The 'can't win BUT' thread

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SlimChance

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Following on from my diversion on the 'will win' thread to bets of a more mathematically based premise, this is a thread for bets based on pure logic.

If you're thinking of posting opinion on here I suggest you stop wasting your time now and get off my fuckung thread. I want bets where you show your work and prove logically that it's value. By doing so perhaps us and readers of the forum can all learn something.

I'll be digging far and wide for anything I consider and can show is overpriced or value be it win or e/w. Any questions on the ligic of any bet I post, please ask.
 
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I 'can't wait' for your first post. I'm armed with cash and want more easy money.
 
Who wants a small return any way. Giggs is much the better man to follow. You're ignored by me .Big head.
 
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SlimChance said:
Following on from my diversion on the 'will win' thread to bets of a more mathematically based premise, this is a thread for bets based on pure logic.

If you're thinking of posting opinion on here I suggest you stop wasting your time now and get off my fuckung thread. I want bets where you show your work and prove logically that it's value. By doing so perhaps us and readers of the forum can all learn something.

I'll be digging far and wide for anything I consider and can show is overpriced or value be it win or e/w. Any questions on the ligic of any bet I post, please ask.
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Not Interested.
 
Shotgun Paddy in the 4-miler.

Already rated 152, he would be much worse-off if this was a handicap, and he is well clear (with a couple of others) on ORs. He jumps soundly-enough for a novice, has no stamina concerns, and with Foxrock hoovering-up a lot of hype/preview/old-country money - and with Holywell perhaps more likely to run in the 3-mile handicap - he is a tidy price at 7/1 (when he should be close to favouritism, in my view)
 
Shotgun Paddy has a few to contend with.

Corrin Wood, Black Thunder and Ballycasey have higher ORs although I've no idea about running plans for any of them and SP's form is in handicaps, which I'm not sure is a positive.

Right now I'd be looking to Corrin Wood if he runs here rather than in the RSA.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Shotgun Paddy has a few to contend with.

Corrin Wood, Black Thunder and Ballycasey have higher ORs although I've no idea about running plans for any of them and SP's form is in handicaps, which I'm not sure is a positive.

Right now I'd be looking to Corrin Wood if he runs here rather than in the RSA.
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Natch, I'd factored-in that none of the above are likely to take their chance.
 
Thankfully the decs are tomorrow so we'll Al know what runs in what on Tuesday.
 
Skybet seem to be completely overrating Quevega's winning distance in the mares hurdle.

11/2 Up to & inc. 2 lengths
11/2 Up to & inc. 4 lengths
11/2 Up to & inc. 6 lengths
7/2 7 lengths or more

The 7/2 looks far too short. She's surely far less than 22% to win by 7 or more. I like dutching 0-4 at 9/4 but you can dutch 0-6 if you believe she is bigger than 5/1 to win by 7 or more.
 
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I don't think that she will win. Cockney Sparrow for me with AP-The Champion Jockey on board.
 
Grasshopper said:
Shotgun Paddy in the 4-miler.
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I really fancy this one myself, I had a small stakes e/w few a weeks ago but I fear he wont shake them off on the drying ground...I am now leaning towards the Alan King horse Midnight Prayer...At 14/1 he's only rated 140 but we all know that's all he can be attributed until he beats better types and this 4 mile should be more of an optimum distance.
 
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Good ground horses cannot be ignored now .I'm finished with my portfolio of ante post multis ,so now I can have some fun with those that have run well on an unsuitable surface. By good fortune I've already got them in at monster prices and now they are in the first 4 in the betting- Happy Days!!
 
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