Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
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I know this has debated quite a lot on here, particularly at the start of the season but I found this article on the RP Blogs section by Nicholas Godfrey quite interesting. The Dubai Carnival is where I've made the most money this year but I've given a fair bit back in backing horses who ran there since. A really interesting read and makes you scratch your head a bit, Gal, I think you'll find this a cracking read. I think next year, I'll be treating Dubai like a one night stand rather than a long term relationship for the season...
THE latest defeats of Gladiatorus and Eastern Anthem last weekend kept up an unwelcome record for this year's Dubai World Cup meeting.
No horse who won a race on the world's richest racecard has won since. In fact, none has produced any form remotely near its performance at Nad Al Sheba in March, seemingly lending weight to the American concept of the ‘Dubai bounce' - the idea that horses who run in Dubai struggle to maintain their form afterwards.
While the Dubai Carnival has raised the bar in terms of international competition, certain American racing folk are more than a little wary of its blandishments. For all their success, it is far from unusual to hear mention of the ‘Dubai graveyard'.
Indeed, a slightly closer examination of the issue suggests this alleged bounce is generally more pronounced for US-based horses than their European counterparts, although Gladiatorus and Eastern Anthem haven't done much to eradicate the downbeat impression since being switched back to Godolphin.
On the other hand, three horses who were placed at the Dubai World Cup meeting have won Group 1 races since, namely Gloria De Campeao (Singapore), Presvis (Hong Kong) and Spanish Moon (once he got over his stalls aversion in France).
Mind you, Racing Post Ratings suggest the British pair didn't even need to reproduce their Dubai form to score afterwards - unless, as is possible, the Dubai form may have been overcooked on the ratings - while the record of winnersfrom World Cup night is nothing other than a litany of failure.
Look at the details:
World Cup: Well Armed - one run since, last of 8 in G2 Del Mar, Aug (29lb lower than Dubai form according to RPRs; now injured)
Sheema Classic: Eastern Anthem - three runs, third in German G1 on Sunday (18lb lower)
Duty Free: Gladiatorus - two runs, do I really need to tell you? (48lb lower)
Golden Shaheen: Big City Man - dead
UAE Derby: Regal Ransom - one run, unplaced in Kentucky Derby (18lb lower)
Godolphin Mile: Two Step Salsa - two runs, fourth in minor US graded company (18lb lower)
Other placed horses have fared no better. For example, Godolphin's UAE Derby runner-up Desert Party, well fancied forthe Kentucky Derby, suffered an ankle injury and hasn't been seen since.
However, perhaps the poster horse for the ‘Dubai bounce' is the brilliant sprint filly Indian Blessing, who ran such a gallant race in defeat to the ill-fated Big City Man in the Golden Shaheen. That run meant she had never been out of the first two in 13 career starts, most of them in Grade 1 company on a variety of surfaces.
She went back to the States - and finished a dismal fourth of seven in an ungraded race at Hollywood Park, some 21lb below her Dubai form and about a stone worse than anything she had achieved previously.
Throw in the absence of last year's top two-year-olds Midshipman (ankle injury) and Vineyard Haven (dreadful in Dubai but due back soon) since they joined Godolphin, and it begins to look quite a litany of failure.
At least Godolphin's Gayego won at Saratoga on Monday - albeit in a minor optional claimer.
Looking at a longer-range sample, the subsequent history of World Cup winners isn't anything to write home about - at least, not after the first few years.
Have a look:
2009 Well Armed - see above
2008 Curlin - never the same again, despite two more Grade 1 wins
2007 Invasor - never raced again
2006 Electrocutionist - never won again, but ran well at Royal Ascot and King George
2005 Roses In May - never ran again
2004 Pleasantly Perfect - four-month break, then won one G1 out of 3 more starts
2003 Moon Ballad - unplaced in four more starts
2002 Street Cry - won G1, injured after next run
2001 Captain Steve - never won again
2000 Dubai Millennium - Royal Ascot romp, then succumbed to injury and illness
1999 Almutawakel - never within a stone of the form in eight strats
1998 Silver Charm - won four of next five
1997 Singspiel - no loss of form whatsoever - won two out of next three
1996 Cigar - said to have lost a step but still won three of next four and narrowly beaten elsewhere.
The Dubai roll of honour certainly seems beset with serious injury, and it would be idle to suggest anything otherthan that a trip to the Gulf is particularly arduous.
While common sense suggests this ought to be the case, such an unfortunate reputation appears to have struck a nerve in Dubai, where the Racing Club's press releases make great play of every decent run as part of the case for the defence. While I bow to no-one in my enthusiasm for the Dubai Carnival, methinks they doth protest too much.
This limited sample seems to suggest there is a distinct probability of a significant drop-off in form after a trip to Dubai, particularly for US-based horses. And to some extent, this is totally understandable, given that you would expect horses to be primed to run the race of their life on the biggest occasion. Yet while they can't do it every time, it is possible to argue that chasing the Dubai riches has tended to exact a hefty price. Then again, win a race in Dubai and it is often a case of ‘job done'.
