The 2026 Classic Handicap Chase

[Ian_Davies]

It's Warwick's big day, weather permitting, next Saturday and this 3m5f feast is the main event.

The entries will be tomorrow and I'll be shocked if it's not priced up by dusk.

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-r...unt/half-a-mill-classic-handicap-chase/winner

 

[Ian_Davies]

16 entries.

Aworkinprogress Nick Gifford
De Legislator Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
Destroytheevidence Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls
Gericault Roque David Pipe
Gold Clermont Olly Murphy
Joyeux Machin Dan Skelton
L'homme Presse Venetia Williams
Makin'yourmindup Paul Nicholls
Mr Vango Sara Bradstock
My Silver Lining Emma Lavelle
Myretown Lucinda Russel & Michael Scudamore
Nassalam Gary & Josh Moore
Resplendent Grey Olly Murphy
Torn And Frayed NIgel & Willy Twiston-Davies
Transmission Neil Mulholland
Val Dancer Mel Rowley

 

[Ian_Davies]

Note the new rule regarding horses 15lb or more out of the handicap being potentially unable to run.

 

[Ian_Davies]

The rule, set to take effect from Wednesday, means horses cannot participate if they are 15lb or more out of the weights.

 

[Outsider]

Not worth having a bet until its known whether or not L'homme presse runs.

 

[Robicheaux]

Handicap wise. My Silver Lining looks the obvious contender. See what the rest of the week brings.

 

[Slim]

Not worth having a bet until its known whether or not L'homme presse runs.

The horses doesn't need to run. It only needs to be declared for three horses entered to be automatically expunged.

 

[Euronymous]

I've taken 14s on Destroytheevidence at Powers. He's much shorter at Hills and shaped as if he needed a step up in trip last time.

 

[Slim]

Myretown looks a bet-to-nothing at 7/2.
If L’Homme Presse runs, he carries 10-06 and three come out. Myretown goes off shorter.

If L’Homme Presse doesn’t run, a high-class rival disappears. His chance improves.

Either way, there’s more upside than downside.

 

[Slim]

I've taken 14s on Destroytheevidence at Powers. He's much shorter at Hills and shaped as if he needed a step up in trip last time.

He could end up 15lbs out of the handicap.

 

[Robicheaux]

Handicap wise. My Silver Lining looks the obvious contender. See what the rest of the week brings.

25s with Hills. Surely that won't last.

 

[Slim]

25s with Hills. Surely that won't last.

Hills have clearly priced it taking into account that the horse can be expunged.

 

[Slim]

I love chaos in a market. If a horse is expunged you are balloted out. My Silver Lining 25/1 is essentially NRNB.

 

[Ian_Davies]

It's Warwick's big day, weather permitting, next Saturday and this 3m5f feast is the main event.

The entries will be tomorrow and I'll be shocked if it's not priced up by dusk.

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-r...unt/half-a-mill-classic-handicap-chase/winner

If Hills were betting NRNB 25/1 My Silver Lining would be huge.

But they're not, she's over 15lb wrong and the new rules kick in tomorrow, so it possibly isn't.

 

[Euronymous]

He could end up 15lbs out of the handicap.

The weight band is 26 lbs and Destroy is rated 27lb behind LP so I think he's good.

 

[Slim]

If Hills were betting NRNB 25/1 My Silver Lining would be huge.

But they're not, she's over 15lb wrong and the new rules kick in tomorrow, so it possibly isn't.

You're misunderstanding how expunged horses are treated in ante post markets.

 

[Ian_Davies]

You're misunderstanding how expunged horses are treated in ante post markets.

If it's treated the same as balloted out, then, yes, I get your point.

I wonder if Hills do?

Maybe not!

 

[Ian_Davies]

L'Homme Presse, Mr Vango and Resplendent Grey all need to come out for My Silver Lining to get in, I think - without that trio she's certainly not 25/1.

 

[Slim]

If it's treated the same as balloted out, then, yes, I get your point.

I wonder if Hills do?

Maybe not!

They can’t settle it any other way. If you backed a horse rated 146 that’s entered for the Kim Muir, tell me what would happen?

 

[Ian_Davies]

They can’t settle it any other way.

Tbh I wouldn't put it past them to change their own ante-post rules regarding this new BHA rule, but if it's the same rules as for balloting out I entirely take your point and 25/1 is simply too big.

 

[Slim]

Tbh I wouldn't put it past them to change their own ante-post rules regarding this new BHA rule, but if it's the same rules as for balloting out I entirely take your point and 25/1 is simply too big.

It would be a lot simpler to just price it correctly. These races will be few and far between.

 

[Ian_Davies]

I've always thought they'd rather employ the cheapest staff they can and simply restrict anyone who can spot a "wrong price," than pay what it takes to price markets efficiently from the get-go, but you'd know more about that than me.

It certainly gives the race an extra dimension.

 

[Slim]

I took the 25/1. I'll be only too happy to educate them on how to settle the bet if Lhomme Presse is declared.

 

[Ian_Davies]

I took the 25/1. I'll be only too happy to educate them on how to settle the bet if Lhomme Presse is declared.

Good news - with "The Mallow Marauder" in the camp on this one, everyone's prospects of a refund are surely much enhanced.

 

[Slim]

Good news - with "The Mallow Marauder" in the camp on this one, everyone's prospects of a refund are surely much enhanced.

Greatly!