The Lincoln Saturday

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Weapon Of Choice is a very big price here if I've got this race understood correctly. Solid form, young and improving, nice low weight and I reckon he could run very well. I don't think he'll start a 33's chance (bigger on the X's) if he lines up. What are the judges thoughts on this horse please? Let's get this flat season off with a bang...
 
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I won't be looking till i know the ground,draw etc but interesting as i kept the races on that card for future reference last season,the lincoln last year was
.30 quicker than eton forever winning the spring mile.Eton forever sluiced up in that race by 3 3/4ls off 9-7.Sweet lightening won off 9-4 off 104 and it was 2 3/4ls back to the second and a further 6ls back to the third.The first four in the spring cup beating the third in the lincoln,made some cracking bets for last season from that race.
It was no coincidence either dance and dance second to eton forever now rated 108,manasaas won off 95 in june was third beaten 5 1/2ls recieving weight and the 4th justoneforthe road won off 90 on its next run,the 6th smarty socks is now off 106.
I havn't even looked at the other runners or weights but i know eton forevers fav and you can see why!!Will have a look thursday probably
 
As good a trainer as Varian is, I struggle to take seriously anyone who employs Dominic Fox as their stable jockey.
 
Marble said:
Weapon Of Choice is a very big price here if I've got this race understood correctly. Solid form, young and improving, nice low weight and I reckon he could run very well. I don't think he'll start a 33's chance (bigger on the X's) if he lines up. What are the judges thoughts on this horse please? Let's get this flat season off with a bang...
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Doubt he'll get in off 89, Marb; would have only made the consolation by a couple of pounds, last year.
Start Right interests me, though the change of stables is a big minus.
 
Simon said:
As good a trainer as Varian is, I struggle to take seriously anyone who employs Dominic Fox as their stable jockey.
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Neil Callan is his stable jockey, Andrea Atzeni second. Hanagan will ride Hamdan's. Dominic will get bits and pieces, he only got the all weather rides because Roger's main riders were away, he certainly isn't stable jockey !!
 
reet hard said:
Doubt he'll get in off 89, Marb; would have only made the consolation by a couple of pounds, last year.
Start Right interests me, though the change of stables is a big minus.
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Cheers. Yes looks like he won't make it doesn't it. Hopefully we get a renewal like the one that Very Wise won a few years back, where the bottom weight ran off 88 (1 pound lower than this one). I doubt it but you never know. There looks to be plenty of dead wood higher up the weights to me anyway. We should have a better idea later today.
 
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Flame said:
Neil Callan is his stable jockey, Andrea Atzeni second. Hanagan will ride Hamdan's. Dominic will get bits and pieces, he only got the all weather rides because Roger's main riders were away, he certainly isn't stable jockey !!
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You were the one who told me he was his stable jockey because Callan had been sacked :confused:
 
31st in the list now, another 10 come out bobs your uncle. Can't understand why so many are quoted shorter than Weapon Of Choice in the betting when they have even less chance of making the cut. This horse could just sneak in off bottom weight and looks to have come off the radar as far as how they've priced him up is concerned.
 
Marble said:
31st in the list now, another 10 come out bobs your uncle. Can't understand why so many are quoted shorter than Weapon Of Choice in the betting when they have even less chance of making the cut. This horse could just sneak in off bottom weight and looks to have come off the radar as far as how they've priced him up is concerned.
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Chances of making the cut shouldn't affect your odds.

Money back if balloted out.
 
Cheers, By that do you mean if he is joint bottom weight but he doesn't make the cut I'll get money back, or just that if he doesn't make the cut full stop I getm oney back?

Like many I get lost by anti-post rules sometimes.

I'm not that bothered anyway as it goes, I'll happily back him to win in the spring mile at likely fair odds in what will be a competative race in itself. I am keen on him.
 
Well still see plemty of dead wood higher up the weights I haven't given up hope. Had a bit e/w on just in case.
 
Balloted out, wonder how close it was.

Thoughts on the race then people?

I think it looks pretty open. I've had a dabble on Dubai Dynamo at a huge price.

Off bottom weight could run better than the odds suggest. This horse has a bit of class, won a 125K race at Redcar a few seasons back. Since been picking up10k races every now and then being help up: Although he can front run as he did at Redcar. I'd quite like to see him try and go up there with the pace tomorrow actually: See what Gannon does.
 
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Information is only as good as what the other yards don't know and what your yard does.

I guess if all the trainers sat down and looked at the entries they would discount your horse Edinburgh Knight on the fact that he won't get a mile - if you know he will strongly then you're in for a good bet.

Would Paul D'Arcy know the true measure of the Lincoln field? I doubt he would, must be a little Godolphin stable lad going around saying there horse would have a good chance, then again there must be a little lass from from most of the yards in the race saying their horse will run well.

See what I mean, goes around in circles and no one really knows who's got the best chance.

You're a good bloke Swedish Chef and I do hope your horse runs his heart out for you tomorrow.
 
Can't see any reason why Fury isn't 20+ for this. Absolutely no form to speak of and a confident place lay if I can get some mug on Betfair to match 2.7
 
Euronymous said:
Can't see any reason why Fury isn't 20+ for this. Absolutely no form to speak of and a confident place lay if I can get some mug on Betfair to match 2.7
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Haggas has a great record in this and Fury has been gelded.

Personally I'd be a little bit wary of it......
 
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Of course he could win, but being gelded and trained by someone with a half decent record in the race doesn't equate to his current price.
 
Old Smarty Socks for me to storm home late from a high draw. I like O'Meara and he says is quite sweet on his chances - there are worse ew bets at 18/1.
 
Fury has been very in/out so far, but on his very best form, I can see why he is as short as he is, particularly given Haggas is probably the best trainer these days when it comes to targeting valuable handicaps. The form of his Newmarket sales race win couldn't have worked out much better, the next 5 home all acquitting themselves well in Group company either prior to that run or since.

Of course, since then he's mainly run like a goat, sticking his head up in the air and basically looking a lost cause. He's dropped 8 lb as a result, and been gelded, and catching him fresh might be the time he shows his best. His profile is pretty much all or nothing and I can see why you would consider laying him for a place, though it is arguably being factored into his odds, he and Eton Forever dispute favouritism in the win market at 7.8 - 8.0, but in the place market, their prices are 2.6 and 2.74
 
Euronymous said:
Of course he could win, but being gelded and trained by someone with a half decent record in the race doesn't equate to his current price.
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Don't dispute that for a second but personally, I just wouldn't go laying it in a hurry. Too many 'what ifs?'

Maybe I'm just a big jessie.....
 
Considering he split horses currently rated 114 & 117 at Sandown, spent the rest of the season piddling about in low-value conditions races, and now returns in a 100k handicap off a lowly 98, you'd have to think connections fancy his chances more than a little.
 
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I appreciate that, but small field listed race form has little bearing in a rough and tumble handicap. He might well hose up but the price is wrong.
 
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