I don't see a thread for the Supreme (that Ian Davies slacking again, probably lolling around in his boudoir with a Tesco Coronation Chicken sangwich in one fist and a tiramisu in the other) so will post this here.
In a flash of *inspiration / *idiocy / *lunacy (select according to your own opinion) I have taken 16/1 Irancy in this race.
Since I saw it win at the DRF and checked its video next to those of the ICH and the big 2m hcap hurdle on the same day, I've been of the opinion that Kopeck Des Bordes is the biggest certainty since wee Mary McGlinchey did 'line-ups' behind the bike shed.
However, I have to ask why is it even money and not 1/3?
Could it be the prospect of unsuitable ground? Could there be something not quite right about it, which is gradually working its way into the market?
I still hope it wins as I expect, a la Constitution Hill, but I have a nagging doubt now.
So why Irancy?
As Michael Caine is reputed to have said, 'not a lot of people know this', but Irancy is actually a second-season novice and should really be targeting the top open races.
In his only run last season he was third to Firefox and Ballyburn, no less. Firefox went on to finish an excellent third in this race, going up to 146 for it and is now rated 151. Ballyburn turned up in [what is now called] the Turners off 157 and took a flamethrower to the track, going up to 163 for hacking up. Irancy was ridden by McGarvey that day so was probably about as cooked as a bag of flour. It probably had issues after, since it was off until hacking up in a very modest maiden hurdle in mid-November and has been off since. So why turn up here with Mark Walsh booked?
My gut is saying this is a prep either for Aintree or Punchestown. It's not beyond Mullins to use this meeting to get his horses ready for them, especially when not too much is expected of them here.
But if Irancy could have improved 20lbs (like Firefox and Ballyburn) by this time last season, he could have improved another 10lbs by now. The one he beeat last time is now rated 131 (so probably 137/138 over here) and Irancy hammered him 9 lengths in a canter. If Irancy is a 147+ horse, he could be the second best in the field.
As I say, this might be just about getting it a mark around 135 for a really big handicap but I'm happy to take the punt.
