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The 2026 Derby

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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May 7, 2023
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5,294
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Hampshire
What this year's Derby told me once and for all was that not many Group 1-standard colts (or fillies, come to that) are bred to stay 1m4f any more.

Both of the Epsom Classic winners ran over the full Classic trip at Chester and the Blue Riband went to an uber boat in Lambourn.

It's also a fact that Andrew Cooper, CoC at Epsom, is always odds-on to overwater than underwater.

So I'm on the lookout for a colt with a proper middle-distance pedigree that looks the part.

And the one that fits the bill for me is the winner of the 1m2f Zetland Stakes, not a race with a history of producing Derby winners but that could change in years to come.

Pierre Bonnard is by Camelot out of the Nassau Stakes-winning New Approach mare Sultanina.

By a Derby winner out of a mare by a Derby winner - I've not seen a pedigree that screamed Derby winner to me like that since Australia (by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner).

And he looks an imposing beast with scope to improve the way he's bred to as well.

The form wouldn't be outstanding, but he won comfortably, he's a stone wall certainty to stay 1m4f and I haven't seen a better Derby prospect at this stage than him.

Benvenuto Cellini probably shows them more at home, but I wouldn't be quite as sure about him at 1m4f.

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/epsom-derby/winner
 
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Pierre Bonnard and Benvenuto Cellini were both confirmed entries today for the Futurity at Doncaster on Saturday.

Action (Aidan O'Brien)
Benvenuto Cellini (Aidan O'Brien)
Cape Orator (Ralph Beckett)
Dorset (Aidan O'Brien)
Frescobaldi (Aidan O'Brien)
Hawk Mountain (Aidan O'Brien)
Item (Andrew Balding)
New Zealand (Aidan O'Brien)
Oxagon (John and Thady Gosden)
Piazza San Marco (Aidan O'Brien)
Pierre Bonnard (Aidan O'Brien)
Port Of Spain (Aidan O'Brien)
Rochfortbridge (Adrian Keatley)

Latest betting: 8-13 Benvenuto Cellini, 6 Hawk Mountain, Item, 7 Pierre Bonnard, 8 Oxagon, 10 Cape Orator, 12 Action, 20 bar.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Pierre Bonnard and Benvenuto Cellini were both confirmed entries today for the Futurity at Doncaster on Saturday.

Action (Aidan O'Brien)
Benvenuto Cellini (Aidan O'Brien)
Cape Orator (Ralph Beckett)
Dorset (Aidan O'Brien)
Frescobaldi (Aidan O'Brien)
Hawk Mountain (Aidan O'Brien)
Item (Andrew Balding)
New Zealand (Aidan O'Brien)
Oxagon (John and Thady Gosden)
Piazza San Marco (Aidan O'Brien)
Pierre Bonnard (Aidan O'Brien)
Port Of Spain (Aidan O'Brien)
Rochfortbridge (Adrian Keatley)

Latest betting: 8-13 Benvenuto Cellini, 6 Hawk Mountain, Item, 7 Pierre Bonnard, 8 Oxagon, 10 Cape Orator, 12 Action, 20 bar.
Click to expand...
AOB with only nine entries - he's slipping!!!
 
Hawk Mountain 12/1 with Unibet for The Derby after winning the Futurity.

As stated, two more 2yo Group 1s at Saint-Cloud on the morrow!
 
Ian_Davies said:
What this year's Derby told me once and for all was that not many Group 1-standard colts (or fillies, come to that) are bred to stay 1m4f any more.

Both of the Epsom Classic winners ran over the full Classic trip at Chester and the Blue Riband went to an uber boat in Lambourn.

It's also a fact that Andrew Cooper, CoC at Epsom, is always odds-on to overwater than underwater.

So I'm on the lookout for a colt with a proper middle-distance pedigree that looks the part.

And the one that fits the bill for me is the winner of the 1m2f Zetland Stakes, not a race with a history of producing Derby winners but that could change in years to come.

Pierre Bonnard is by Camelot out of the Nassau Stakes-winning New Approach mare Sultanina.

By a Derby winner out of a mare by a Derby winner - I've not seen a pedigree that screamed Derby winner to me like that since Australia (by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner).

And he looks an imposing beast with scope to improve the way he's bred to as well.

The form wouldn't be outstanding, but he won comfortably, he's a stone wall certainty to stay 1m4f and I haven't seen a better Derby prospect at this stage than him.

Benvenuto Cellini probably shows them more at home, but I wouldn't be quite as sure about him at 1m4f.

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/epsom-derby/winner
Click to expand...
24 hours on from Benvenuto Cellini getting stuck in the Town Moor mud, the magnificent physical specimen that is Pierre Bonnard powers home in the Group 1 Criterium De Saint-Cloud.

Next stop the Chester Vase, I'm hoping.
 
I thought so.

Much Softer ground today and I just wondered beforehand how well the race would pan out for a colt I reckon is ready for 1m4f already.

But they didn't go too slow, Soumillon always had him where I'd hoped he'd be (in the van with daylight to his outside) and though he momentarily looked in danger of being outpaced 2f out, he picked up and fairly powered clear at the death.

Not sure what the form is worth, but he looks everything I'd want to see in a potential Derby winner at this admittedly-early stage.
 
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I took 16/1 after the Zetland, but I wouldn't lay 12s and I wouldn't blame anyone who took it.

Cracking middle distance pedigree and to my eye an imposing beast who should be even better at three.
 
Thus far, the three 2yo colts I have thought might develop into significant Derby contenders next season are: Pierre Bonnard, Hawk Mountain and
Raaheeb.
 
Aidan O'Brien tried to phone me last night - I didn't pick up because I have low tolerance for people who start every sentence with "Listen...." plus I was out for a curry in Slough with Charlotte Church at the time.

But I did text him back, as it was his annual plea for advice on which horses to target for which Classics.

"I want Pierre Bonnard for the dollars at Epsom, do NOT run him in the Dante at York as your record in that is marginally worse than Walsworth's with Windmill Girls in the 1970s. Go Ballysax and maybe Derrinstown (or whatever it's called now) then phone Andrew Cooper daily threatening to withdraw if he doesn't water the backside off the track. Hawk Mountain is your back up as I'm on that too."

Good to see him regurgitate this in today's Racing Post.
 
FWIW................................
O'Brien will bid for a fourth Betfred Derby in a row this year, and a record-extending 12th victory overall, and highlighted his hopes for Group 1 juvenile winners Hawk Mountain (who took the Futurity Stakes) and Pierre Bonnard (Criterium de Saint-Cloud).

"Hawk Mountain is a lovely horse," he said. "He won the Futurity and could be a French Derby horse. He could be an Epsom Derby horse, too. We couldn't be happier with him.

"Pierre Bonnard, we think, is made for Epsom. He looks like he should get a mile and a half well. He's a big horse.

"We’ll start him in a trial and see, and we’ll probably do the same with Hawk Mountain, but Pierre Bonnard looks like a proper Epsom type and could come back to an Irish Derby after that, or something like that."
 

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