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The 2025 Oaks

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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I backed Falakeyah for this at 25/1 before she won the Pretty Polly today.

Though obviously shorter now, I'm not entirely convinced as she was a bit keen early on plus she's a bit of a unit and not sure to be suited by Epsom Downs (if she even goes there).

I also think she might need the ground on top, something she's not sure to get given the CoC's propensity for heavily watering ahead of Oaks Day.

But I think she's more likely to stay 1m4f than the 1,000 Guineas winner, so she's the first segment of my "Oaksfolio."

I love this time of year - that said I love pretty much every time of year. 😂
 
Interestingly, Jim Crowley reckoned after the race that it wouldn’t be a bad shout for Falakeyah to bypass the Oaks and Charlie Appleby said he couldn’t see any reason why Desert Flower couldn’t stretch to 1m4f ( if that works out I think it’s hard to see past her)

Also, Saeed Bin Suroor said of Elwateen that they could now look at the Oaks as an option (would need supplementing?) and that She will improve a lot for this race and it will be better going further for her.
 
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I took Smoken at 25/1 some time back, unashamedly doing so because Timeform* had put it up in their horses to follow booklet. She debuts for the season in tomorrow's Musidora and no doubt her price will halve if she wins.

However, Coolmore's Whirl is a short-priced favourite for tomorrow's race and is 33/1 so I've added that to my 'Oaksfolio' (sorry for the plagiarism, Ian).

Dosage figures for Smoken aren't compelling but they suggest there should be no issues for Whirl.

Who knows, if they finish first and second tomorrow they might both shorten. That would be ideal for me but at this stage without much form to go on I really just want to have two or three at nice prices that might end up much shorter on the day.

(*They put up Ruling Court at 16/1 for the Guineas.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
However, Coolmore's Whirl is a short-priced favourite for tomorrow's race and is 33/1 so I've added that to my 'Oaksfolio' (sorry for the plagiarism, Ian).

Dosage figures for Smoken aren't compelling but they suggest there should be no issues for Whirl.
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Whirl is in to 10/1 after today's nice win.

Don't know if Smoken found the ground too fast or got unbalanced by the bumps she got but at least she was looked after. She's out to 66/1 so I'll have a wee think about going in again at that price. I'm not one to let one bad run put me off something.
 
The two best trial/pointer races for the Epsom Oaks are the Curragh Moyglare Flat Stakes 7f Group1 in Sept and the Curragh Debutante Flat Stakes 7f Group2 in Aug. The Newmarket 1000 Guineas Flat Stakes is about next after those.
 
Although very valuable for a Group 3, on paper today’s Musidora looked weak beforehand. No horse in the field had achieved either a three-figure OR or RPR. Essentially the hope was that one or two horses would prove better than they appeared on paper.

The only one to achieve that today was the winner. She was sent on and was asked to show what she could do. She won well but did Ryan Moore keep anything up his sleeve? She might not have the improvement she’d still need to reach Classic standard.
 
Grey said:
Although very valuable for a Group 3, on paper today’s Musidora looked weak beforehand. No horse in the field had achieved either a three-figure OR or RPR.
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Often the case with the Musidora but for me today was all about getting whatever won onside for Epsom at a good price.
 
Since 2000, 47 horses have gone from York Musidora to the following Epsom Oaks , 4 (8.5%) have won and 14 (29.8%) have won or placed. Within that group includes 17 winners of the Musidora and 3 (17.7%) of them won.
The last winner coming out of the Musidora was in 2023.
 
Where as 17 horses have gone from Curragh Moyglare Flat Stakes to the following Epsom Oaks , 5 (29.4%) have won and 9 (52.9%) have won or placed. Within that group includes 6 winners of the Moyglare and 2 (33.3%) of them won.
The last winner coming out of the Moyglare was in 2021.
 
There were nine left in this yesterday and as is often the class, it's arguably the weakest of the first four Classics.

