC21 first introduced me to the phrase 'recency bias'. It's a phenomenon punters can take advantage of.
 
A horse can be a big price because it's NEVER been any good.

And a horse can be a big price because it HAS been any good, but it ran badly last time out, so maybe it's gone at the game.

It shouldn't be hard to work out which of these is the one worth taking a chance on.

Throw in the fact the times yesterday told you the ground would be plenty quick enough for the favourite and the next two in the betting were returning after lay-offs and it's not hard to see how Lead Artist was overpriced.

Aftertiming?

Hardly - it's all in my OP.
 
Desert Orchid said:
When I saw you liked it too I was tempted to double down but I shat out of it. I wasn't that confident.

I don't keep track of these things (maybe I should) but I think when we agree we're rarely wrong.
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Get a room, you two!

(Although, admittedly when I saw the horse had been 'double-saged' I backed it and it paid for a tank of petrol and a very nice meal with a decent wine last night - thank you.)
 
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