The Cambridgeshire

Gamla Stan

Gamla Stan

At the Start
Joined
Aug 19, 2005
Messages
4,337
Has anyone got any fancies for the race or any other races at the meeting? Always annoys me that the Saturday clashes with the Arc meeting.

I think Midships is a huge price at 40/1 given he's got course form and he's ran consistently fast speed figures. The bookmakers favourite isn't even going to run!
 
For those of you that are interested, Bet 365 are already paying 5 places in the antepost market.
 
COUNT ON CARAVEL TO SAIL HOME FOR
PRESCOTT’S 4TH CAMBRIDGESHIRE​





It’s a few days until the Totesport Cambridgeshire and here’s our guide from the gallops for the big handicap on Saturday.

Smokey Oakey (Mark Tompkins) heads the weights off 9st 10lb with Ashley Morgan set to reduce the weight by 7lbs. The Tendulkhar 4yo remains in good form at home and whilst he will have alot of weight he continues to look in good form at home. Working nicely on the weekend, he is a proven group performer here and will be suited by the forecasted rain this week.

Docofthebay (Jamie Osborne) was 2nd last season and has been keeping good company this season. Jamie Osborne gave out a positive bulletin yesterday stating "He's in good order and he runs - the only worry would be if the ground turned soft but I don't think it's going to do that,". "He's had a difficult year this year but I think he's just starting to come right now. I'm happier with him now than I have been all season and he does seem to do well at this time of year.
"He obviously has more weight to carry this time but he is a nice horse."

Charlie Farnsbarns (Brian Meehan) is another with good claims and he comes into this on the back of an absence. Not disgraced in group company last time he is 3lb lower in the weights now and the drop to 9f should suit having weakened in the final furlong at Sandown.

Mutajarred (William Haggas) has been working really well of late and really impressed in a solo spin last week. He comes into the race on the back of a fine 2nd at Ayr and will appreciate any rain that falls.

Don’t Panic (Peter Chapple-Hyam) went flat like alot of the yards horses after a promising start to the season and whilst he hasn’t totally impressed in recent work with juveniles at home he will handle the ground if we get more of the rain that fell on Monday night.

Ask The Butler (Luca Cumani) was not given the best of rides at Newbury last time and was just getting going late. It’s unlikely this drop in trip will totally suit unless he can keep a position and the yard look to rely on Swop for a stronger chance. He should have won two starts ago and just found the ten furlongs beyond him last time. Ideally suited by this 9f he has been working very well at home with Bankable and comes here in good form ahead of the weekend. He is one of the main players.

Lang Shining (Sir Michael Stoute) was expected to do very well this season and won with alot in hand at Newbury earlier in the season. He has taken his time to come back to form but put up an excellent performance when chasing home Ask The Butler at Sandown, and only just got run out of it up the hill. Stretching out nicely on Saturday morning he kept company with Visit and Perfect Stride over 7f just chasing up Perfect Stride who went best in the gallop. Ideally suited by a bit of juice in the ground Lang Shining will be suited by the 9f and is one who could go well.

Fifteen Love (Roger Charlton) won’t be pleased by the rain falling at present and he likes to hear his hooves rattle. A solid handicapper he was a gutsy winner at Goodwood but it’s hard to know whether he will see out this longer trip especially in a stiff finish. He may well be high enough off 107 now but he has solid fast ground form and if it was rattling he couldn’t be dismissed lightly.

Premio Loco (Chris Wall) was not expected to go for this after his runaway win at Kempton which has been franked left right and centre since but connections seemed to change their minds two weeks ago with the race back on the agenda prior to a trip to Dubai. Only raced on a fast surface he wouldn’t want too much rain to fall but does come here in good form.

Tazeez (John Gosden) is one not to discount for last season’s winning connections. He was never suited by the stop start gallop at Newbury and was badly hampered halfway. He was a good 4th to Ask The Butler the time before and comes back to a more realistic trip here. Best suited by genuine good ground he continues to please in his homework.

Master Of Arts (Sir Mark Prescott) is a progressive 3yo who has been aimed at this race but he does need cut in the ground. At present the ground would be too quick for him but he will be pleased by the weather forecast. Moving out nicely in recent work he needs to step up on his home form but prospects of slower ground may help. However the yard seem to have stronger claims with Caravel (Sir Mark Prescott) who has really come to life in recent weeks on the Newmarket gallops. He needs four to come out to get a run and he won’t want too much rain as he is better on a good or good to firm surface but he really has been impressing the work watchers in Newmarket. Striding out in good style on Friday morning he moved on from Master Of Arts and Soft Morning in a solid 7f workout. The Prescott trained son of Medicean looks in top order and is the one the yard are getting excited by. He should get a run and looks a major player.

