The Jumps Season so far 2018/19

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Marb

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Baron Alco winning the Bet Victor Gold Cup after a load of fallers

Sizing Tennessee winning a small field Hennessy, now out injured.

Clan Des Obeaux winning at a big price in The King George after Waiting Patiently very unluckily brought down and Might Bite below par again.

Apart from Frodon I'm feeling a bit underwhelmed by the action so far.

Several years ago the Bet Victor/Betfair Chase/Hennessy/King George were the most entertaining races in the calendar apart from The Grand National and Cheltenham Festival.

Maybe the calibre of horses, or current crop aren't as talented, or simply put in 'one off' performances, but can't keep the same high level of form week in week out, that others did a few years back.

Hopefully the action gets better soon....

Houblon Des Obeaux winning the veterans final at Sandown and Frodon winning his races, are about the two best things to talk about this jumps season, imvho.

If I am talking nonsense please let me know.
 
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wilsonl said:
Paisley Park has the potential and makings of a story for the ages.
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Lost touch in recent years, to my eternal discredit, but the owner, Andy Gemmell, was a good friend of mine for a number of years.

He was, and obviously still is, a remarkable man.

I was at Cheltenham yesterday and freely admit I wept like a wench when his horse powered away up the hill.

He'd have drunk the town dry last night and will have backed that horse all the way down.

God speed in March.
 
I don't think you're talking nonsense Marb but at the same time i wouldn't agree that Frodon or Houblon Des Obeaux in the Veterans finals are big talking points of the season.

Firstly I'm unsure what Wilson means about the making of a story with Paisley Park as I'm unsure of the back story but he certainly was impressive and I think we may have seen a star of the future I was very impressed. I've also was impressed by Champ who looks an exciting novice even though his last race was a bit of a farce I still can't wait to see him in a proper race. After Altiors problems last season its been good to see him back running regularly and seemingly being invincible in the 2 mile division this term a real star of a horse who may well rank up there at some point in the future as one of the best we've ever seen if he can win this years Champion Chase and go on to step up to 3 miles next year and win a King George then he'll have earned the right to be mentioned amongst the elite in my view.

Aside from that we've seen the rising of some of the forumites horse Kemboy that for me has been a highlight as I haven't known you guys that long but to have owners on the forum with a real Gold Cup prospect for those who've met and mingled with each other what an amazing high point for a forum that is absolutely incredible.

I agree the big handicaps re- the Ladbroke trophy, Bet victor and Caspian Caviar were a bit of a let down for me as races but that happens some years.

Not many have stamped their authority on the season yet but that's just a sign of how much things have changed in the National Hunt Racing. Its all really become a build up to the 3 spring festivals and the respective Nationals. But things start to get serious next Saturday In Ireland. You have to remember Marb that things have changed a little and a lot of the firepower for Cheltenham resides with the two big yards in Ireland they tend to have a softly, softly approach early on in the season and get everything right for the day. Next weekend we start to see them show their hands a little bit.

I personally think with regards Cheltenham its as good as we could possibly have it. With the exception of the QM everything else looks fairly wide open and competitive. The Favourite for the Gold Cup is yet to jump a fence in public. The Champion Hurdle which threatened to be a one horse race could look a lot different next week depending on the likes of Apples Jade and Laurina possibly lining up against the big boys.

We also have some cracking action to come in the next few weeks over here with the Betfair Meeting and Ascot Chase always producing some big talking points. You may feel a bit underwhelmed atm Marb but things are just about to start getting interesting imo. I literally can't wait to see the next couple of months unfold.
 
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Ivantheterrible said:
Lost touch in recent years, to my eternal discredit, but the owner, Andy Gemmell, was a good friend of mine for a number of years.

He was, and obviously still is, a remarkable man.

I was at Cheltenham yesterday and freely admit I wept like a wench when his horse powered away up the hill.

He'd have drunk the town dry last night and will have backed that horse all the way down.

God speed in March.
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You are not Steve the taxi driver?
 
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It's either more competitive or the quality has dropped. When I first started getting into it as a weekly thing, or was all about getting the Mullins/Ricci hotpots beaten. That itself created talking points.
We've seen the likes of Cue Card retired.

This season is just waiting for Some new stars to come to the forefront. Hopefully.

