I sort of hate myself for doing this but I decided to fill the void between Cheltenham and Aintree by taking a really good look at the Lincoln, and after waiting for the decs and the draw I was more than happy with my original selection.
The last time “king of the sprinters”; Michael Dods had a runner in the Lincoln was 2011, despite the race being only an hour down the A1M. He won it that year with Sweet Lightning sat 16/1.
This year he saddles Brunch, who’s just been given an ideal mid-to-high draw in stall 15.
He was forced to start his 3yo campaign off in the lowly waters of a C5 AW Novice due to a rating of only 76 but having won that comfortably and receiving glowing post race comments from his trainer, he was upped to handicap company off a revised 83. He is a horse who takes a while to get rolling but looks good when he hits full flow so the constant interference in that Haydock race would not have helped at all and he wasn’t given a hard time thereafter.
He proved that run could be ignored by getting up close home dropped back to 7f, off another 2lb increase, at York. Putting in easily his best work at the finish.
Then stepped back up to a mile, again on the Knavesmire, he defied another 6lb increase, winning off 91 (yet again keeping on well), with one of Saturday’s favourites (Eastern World) 3 lengths back in 5th.
He was then narrowly touched off by Johan at Ayr, from a mark of 97 when sent off 10/3 favourite. He’d have won in another stride and re-opposes off 7lb better terms against what is now the race's top weight.
His penultimate run last season was arguably his best as, as a by now 100 rated 3 year old he went down only to two 108 & 109 rated older horses in a 7f listed contest at Redcar. His finishing effort suggested he’d have been even closer over the extra furlong of Saturday’s race. That run alone would warrant a mark of c. 105 but being a listed race, his mark of 100 was left untouched.
It’s easy to forgive his final run of the season as it was on atrocious ground at Newmarket, again in a listed contest and came at the end of a long season. The fact that he went off shorter that day than horses rated 114, 110, 107 and 103 says a lot. He missed the break and thereafter, never really got into a race in which it paid to be prominent and could never pick up in the heavy ground but wasn’t given a hard time once it was clear he wasn’t going to trouble the judge.
He’s just the type his trainer does well with, albeit normally over slightly shorter and if he’s ready to race, which I expect him to be, I reckon he’ll be another progressive 4 year old winner of the race that goes on to better things.
I've just had as much as Hills will let me at the boosted odds of 17.52/1 and some at the regular 16/1, 5 places and while I know there'll likely be 6 or 7 places on offer come Saturday I can't see him being that big. He's currently 11/1 with the sponsors and 12 with Betfair/Paddy and Skybet
The last time “king of the sprinters”; Michael Dods had a runner in the Lincoln was 2011, despite the race being only an hour down the A1M. He won it that year with Sweet Lightning sat 16/1.
This year he saddles Brunch, who’s just been given an ideal mid-to-high draw in stall 15.
He was forced to start his 3yo campaign off in the lowly waters of a C5 AW Novice due to a rating of only 76 but having won that comfortably and receiving glowing post race comments from his trainer, he was upped to handicap company off a revised 83. He is a horse who takes a while to get rolling but looks good when he hits full flow so the constant interference in that Haydock race would not have helped at all and he wasn’t given a hard time thereafter.
He proved that run could be ignored by getting up close home dropped back to 7f, off another 2lb increase, at York. Putting in easily his best work at the finish.
Then stepped back up to a mile, again on the Knavesmire, he defied another 6lb increase, winning off 91 (yet again keeping on well), with one of Saturday’s favourites (Eastern World) 3 lengths back in 5th.
He was then narrowly touched off by Johan at Ayr, from a mark of 97 when sent off 10/3 favourite. He’d have won in another stride and re-opposes off 7lb better terms against what is now the race's top weight.
His penultimate run last season was arguably his best as, as a by now 100 rated 3 year old he went down only to two 108 & 109 rated older horses in a 7f listed contest at Redcar. His finishing effort suggested he’d have been even closer over the extra furlong of Saturday’s race. That run alone would warrant a mark of c. 105 but being a listed race, his mark of 100 was left untouched.
It’s easy to forgive his final run of the season as it was on atrocious ground at Newmarket, again in a listed contest and came at the end of a long season. The fact that he went off shorter that day than horses rated 114, 110, 107 and 103 says a lot. He missed the break and thereafter, never really got into a race in which it paid to be prominent and could never pick up in the heavy ground but wasn’t given a hard time once it was clear he wasn’t going to trouble the judge.
He’s just the type his trainer does well with, albeit normally over slightly shorter and if he’s ready to race, which I expect him to be, I reckon he’ll be another progressive 4 year old winner of the race that goes on to better things.
I've just had as much as Hills will let me at the boosted odds of 17.52/1 and some at the regular 16/1, 5 places and while I know there'll likely be 6 or 7 places on offer come Saturday I can't see him being that big. He's currently 11/1 with the sponsors and 12 with Betfair/Paddy and Skybet