Maybe things will be different on the new artificial surface at Meydan, although it still requires a trip halfway around the world for the Americans.
They don't have to go, of course. But there are six million reasons why they will.
THE latest defeats of Gladiatorus and Eastern Anthem last weekend kept up an unwelcome record for this year's Dubai World Cup meeting.
No horse who won a race on the world's richest racecard has won since. In fact, none has produced any form remotely near its performance at Nad Al Sheba in March, seemingly lending weight to the American concept of the ‘Dubai bounce' - the idea that horses who run in Dubai struggle to maintain their form afterwards.
While the Dubai Carnival has raised the bar in terms of international competition, certain American racing folk are more than a little wary of its blandishments. For all their success, it is far from unusual to hear mention of the ‘Dubai graveyard'.
Indeed, a slightly closer examination of the issue suggests this alleged bounce is generally more pronounced for US-based horses than their European counterparts, although Gladiatorus and Eastern Anthem haven't done much to eradicate the downbeat impression since being switched back to Godolphin.
On the other hand, three horses who were placed at the Dubai World Cup meeting have won Group 1 races since, namely Gloria De Campeao (Singapore), Presvis (Hong Kong) and Spanish Moon (once he got over his stalls aversion in France).
Mind you, Racing Post Ratings suggest the British pair didn't even need to reproduce their Dubai form to score afterwards - unless, as is possible, the Dubai form may have been overcooked on the ratings - while the record of winnersfrom World Cup night is nothing other than a litany of failure.
Look at the details:
World Cup: Well Armed - one run since, last of 8 in G2 Del Mar, Aug (29lb lower than Dubai form according to RPRs; now injured)
Sheema Classic: Eastern Anthem - three runs, third in German G1 on Sunday (18lb lower)
Duty Free: Gladiatorus - two runs, do I really need to tell you? (48lb lower)
Golden Shaheen: Big City Man - dead
UAE Derby: Regal Ransom - one run, unplaced in Kentucky Derby (18lb lower)
Godolphin Mile: Two Step Salsa - two runs, fourth in minor US graded company (18lb lower)
Other placed horses have fared no better. For example, Godolphin's UAE Derby runner-up Desert Party, well fancied forthe Kentucky Derby, suffered an ankle injury and hasn't been seen since.
However, perhaps the poster horse for the ‘Dubai bounce' is the brilliant sprint filly Indian Blessing, who ran such a gallant race in defeat to the ill-fated Big City Man in the Golden Shaheen. That run meant she had never been out of the first two in 13 career starts, most of them in Grade 1 company on a variety of surfaces.
She went back to the States - and finished a dismal fourth of seven in an ungraded race at Hollywood Park, some 21lb below her Dubai form and about a stone worse than anything she had achieved previously.
Throw in the absence of last year's top two-year-olds Midshipman (ankle injury) and Vineyard Haven (dreadful in Dubai but due back soon) since they joined Godolphin, and it begins to look quite a litany of failure.
At least Godolphin's Gayego won at Saratoga on Monday - albeit in a minor optional claimer.
Looking at a longer-range sample, the subsequent history of World Cup winners isn't anything to write home about - at least, not after the first few years.
Have a look:
2009 Well Armed - see above
2008 Curlin - never the same again, despite two more Grade 1 wins
2007 Invasor - never raced again
2006 Electrocutionist - never won again, but ran well at Royal Ascot and King George
2005 Roses In May - never ran again
2004 Pleasantly Perfect - four-month break, then won one G1 out of 3 more starts
2003 Moon Ballad - unplaced in four more starts
2002 Street Cry - won G1, injured after next run
2001 Captain Steve - never won again
2000 Dubai Millennium - Royal Ascot romp, then succumbed to injury and illness
1999 Almutawakel - never within a stone of the form in eight strats
1998 Silver Charm - won four of next five
1997 Singspiel - no loss of form whatsoever - won two out of next three
1996 Cigar - said to have lost a step but still won three of next four and narrowly beaten elsewhere.
The Dubai roll of honour certainly seems beset with serious injury, and it would be idle to suggest anything otherthan that a trip to the Gulf is particularly arduous.
While common sense suggests this ought to be the case, such an unfortunate reputation appears to have struck a nerve in Dubai, where the Racing Club's press releases make great play of every decent run as part of the case for the defence. While I bow to no-one in my enthusiasm for the Dubai Carnival, methinks they doth protest too much.
This limited sample seems to suggest there is a distinct probability of a significant drop-off in form after a trip to Dubai, particularly for US-based horses. And to some extent, this is totally understandable, given that you would expect horses to be primed to run the race of their life on the biggest occasion. Yet while they can't do it every time, it is possible to argue that chasing the Dubai riches has tended to exact a hefty price. Then again, win a race in Dubai and it is often a case of ‘job done'.
Maybe things will be different on the new artificial surface at Meydan, although it still requires a trip halfway around the world for the Americans.
They don't have to go, of course. But there are six million reasons why they will.