Imagine the love for racing again if Altior wins. Or Faugheen somehow wins the stayers. Or even Frodon winning a race at the festival.
 
Danny said:
I don't think you're talking nonsense Marb but at the same time i wouldn't agree that Frodon or Houblon Des Obeaux in the Veterans finals are big talking points of the season.

Firstly I'm unsure what Wilson means about the making of a story with Paisley Park as I'm unsure of the back story but he certainly was impressive and I think we may have seen a star of the future I was very impressed. I've also was impressed by Champ who looks an exciting novice even though his last race was a bit of a farce I still can't wait to see him in a proper race. After Altiors problems last season its been good to see him back running regularly and seemingly being invincible in the 2 mile division this term a real star of a horse who may well rank up there at some point in the future as one of the best we've ever seen if he can win this years Champion Chase and go on to step up to 3 miles next year and win a King George then he'll have earned the right to be mentioned amongst the elite in my view.

Aside from that we've seen the rising of some of the forumites horse Kemboy that for me has been a highlight as I haven't known you guys that long but to have owners on the forum with a real Gold Cup prospect for those who've met and mingled with each other what an amazing high point for a forum that is absolutely incredible.

I agree the big handicaps re- the Ladbroke trophy, Bet victor and Caspian Caviar were a bit of a let down for me as races but that happens some years.

Not many have stamped their authority on the season yet but that's just a sign of how much things have changed in the National Hunt Racing. Its all really become a build up to the 3 spring festivals and the respective Nationals. But things start to get serious next Saturday In Ireland. You have to remember Marb that things have changed a little and a lot of the firepower for Cheltenham resides with the two big yards in Ireland they tend to have a softly, softly approach early on in the season and get everything right for the day. Next weekend we start to see them show their hands a little bit.

I personally think with regards Cheltenham its as good as we could possibly have it. With the exception of the QM everything else looks fairly wide open and competitive. The Favourite for the Gold Cup is yet to jump a fence in public. The Champion Hurdle which threatened to be a one horse race could look a lot different next week depending on the likes of Apples Jade and Laurina possibly lining up against the big boys.

We also have some cracking action to come in the next few weeks over here with the Betfair Meeting and Ascot Chase always producing some big talking points. You may feel a bit underwhelmed atm Marb but things are just about to start getting interesting imo. I literally can't wait to see the next couple of months unfold.
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I reckon having backed Houblon at 20's that day (thanks Outsider), probably means I'm pocket talking.

Your probably right, that it will start to pick up soon.

I've got pride and sterling running on Solomon Grey, should he run in The Coral Cup.

My opinion is he is a force to be reckoned with. If memory serves Desert Orchid and others think he is now badly handicapped.

A game of opinions, and eggs are never far away from one's face. :)

What about Forest Bihan!!! If he turns up in The Grand Annual my credibility really will be on the line. :)

Then there's Leoncavallo in The Betfair Hurdle. My sterling went on yesterday.

All this to look forward to..
 
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The big handicaps are, if anything, more competitive now than ever.

Baron Alco wasn't over his race when disappointing next time.

Sizing Tennessee's efforts are probably behind his injury.

Clan Des Obeaux is a young improver regardless of what else happened to others.

I think it's a good season but we can't have phenomena year after year.

I expressed the strong opinion last year that the Gold Cup was a very ordinary renewal in which Might Bite didn't run his race. I stand by that. I think at the top level that's where you end up with the disappointments but the big handicaps still go to seriously well-in runners.

Somewhat as an aside, I think we may have seen the County Hurdle winner this weekend but I'm keeping it to myself until I see if it's entered.
 
It's slow outside of handicappers as the ground has put the fear of God in people

Apple's Jade has been the star of the season and look what awaits next week at Leopardstown.

The mares clashing in the hurdle race, all the gold cup horses with sizing john possible.

Last year's DRF was as good a 2 days as possible. Bring on the weekend
 
Ivantheterrible said:
Lost touch in recent years, to my eternal discredit, but the owner, Andy Gemmell, was a good friend of mine for a number of years.

He was, and obviously still is, a remarkable man.

I was at Cheltenham yesterday and freely admit I wept like a wench when his horse powered away up the hill.

He'd have drunk the town dry last night and will have backed that horse all the way down.

God speed in March.
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Just bit the bullet and had an hour on the phone with him. He's coming up to see me for Aintree or Chester Cup meeting as my guest.