Group 1 3yo fillies with middle-distance pedigrees are pretty thin on the ground nowadays and if you con identify one ante-post you can be sitting on a good bet.

Expect watered ground.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Coolmore's Whirl is a short-priced favourite for tomorrow's race and is 33/1 so I've added that to my 'Oaksfolio' (sorry for the plagiarism, Ian).

Dosage figures ... suggest there should be no issues for Whirl.

... at this stage without much form to go on I really just want to have two or three at nice prices that might end up much shorter on the day.
Click to expand...
I haven't been keeping an eye on the race but I see Whirl is only 5/1. It will be interesting to see if Moore opts for her ahead of Giselle.
 
If they water heavily and it's an unseasonably easy surface on Oaks Day, the one with the profile I like (though friendless in the ante-post betting right now) is Minnie Hauk.

She won the Cheshire Oaks on what seemed dead ground to me, she's a proven stayer and never underestimate the capacity for any Frankel progeny to progress.

But will she even run?
 
Ian_Davies said:
If they water heavily and it's an unseasonably easy surface on Oaks Day, the one with the profile I like (though friendless in the ante-post betting right now) is Minnie Hauk.

She won the Cheshire Oaks on what seemed dead ground to me, she's a proven stayer and never underestimate the capacity for any Frankel progeny to progress.

But will she even run?
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Interesting that both Giselle and Whirl are both showing as 11/2 on oddschecker and are drifting whereas.Minnie Hauk is best priced 6/1 albeit only two points less than it's price directly after winning the Cheshire Oaks.
Rain forecast around Epsom on Tuesday and Thursday so could well run a big race if allowed to run.
Would love to know the jockey bookings.
 
Cooper will sacrifice Oaks Day to get the ground he wants Derby Day.

Expect him to put a reservoir on it unless the weather does it for him.
 
They think there might be a fair bot of rain of Thursday so, hopefully, he'll do the right thing by everybody and leave the taps turned off.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Cooper will sacrifice Oaks Day to get the ground he wants Derby Day.

Expect him to put a reservoir on it unless the weather does it for him.
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I think if he had been getting on Noah’s Ark he would have suggested putting another 10mm on “just to be on the safe side”
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
I think if he had been getting on Noah’s Ark he would have suggested putting another 10mm on “just to be on the safe side”
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💯%^. This was an Oaks in June, by the end of the race it more closely resembled a bumper on Heavy ground in deepest Winter, this is "Cooperfication:"
 
Fair comment, Maurice, but you saw the optics with the divots flying, they came Stands' side (big edge with cut to be the one directly against that rail at Epsom) and the way they were strung out at the end.

Cooper doesn't care about Oaks/Coronation Cup Day - he waters to try to achieve ground without the word "Firm" in the going description on Derby Day and that often means putting a lot of water down during this week which impacts most on the Friday.

Anyone can read a going map, reading the recurring pattern of activity of a CoC is worth more IMO.
 
There was a meeting a couple of weeks ago where the divots were flying but the times were quick. The 'experts' were saying they were just kicking the top of the surface and that the ground was on the firm side underneath.

Also, it isn't uncommon for the Oaks to see them strung out at the finish. There's usually a wider spread of ability in it than in the Derby, with ordinary fillies chasing black type and the claim that they were placed in a Classic.

I'm [almost] as cynical as you when it comes to CoCs and I agree they will 'err on the side of caution' so will work on that basis when I'm studying the cards but will keep a close eye on the times and how the races unfold on the Friday before committing for Saturday.
 
Also, the day after Snowfall, Adayar won the Derby against the far rail on officially good to soft in 1.55s slow, with the field well strung out.

I think the Snowflake that won the Oaks was a pretty special filly.
 
Cooper today: "We'll make decisions based on what we think might happen, but it's getting to the stage whereby if the forecast was dry and settled I think we'd step in tomorrow to water to some degree. But that's not what we're forecast."

He's just DYING to turn those taps on! 😂
 
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