The Dash

Colin Phillips

At the Start
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In an attempt to get into Tout Seul's good books I'm starting a thread on The Dash, a Class 2 handicap over Epsom's breakneck five furlongs immediately before the build up to The Derby.

I'm not really into trends but this is one race that one or two trainers seem to target, if in very different ways.

David Nicholls has run 13 horses in the last three runnings of the event winning only the once with Indian Trail, with Strike Up the Band just behind in third, in 2009.

The 'blessed' Stuart Williams prepares just the one each year, his return, a win from Bertoliver last year and a fourth with Hogmaneigh in 2008. Hogmaneigh being the winner in 2007.

Dandy has three that are at the front of the betting this year; FALASTEEN (12/1) winner of the dress rehearsal for the race in April, disappointed on his second run at Chester but back to form with a second at York; FATHOM FIVE (14/1)who only came to him during the close season and showed little on his seasonal debut; CRIMEA (16/1) hasn't run since July.

Stuart (who I had the pleasure of working for a very short time about 10 years ago) has BERTOLIVER (18/1), last year's winner running again. Bert didn't show a lot in his first two runs but there were signs of hope in his fourth at Newmarket last time.

I think it is fair to say that with Dandy and Stuart recent form isn't always too significant.

Others at the head of the market are CAPTAIN DUNNE (7/1) trained by Tim Easterby, ran second to Dandy's Indian Trail in 2009 and probably put in his best ever performance when running second, at Longchamp, to Dandy's Inxile in a Group 3 earlier this month.

MASAMAH (10/1), Kevin Ryan, is in good form and won from Doctor Parkes at York.

AHTOUG (12/1), Al Zarooni, was a very impressive winner from what had become a very poor position in a race at Chester early this month.

BEAT THE BELL (16/1), David Barron, was the runner-up to Falasteen in that race at Epsom in April but has disappointed since.

DUBAI MEDIA (16/1), Ed Dunlop, has yet to race over the minimum trip, rather surprised at her position in the market.

OLDJOESAID (16/1), Kevin Ryan, finished fourth in this race in 2009 and finished tenth in 2010. In and out form this season.

PERFECT BLOSSOM (16/1), Kevin Ryan, won a minor race over the course and distance in July and has yet to run this season.

The draw will probably have an effect on the result. Of the 12 places up for grabs in the last three runnings only three have been from single figure stalls and of those three there was an 8 and a 9 from where it would be possible to race stand side. OLDJOESAID, who ran fourth from stall 1 in 2009 seems an exceptional overcoming of a poor draw.

Right what's going to win?

Haven't a clue but I'm hoping that BERTOLIVER will at least claim a place providing he gets a reasonable draw.
 
I haven't checked the stats yet but doesn't the runners in the 5f race at Epsom in April (the dress rehearsal as you call it) have an excellent record in this race over the years?

I'd be looking at the first four in that race and see who's running in this.
 
Pos. Draw Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP
1 5 Falasteen (IRE) 8-13 J P Spencer D Nicholls 4 20/1
made virtually all, edged right inside final 2f, ran on well, ridden out opened 18/1 touched 20/1
2 1 1¾ Beat The Bell 9-2 G Gibbons T D Barron 6 8/1
chased leaders, ridden to chase winner over 1f out, edged slightly right 1f out, stayed on same pace opened 11/1 touched 11/1
3 13 1¾ Cape Royal 8-7 R Kingscote J M Bradley 11 20/1
with leaders, ridden and chased winner inside final 2f until over 1f out, stayed on same pace final furlong opened 22/1 touched 22/1
4 9 ½ Piazza San Pietro 9-0 N Callan A B Haynes 5 14/1
in touch, ridden and headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, not pace to challenge opened 16/1 touched 16/1

The first and second are running and are towards the front of the betting market.
 
pick Dandy Nicholls two biggest priced ones..

*no form study or draw analysis was used in this exerecise

Beat The Bell e/way - 9lb better off with Falasteen for a 1 3/4L beating - he has excuses for his last three runs - didn't handle the tight turns at Chester and was drawn badly in his last two races - placed horses in the 5f race at Epsom in April have a great record in this race.

Lots of form study and analysis on this selection - :lol:
16/1 in most places - 21/1 on betfair but no place market yet.
 
NO. DRAW HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
19 21-622 Captain Dunne20 p 6 9-10 Tim Easterby50 David Allan 105 107 115
28 700-31 Masamah14 4x 5 9-9 Kevin Ryan54 Jamie Spencer 104 100 116
32 4-0066 Masta Plasta21 8 9-1 David Nicholls37 Richard Hughes 96 98 121
415 916-03 Arctic Feeling8 3 9-0 Richard Fahey44 102 106 116
512 520162 Falasteen23 4 8-11 David Nicholls37 William Buick 92 111 117
617 7534-0 Fathom Five31 7 8-10 David Nicholls37 Andrew Mullen 91 107 113
76 11118- Perfect Blossom289 4 8-10 Kevin Ryan54 Amy Ryan3 91 102 114
813 90-440 Confessional14 e/s 4 8-10 Tim Easterby50 Paul Mulrennan 91 97 111
97 32930 Beat The Bell14 6 8-9 David Barron73 Graham Gibbons 90 109 114
1014 15035- Crimea309 5 8-5 David Nicholls37 Adrian Nicholls 86 116 116
111 38-609 Sohraab21 7 8-3 Hughie Morrison60 Kieran O'Neill5 84 99 118
1211 663-27 Strike Up The Band10 b1 8 8-3 David Nicholls37 Cathy Gannon 84 109 118
133 0-3217 Oldjoesaid21 7 8-2 Kevin Ryan54 Silvestre De Sousa 83 98 115
144 77-004 Bertoliver22 7 8-2 Stuart Williams14 Luke Morris 83 88 108
1516 6-7308 Indian Trail14 v 11 8-1 David Nicholls37 Paul Quinn 82 97 114
165 270-43 Jamesway29 3 8-0 Richard Fahey44 Jimmy Quinn 88 110 119
1710 1229-8 La Fortunata39 4 7-13 Mike Murphy100 Andrea Atzeni 80 118 117
 
Having been name checked in the opening post I owe it to Colin to make a contribution. That said I don't focus on 5f races to the extent that I do 6/7/8 furlongs simply because even the slightest misjudgement or piece of bad luck can defeat hours of study.

I've been backing Falasteen, imo a continuing improver. I like to have C&D winners on my side at Epsom and this one fits the bill. SC'S comment is valid and I wouldn't discourage anyone from backing BTB. For reasons I cannot fully explain I have a feeling that Jamesway has better chance than odds suggest and I have given in to nagging in my head' only to a small stake. Definitely a wealth warning on this race.
 
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