Yaddree (Michael Jarvis) is another who has been trained with the race in mind, and he pleased in a good workout on Saturday morning when stretching on out up the limekilns with his companion. Officially 5lb ahead of the handicapper he looked in top order when claiming Cat Junior over 9f at Newbury recently and his willing attitude serves him well. The ground won’t really bother him as he goes on most ground and he is one that is sure to be prominent throughout. He really caught the eye over the weekend and is another to keep on side.

Virtual (John Gosden) was no surprise winner at Doncaster after some impressive work but the key to the win was testing ground where he got on top of Gold Sovereign. He moved well with his lead on the Al Bahathri on Saturday and should be a realistic player if we got plenty of rain this week, he won’t want it quick.

Unshakeable (Bob Jones) is one who likes it at Newmarket and he saw off Presvis on the July course two starts ago. Things didn’t go his way last time and he can’t totally be ignored if getting the good toe into the race he needs. A lively outsider.

Ada River (Andrew Balding) put up an improved effort in listed company last time but is effectively 7lb higher without winning a race. Still progressing she may go okay but others look to have stronger claims.

Midships (Amanda Perrett) was hugely impressive here last time and showed a really impressive turn of foot when it mattered. Still in top form he has a 4lb penalty but he won in good style that day and with his course form looking solid he is one of those that could go well.

Wasan (Ed Dunlop) showed his battling qualities at Doncaster but this will be alot tougher. He is officially 2lb ahead of the handicapper and has been progressing nicely at home since his win, but the key to him is cut in the ground. He does handle faster conditions but excels in the soft. He is unlikely to get that here and whilst he is a progressive sort he may just struggle to land a race like this at present.

Jaser (Peter Chapple-Hyam) is about the last realistic chance of getting a run but he hasn’t been showing nearly enough to warrant interest at home.

Summary

A decent renewal but we need to look at the facts, rain is forecasted this week, not enough to change it slower from good but enough to draw the sting out the ground to not totally suit the rock hard performers. Fifteen Love and Premio Loco are in that camp and will the rattling fast ground they like wilting so are their chances.

Docofthebay and Charlie Farnsbarns for me are the two from outside Newmarket having both looked ideal horses for this and the former is fancied by his trainer.

However I’m expecting at least 3 of the first five to come from Newmarket. Swop is one with proven claims who will love this trip but there is little value at 11/2. If the rain got heavy Master Of Arts shouldn’t be discounted but he wants cut.

Lang Shining and Yaddree are two that have been trained for this and are impressing on the gallops at the right time. Both want genuine good ground but will handle a bit of give so you have to be with them, they are my savers.

However I’ve had my eyes on CARAVEL for this for quite a while and now he has crept up in the weights enough to almost certainly get a run he is the one to be with. He impressed in a recent gallop when working better than stable companion Master Of Arts and the ground is likely to be perfect for him. The 20/1 with Coral’s is huge whilst 14/1 5 places with Bet365 also appears, He is the main bet.

Advice

CARAVEL – 2.5pts Ew @ 14/1 (Bet365, 5 places)

Yaddree – 1.5pts Ew (split evenly) @ 12/1 (Corals) & 10/1 (Bet365)

Docofthebay – 1pt Ew @ 20/1 (Bet365)

Lang Shining – 1pt Ew (Split Evenly) @ 16/1 (Corals) & 14/1 (Bet365)

Good Luck
 
Why would you split 1.5pts [or 1pt] ew evenly with firms offering 12s and 10s [or 16s and 14s]? Surely the whole point is to try and get the best price going, not split it between the best price and the next best price?

(and before you come back with ideas of not getting laid the full amount, please do remember you are advising 2.5pts ew with £3.65 as your main bet - some hopes of getting that laid if you can only manage half a point on the rest)
 
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If you note Bet365 are offering 5 places, so I would place halve stakes with the extra place and half without, therefore increasing some chance of return.

A 10/1 shot with 5 places, is in theory better than a 12/1 shot with 4 places in a race like this, it is however to even the win book, but if any of the said horses above come 5th there is a return.
 
I backed a couple of longshots with Skybet who were paying 6 places. Fat lot of good it did me...

My main fancy was Premio Loco (6th) but that was a win bet. It looked a strange race.
 
Chris wrote of the winner:
<< Tazeez (John Gosden) is one not to discount for last season’s winning connections. He was never suited by the stop start gallop at Newbury and was badly hampered halfway. He was a good 4th to Ask The Butler the time before and comes back to a more realistic trip here. Best suited by genuine good ground he continues to please in his homework. >>

Bet none of us took the hint, him included!

It was a strongly run race and the big surprise was Kelly Harrison who had the advantage of the rail. Hardly a 'nothing race'; but it's always disappointing when very few pf the fancied horses make the frame. My only bit of money was Yaddree e/w at 10/1 on PP who paid out on 5 as usual in these big handicaps.
 
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