I'll need to start getting the booze in....
 
I really can't see that the Gold cup last year was an average renewal D.O or rather the front 2 I wouldn't have down as average. I'd probably side with that form over anything else that I've seen in the build up to this year. I think if the ground came up soft again Native River would again win the Gold Cup and if the ground was on the better side I'd be tempted to say it will be between Road To Respect and Might Bite. The only other three who would interest me at this stage as potentials would be Kemboy, Al Boum Photo and Bellshill but on Soft Ground I still think Native River is the one everything has to beat. I'd struggle to see anything outside those 6 winning it.
 
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As I've said before and elsewhere, Danny, going into the race it looked a good one and the commentator on the day hyped it up but my cold hard reading of it leads me to a different conclusion.

Native River, for me, is a bang average Gold Cup winner. Might Bite couldn't/wouldn't go past him for some reason, possibly the going, possibly his stamina was ebbing, I don't really know. Anibale Fly in third? Big downer for me.
 
W P Mullins has had a "frustrating season " with a lot of his horses unable to run, bumper horses especially.
Yet he has had 98 individual winners from 227 individual runners winning 154 races and 3.23 million euro prizemoney , so far.
Gordon has run 286 horses but only 90 have won 2.83 million.
Gigginstown have run in excess of 200 horses.
Nichols, Nicky, Dan Skelton and Team Tizzard have all exceeded £1 million prizemoney.
Richard Johnson, Harry Skelton and Brian Hughes have ridden in excess of 420 winners between them with 3 months of the season left while Rachel Blackmore has lit up the Irish NH scene, yet we feel cheated somehow by mild dry weather.
There is a cold snap forecast this week through the weekend; I only hope it does not cancel GWID !
 
Paisley park reminds me of Sam Spinner looks good in all the trials but flatters to device on the bug day

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Desert Orchid said:
Native River, for me, is a bang average Gold Cup winner. Might Bite couldn't/wouldn't go past him for some reason, possibly the going, possibly his stamina was ebbing, I don't really know. Anibale Fly in third? Big downer for me.
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I couldn't disagree with this more. In 2017 I was all over Native River for the GC from before the Hennessey win! I think that they over raced him that year and he got beat by a good Sizing John on ground that wouldn't have been in his favour. I also think that Tizzard thought the same, hence the one outing last year before going on to win it. Last year (I was a HUGE Might Bite fan), we all thought that Might Bite was going to be the next big thing and go on to potentially win back to back Gold Cup and King George races; yes he didn't get his ground and if it was better I think he would have won easily but I truly think that Native River stole his heart that day, they went eye ball to eye ball on horrible ground and MB gave everything he had but just couldn't get past NR. NR just grinds horses into the ground and it may not be pretty but I think he was brilliant last year, and if it is soft again, I know where my money will be going.

Having said that, I do think that Hendo made a mistake going to Aintree after Cheltenham with MB last year and that along with NR stealing his heart is why he is where he is now!

*Maybe i'm now talking nonsense!
 
Yes, Flaggers, I'm aware I'm farting against thunder with my view of the Gold Cup but it's not the first time I've done it. Sometimes I'm wrong, sometimes I'm right.

Native River has looked an average sort since the Gold Cup but even I can make allowances for his runs.

Might Bite won at Aintree but not as impressively as I'd have hoped (I'm a huge fan of MB too and expected him to toy with NR last year, which he did until going to the last).

Anibale Fly was only rated 159 going into the race and probably ran a bit higher than that in the National to be beaten 11 lengths by Tiger Roll but bombed on his only subsequent start in a race he should have had the winning of on ORs. He was rated 3lbs above the 4/7f but went off at 16/1 despite getting 6lbs.

Before last year's Gold Cup I wrote:

Take out Might Bite and this could be a good handicap. If anything happens to the favourite anything could win and with the ground as it is we could see a Cool Ground type of result. I do hope to see Might Bite win by miles but I worry about the ground. I also worry slightly that last year’s RSA maybe got to him as he hasn’t been impressive this season; but neither was Altior. Even the other day his true ability didn’t kick in until two out and he looked in trouble for a long way before that. I’m not sure Might Bite will have that same late-race resolve should he struggle at any stage. However, I am convinced that the horse we saw win last season, if not troubled by the ground, could win this by a long, long way. I’m happy with my ante-post bets (14/1 and 12/1). If he wins those bets alone will cover all losses so far. ... It could well end up a war of attrition so I hope they all come back safe and well.
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After it:

“Take out Might Bite and this could be a good handicap.” This pre-race summary is the overriding context of my low ratings for this race. It was a wonderful spectacle at the time because the commentary made it sound like the two protagonists were serving up a savage pace. It seemed like we were witnessing one of the all-time great Gold Cups. In fact, it was anything but, although the winner’s new OR of 176 makes it look good. I won’t be at all surprised if in time we see that mark drop again.

