The Big Four

Simon

Simon

At the Start
Joined
Dec 17, 2007
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Two years ago, the big four races at the Festival had very strong favourites, three of which were odds-on. There was a thread at the time saying which of them will be beaten and it turned out all of them with the exception of Big Buck's. This year we've got a similar situation, four very strong favourites who're expected to do the business in the big four races. Same as two years ago, which, or how many of the four do you think will win?

I can't see any of them being beaten, so I'll go with none, but I said that last time if I remember correctly.
 
Sizing Europe wins and the punters smile but Hurrcane Fly loses and spoils the punters day

Then Big Bucks wins but he's 1/6 so the punter backs some big outsider ew that finishes tailed off.

Disheartened he crosses his fingers and puts his lot on Long Run who loses and he goes home skint.

Isn't that what happens every year? :)
 
Cheltenham's cheltenham and invariably most years things look straightforward but rarely do proceedings pan out that way. Something will come along and spoil the party. Of the big four I have a sneaky suspicion Hurricane Fly will get beat (no idea by what though), Long Run is vulnerable too. I would be suprised if Big Buck's or Sizing Europe get beat but then again I am regularly suprised:D

For the last couple of months I've been pliling on numerous multiple bets based around Sprinter Sacre, Sizing Europe, Quevega and Big Buck's. I really can't see any of them getting beat but they almost certainly will be:rolleyes:
 
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I think the reigning big 4 are worthy favourites for their respective heats with the most vulnerable, as the odds suggest, being Long Run. And the reason for that is simply because none of the others have to contend with a horse close to the calibre of Kauto Star.

I fancy the first three to retain their crowns and either Long Run or Kauto to win the Gold Cup and have backed them in two fourfolds accordingly. The first paying 33/1 and the 2nd 43/1 (or thereabouts). I am almost expecting one of them to win too which is probably a foolish stance to adopt because it surely can't be that simple.

But, as you suggest, it all seems far too easy. We can be quite sure that their fate will determine the 'betting battle' at this year's Festival. If they all win the bookies will be left licking their wounds but if they are beaten then the many punters who have piled on the multiples will be left with empty pockets.

I am hoping for the reigning Champs to prove their class again. So long as the first three win, I'll be sitting pretty with both Long Run and Kauto Star running for me in the Gold Cup, leaving me with the choice to cover should I so wish. As it is Hurricane Fly is bound to miss the Festival or lose or get brought down or similar. You just know that horse racing is never quite so simple.
 
All four winning currently pays better than 30/1.

Or, the bookies reckon there's a 97% chance* of it not happening.

*not taking into account over-round etc.

Based on the current best odds, the percentage chance of each outcome is:

Code: 
All 4		3%	~30/1
Exactly 3	19%	~9/2
Exactly 2	39%	~13/8
Exactly 1	31%	~9/4
None		8%	~11/1

The most likely single event is Hurricane Fly & Big Bucks winning, with the other two losing, at 16% (~11/2)
 
It does seem good because surely there is a better chance of this happening than 3% . . . ?! However, it does just go to show how statistically unlikely it is, for all that it seems an attractive proposition.

Interesting to look into it a bit more.
 
I agree, intuitively it seems like it should be higher. But you're taking on the combined chances of every other horse in four races. Even if each favourite was a 1/5 shot, it would still be odds-against all of them winning.
 
I think the big two in the Champion Chase have a fair chance of getting turned over. Neither strike me as all-time greats.

I'd be against Hurricane Fly, although he deserves favouritism.

I've not entertained defeat for Big Bucks in the World Hurdle in the past, but I'm thinking he could be vulnerable to the likes of Oscar Whisky this time.

Which leaves me with Long Run as the only favourite I'm standing by. The sort of performance that won it for him last year will see him win a long way this time.
 
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SteveM said:
I think the big two in the Champion Chase have a fair chance of getting turned over. Neither strike me as all-time greats.

I'd be against Hurricane Fly, although he deserves favouritism.

I've not entertained defeat for Big Bucks in the World Hurdle in the past, but I'm thinking he could be vulnerable to the likes of Oscar Whisky this time.

Which leaves me with Long Run as the only favourite I'm standing by. The sort of performance that won it for him last year will see him win a long way this time.
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I'm with you on Long Run,strongest fav for me on the basis of what it has to beat.should be shorter IMO.HF will win but shouldn't be as short.BB has looked stronger for me this year,can't entertain him losing.sizing Europe far too short,I'm a big zeb fan even though the stats go against him.Queen mother looks a minefield.3 out of 4 to win for me but 2 outta the 4 underpriced 1 overpriced and one about right.
 
links781 said:
I'm with you on Long Run,strongest fav for me on the basis of what it has to beat.
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Surely he is the most vulnerable because of what he has to beat? i.e. The Betfair Chase and King George and already dual Gold Cup winner and all round legend Kauto Star.

The others have nothing of his calibre in opposition.

However, I do agree that there is a fair argument that he (and Kauto Star) should be shorter in the betting given the paucity of the opposition to their stranglehold on the division.
 
Big Bucks and Sizing Europe will win, IMO.

Think Hurricane Fly may find this year harder than last but will probably win, although I think Oscar Whisky could give him a run for his money should he go for the Champion.

I'd say Long Run is definitely the most vulnerable of them.
 
Another furlong kauto wouldn't have won the KG.Nothing would please me more than king kauto winning another Gold Cup but I see long run taking it up two out and kauto not being able to go with it.
 
links781 said:
Another furlong kauto wouldn't have won the KG.Nothing would please me more than king kauto winning another Gold Cup but I see long run taking it up two out and kauto not being able to go with it.
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I see your point but I still think he represents stronger opposition than the others have to face.

It must also be remembered that Ruby was riding a 3m race round Kempton, not a 3m2f round Cheltenham. I am hoping that he doesn't intend on quickening the pace quite so far out in the Gold Cup.

As I say, I think there is a fair case to say that both should be shorter in the market.
 
Much as I love Kauto he won't win another Gold Cup and when Grands Crus runs in the RSA, Long Run won't be left with much to beat. If he runs anything close to last time he wins and wins well.

Those that want to talk value (and that should be all of us), realise how much better value Long Run is in the Gold Cup than the likes of Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle.
 
I'd have to think Sizing Europe is most vulnerable, purely by dint of his age. Then Long Run and then Hurricane Fly.

Big Buck's only has to show up to collect again, imo.
 
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