No great insight beyond the obvious I'm afraid Euro. If Hillary's going to struggle to make gains in the South, then Obama's got no chance. Shifting demographics have also ensured that the composition of the college is changing, and this is making the Southern states even more critical.
I did speak to my man at the UN recently
about Obama and the feeling is that he lacks experience at this stage. America will elect a female before it elects a black I'm afraid, and with the demographics shifting as they are, I'm not sure I can ever see it happening.
Hillary is also very popular amongst blacks, though in truth their vote isn't the factor that it might have been once upon a time. The battleground is increasingly falling on the Hispanic vote, and I'd expect Obama to be stronger here than Hillary. Another myth about Hillary concerns the female vote. She holds an advantage but its nothing like as big as the British media like us to think, and there are as many women who frankly loath her, as worhsip her. Don't forget that when America voted in one of these stupid polls to uncover the "most evil person of millenium" Hillary Clinton came 6th (higher than Saddam) :lol:
Obama as a VP would be interesting, but again I can't see it happening. Convention dictates that if your candidates a Northerner, then you take a Southerner as your running mate. It's the principal reason Kennedy took Johnson on the ticket, when Adali Stevenson or Hubert Humphrey would have had better claims on merit. That would mean Obama being an Edwards choice I'd have thought (which having just back read your post, is what you were hypothesising - pay attention Warbler). Clinton would be taking one hell of a chance, if she were to nominate Obama, and might just as well abandon the South and the Mid West, with the possible exception of New Mexico and Arkansas if she were to win. To a large extent, the black vote can be relied on, (provided you can get it out) and so the cynical numbers might dictate that there's greater utility in trying to find someone who can make inroads in the South, or the Hispanics (preferably both). Of the heavyweights, Edwards is your best chance, and he was widely perceived to have had a good campaign LTO, and his foresnically legal mind frequently appeared better than Dick Cheney's. In fact things got so bad that Democrat strategists had to under use him towards the end as he was eclipsing John Kerry.
I can foresee Edwards taking Obama, as he'll need someone to consolidate the Northern states for him, and thus release himself to work the South. Hillary would be a risk, and carries as much danger to the candidate as she does the opposition, as she'll inevitably draw attention her way. Personally, I wouldn't trust her and that's not just based on Ron Brown, Danny Casolaro, Vince Foster or Mary Mahoney et al.
I note incidentally that Paddy Power have cut Edwards into 7's now. My God I only had £50 on him :lol: . If VC Bet are offering 150 about George Allen though, can you put me a tenner on please Shadz