Native River is a thoroughly admirable beast but he was rather beaten up here by Johnson in his determination to see off Might Bite on whom de Boinville showed commendable restraint when it was clear his partner had no answer to the heavy ground up the hill. This exaggerated the winner’s margin of victory as well as the third’s closing effort.

I can see where the handicapper gets his 176 for the winner from. Road To Respect and Djakadam have run relatively close to their marks and makes that possible. We also know Might Bite is top class. However, I’ve watched the race a few times now. The front two got to dictate their own pace on virgin ground. I suspect this seduced the others into thinking they must be going fast and as a result they were held up off a moderate pace against better horses so were always going to struggle to get into it. Djakadam has proved more than once he doesn’t stay this trip. He’s less likely to have stayed in this ground. He was in the group just behind the pace and probably ran as well as could be expected but I can’t have him running to his good ground best here, which is what Native River’s 176 implies. Definitly Red maybe had a harder race than it looked last time or maybe just didn’t fancy another slog in a bog. Either way, he was never running his race. It wasn’t the pace that beat him. Anibale Fly in third is a good handicapper, nothing more. He’s probably a few pounds better than his pre-race 159 rating but he’s the one who, for me, is a key guide to the form. He’s as close to Native River as he should have been. Road To Respect didn’t stay but it looks like he’s been taken as one of the key guides, which would make Native River’s 176 logical. I can’t have that.

Everything else was trying to come from poor positions off a moderate pace in ground being churned up ahead of them. Saphir Du Rheu probably got nearly the worst ride of the entire field. Not only was he held up but he was also kept wide, racing in the ground that had been badly churned up the previous day. Twiston-Davies was presumably riding to instructions as it was a carbon copy of the ride he gave the horse last year but that was on decent ground. I suspect the horse needs to see his fences and he was never going to be ridden in the pack so I also suspect Nicholls and Twiston-Davies had decided before the race they were just going to let him do what he could for a circuit before saving him for Aintree. It’s a ride I can understand but I cannot for the life of me understand the ride Edwulf got. I’m still angry about it.

So all in all, I’m going low with the bare ratings but I half-expect the adjust them upwards by a pound or two in the coming months but I’ll be surprised if I end up getting them near the ORs.
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Almost a year on I haven't seen any reason to edge the figures up.

But as is often said on here, even a stopped clock is right twice a day :)

By the way:

In fact, it was anything but, although the winner’s new OR of 176 makes it look good. I won’t be at all surprised if in time we see that mark drop again.
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It's now down to 173.
 
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markole79 said:
Paisley park reminds me of Sam Spinner looks good in all the trials but flatters to device on the bug day

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Paisley Park seems a different kind of beast to me as he needs holding up whereas SS won the Long Walk by setting a searching pace. Joe Colliver didn’t do that at the festival and the horse wasn’t seen to best advantage. Change of riding tactics more than lack of ability at fault IMHO



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Danny said:
I really can't see that the Gold cup last year was an average renewal D.O or rather the front 2 I wouldn't have down as average. I'd probably side with that form over anything else that I've seen in the build up to this year. I think if the ground came up soft again Native River would again win the Gold Cup and if the ground was on the better side I'd be tempted to say it will be between Road To Respect and Might Bite. The only other three who would interest me at this stage as potentials would be Kemboy, Al Boum Photo and Bellshill but on Soft Ground I still think Native River is the one everything has to beat. I'd struggle to see anything outside those 6 winning it.
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No Presenting percy Danny. I think this horse is class.i also think the gold cup takes a lot out of horses and so far Native River and Mite Bite havenot set the world alight.
Kemboy was impressive last time but the other one I like is Bellshill.
His run in the Irish national giving lumps of weight away oozed class imo.
 
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