The Grand National trends

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Only 2 winners since 1978 have carried more than 11s 5lb.
11/13 were having their first run in the race.
1940 was the last time a 7 yr old won it.
1951 was the last time a mare won it
Horses that won or were placed in other nationals,irish/welsh/scottish are worth noting.
Horses that ran within 55 days 27/28
22/28 ran within 34 days.
Having a hard race at Cheltenham is a negative.
21/28 had between 10 and 14 chase starts.
The younger brigade seem to be taking over
24/30 were 9 or over but 8 yr old have won 4/6 with 2 9yr olds
And one was tiger roll who won as a8 yr old as well.
I dont think horses that were beaten in last years race unless they fell or had a good excuse can be considered.
Cutting the field down means crossing some I like out because of days since last run or too many runs or not enough experience.

Court maid 56days and a marland 9 starts.
De rasher counter 56 days
Mighty thunder 63 days and only 9 chases.
Deise aba 63 days
Chatham hill lad 140 days
Escaria ten only 7 chase starts.
Enjoy d'allen 63 days
Dingo dollar 18 runs
Freewheeling Dylan 90 days and 21 chase starts.
Domaine d'isle 20 starts.
Phoenix way 7 starts

Good boy Bobby is by fleminsfirth who is 0/18
So that leaves
Samcro 10 yr old
Santini 10
Carribean boy 8 Hendo.but will it stay.
Kildisart 10
Top villa Ben 10
Augusta gold (mare) 9
Snow leopardess (mare) 10
Poker party 10

Looks like a trend or two needs to be broken.
I like
Mighty thunder.scottish national winner.
Escaria ten. Worried by it being ridden by Sheehan though.
Court maid.66/1 mare,9 runs and 56 days
Augusta gold mare.w.mullins this got beat last time by a french import that seemed very well hcapped .

In the irish national won by freewheeling Dylan
Run wild fred was 2nd but is now 8lb worse off.
Enjoy d'allen is level
Court maid 9th is 13lb better
Augusta gold 11th is 10lb better
Escaria ten was pulled (never got into it) 9lb better.

When I put enjoy d'allen in my alerts in its younger days I never expected it to be 12/1 for a grand national.

Oh yes then there is Mount Ida,mare 11.4 and going the wrong way round.too late the money is down.

Food for thought.

Any comments are welcome.
 
Now betfair are £1 minimum I've done some outsiders.

Samcro 140
Top villa Ben 120
Brahma bull 170
Poker party 180
Easyland 210
Dingo dollar 70
De rasher counter 75
Augusta gold 140
Domaine de l'isle 168 probably wont get in.
 
Mount ida and Longhouse poet have more weight than I like.so has fiddlerontheroof.
The last 15 winners had between 3 and 6 runs this season.
Escaria ten and de rasher counter,kildisart fail here.im ruling out Caribbean boy because hes only ran once over 3m(won)
Freewheeling Dylan has too many chase starts and hasnt run for a while.
Cloth cap is a head scratcher.well beat last year which I dont like.
Phoenix way hasnt had many chase starts and fell heavily last time.
So that leaves
SAMCRO
SANTINI
COURT MAID
DINGO DOLLAR
MIGHTY THUNDER
TOP VILLA BEN
ENJOY D'ALLEN
AUGUSTA GOLD
SNOW LEOPARDESS
POKER PARTY
DEISE ABA.

I watched a replay of the Becher and I think top villa Ben needs to go to specsavers.
Travelling and jumping well and then didnt seem to see the fence in front of him and tried to go through it.
I dont think the form of that race stands up so I'm crossing out Snow Leopardess.
None of the horses will match all the trends.
But until I go through them all I have to say
ENJOY D'ALLEN 14/1 only fails on a couple of trends.one is it hasnt run for 63 days,the same as minella times last year.the other is he hasnt won a race worth over £29000 but has placed in two big races.
 
I've been through them all now at I've sorted them out.
The top ones in the race are the obvious class horses but the trends says avoid them.
My final list puts
SANTINI
TOP VILLE BEN
DE RASHER COUNTER
POKER PARTY
COURT MAID

then
LONGHOUSECPOET 11.3 is a slight negative
GOODBOY BOBBY by fleminsfirth 0/18 but a couple placed
KILDISART but has only had one run.
FREEWHEELING DYLAN hasnt run for 90 days and more chase runs than normal.
SNOW LEOPARDESS a grey mare
DEATH DUTY Elliot sacrificed one to get it in.
AGUSTA GOLD a Willie outsider with a chance ,a mare


Escaria ten and enjoy d'allen are two more who I've backed but miss out on the trends marginally so have to be on the list.

Good luck.
 
Last edited:
The more I look at the race the more confusing it looks.

I've gone against the grain and had an ew bet on EASYLAND 80/1.
I took 110 and 210 win only on betfair.
I know he has too much weight and will be 9lb lower in future races but I cant get away from the fact he beat Tiger roll 17L in the cross country at the age of 6 and got a rating of 164 or 167 as a 6 yr old.
Joined jonjo and pu in 2 hurdle races before leading for 24 fences in the cross country before pulling up.
He might be gone at the game or it's part of a long time plan.
But at the price I will pay to find out.
I've just found out hes sired by the same daddy as Poker Party.
What a forecast.
 
My main bet is

POKER PARTY 100/1

In 2019 it won the Kerry national over 3m,then it ran a good 4th running on again over 3m.thenvran over 2m 5f.
I would like to think the plan was the grand national but something went wrong and it was off the course for 21 months and reappeared in the Paddy power chase where it was nowhere,then it ran in a hurdle race and then put away until it ran in the cross country at Cheltenham. Rachael told HdB it enjoyed it but as it turned heavy she pulled it up.
The owner had Chris's dream in it but took it out to make sure it got in.as it happened he didnt need to.
It's bred by the same sire as Easyland so there is a good chance it will stay.

Given luck in running it should give me a good run for my money with Robbie Power doing the steering.
 
Well that was a disaster for trends with a 7yr old winning and 2 with massive weights 2nd and 3rd.
At least Santini ran well for 4th.
 
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