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The 2025 Scottish Grand National (Handicap Chase)

Willie Mullins seems to be belatedly getting the hang of training race horses - I gather he had a couple of winners in the Liverpool area today - and he might feel motivated to bring a few over for this fixture as he has done in the past.

I'm rather interested in an entry he has in this by the name of Chosen Witness (16/1 best and going blue on Oddschecker).

I was initially concerned the ground might be too quick for it, and the sire's progeny's record on a resilient surface frankly ain't too hot, but his dam was runner up in a Point conducted on Firm ground (this was years ago, obviously) and this gives me hope.

Anyway, Chosen Witness won off 130 over timber here last year, suggesting to me the potential to turn out rather better than 137 over the major obstacles and he has shown potential in three runs over fences thus far, including when unseating four out in a rather good Novice Chase at Navan last time out.

If he is a confirmed entry on Monday, I might invest.

Johnnywho looks the right favourite and 8/1 might actually be fair.

He ran a blinder in the Kim Muir and, even up 7lb, should be suited by this marathon test.
 
No rain at all in the forecast for this week and plenty of sunshine. Going stick readings already in the mid 6s. There probably won't be as much watering as at Aintree and Ayr is famous for draining quickly because of the sandy subsoil.

Expect good-ground horses literally to have their day in the sun.
 
That's really interesting - thank you, Maurice.

Tbh, if it's like a road, I would worry for Chosen Witness - he's no form on it and the sire stats on quick ground are dire, I'd be pinning my hopes on the dam having once finished second in a Point on Firm donkeys years ago. 😂

I shall wait and see what the five-day confirmations look like tomorrow.
 
There has to be a chance that if the Irish trainers look like sending over battalions of runners the CoC might get a dose of the shites and double the watering.

My powder shall remain unwatered* for the time being.



*Just thought I'd explore the obverse of the idea of 'keeping one's powder dry' :p
 
By my reckoning Willie Mullins still has 11 horses of the 33 remaining in the Scottish Grand National at the five-day entry stage.
The maximum field size is 30 so nearly all those wishing to run will do so. It won't be a race for mudlarks unless the ground is like the good to soft at Uttoxeter on Midlands Grand National day.

Klarc Kent - 4th in the race last year - is noted in second place in the ratings. His form figures are generally uninspiring this season, but he's been stepping up in distance on nearly every run and his handicap mark has been dropping. Currently 66/1 in the Bet365 ante-post betting.
Is last year's winner, Macdermott, 6 pounds higher in Britain than in Ireland? (142 GB, 136 Ireland ). Won off 137 last year.

Spanish Harlem was 6th in the 2024 Scottish National, 7th in the Thyestes and 4th (raced wide) in the Punchestown Grand National Trial. 33/1.

Snipe ( Dan Skelton ) is one I've had in mind since the autumn for a long-distance race, and he's been racing mainly over 3 miles. Stayed on from the back to grab a lucky 3rd in the Great Yorkshire Chase. Also 66/1.

Walking On Air changed trainer from Gary Brown to Faye Bramley a couple of weeks ago. 16/1.
Chosen Witness - mentioned above by Ian Davies - is currently 8/1 fav.
 
The horse I am interested in is The Kniphand trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies.
Allotted 10:00 and usually ridden by his 3lb claimer Finn Lambert.
Best efforts have been on flat courses and will act on the ground.
20/1 freely available.
 
As far as I can make out, the following are still engaged in both the Ayr and Irish Nationals:

High Class Hero
Loughglynn
Olympic Man
Macdermott
Captain Cody
Chosen Witness
Spanish Harlem
A Penny A Hundred
Hasthing
Klarc Kent
Brandt
 
Desert Orchid said:
As far as I can make out, the following are still engaged in both the Ayr and Irish Nationals:

High Class Hero
Loughglynn
Olympic Man
Macdermott
Captain Cody
Chosen Witness
Spanish Harlem
A Penny A Hundred
Hasthing
Klarc Kent
Brandt
Click to expand...
If Willie Mullins can win this with Klarc Kent, he really is Superman.

I think he is a big price possibility too.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
If Willie Mullins can win this with Klarc Kent, he really is Superman.

I think he is a big price possibility too.
Click to expand...

I've backed it twice this year and it wasn't off an inch either time so the chances are it's been prepping for something big. Maybe this, maybe Fairyhouse, maybe Sandown, maybe the milk round, but I want to see it in the final decs before I get involved again.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've backed it twice this year and it wasn't off an inch either time so the chances are it's been prepping for something big. Maybe this, maybe Fairyhouse, maybe Sandown, maybe the milk round, but I want to see it in the final decs before I get involved again.
Click to expand...
I have also backed it twice and think he may be being saved for this. Will be looking again after tomorrows devs. Robicheaux has also mentioned him already too.
 
Looks like 23 run. Mullins with six but O'Moore Park doesn't look like one of them. Kealy is strongly anti-Chosen Witness in his Weekender column (but he's saying he had his worst-ever Aintree so maybe that's a good thing).
 
Paul Kealy is a down-to-Earth top bloke - he was when I worked with him over 30 years ago and still was when I had brief chats with him at Epsom and Sandown in recent years.

I wouldn't know what his overall tipping record is, but he certainly shifts the market when he puts one up at a big price, as RP tipsters always have.

Chosen Witness is certainly short enough now and a drift on the day wouldn't surprise me.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Paul Kealy is a down-to-Earth top bloke - he was when I worked with him over 30 years ago and still was when I had brief chats with him at Epsom and Sandown in recent years.

I wouldn't know what his overall tipping record is, but he certainly shifts the market when he puts one up at a big price, as RP tipsters always have.

Chosen Witness is certainly short enough now and a drift on the day wouldn't surprise me.
Click to expand...
Didn’t last years winner also drift massively on the day to go off about 20/1 having been AP favourite?
 
viking said:
Didn’t last years winner also drift massively on the day to go off about 20/1 having been AP favourite?
Click to expand...

I'm sure the big gamble of the race was Mr incredible who didn't make it to the first fence . Strangest betting heat of the year was last years Scottish.
 
13 winners of the Scottish Grand National in the last 42 years were beaten at the Cheltenham Festival the previous month finishing 837P5875PP235. Irishracing.com/news writes up the chances of three horses which ran at Cheltenham in March.

(1) Hasthing - the O'Neills - (16/1) - fell at the last fence in the National Hunt Cup
(2) Henry's Friend - Ben Pauling - (12/1) - ran better than the result suggests when 8th in the Ultima.
(3) Walking On Air - Faye Bramley - ( 14/1) - finished 11th in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir. Lost by a neck to Henry's Friend at Newbury in December 2023 ( when trained by Nicky Henderson ), and is 28 pounds better off with Henry's Friend here.

The fourth one which they didn't mention is Famous Bridge - Nicky Richards - (25/1) - which was 6th in the Ultima. Usually runs well at Haydock in the winter, and was a non-runner in the 2023 Scottish National because of unsuitable ground.
 


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