The precinct map makes an interesting scan, though in fairness it's easy to read too much into it. Again, I reckon it's Clinton who would be the loser, and have the most to think about.
Iowa's obviously a decent sized state (geogrpahical area) and sits at something of cross roads, drawing influences from all directions (illinois, the Conservattve North, The Early South and the Mid West). Obama's certainly picked up votes in the Eastern part of the state which borders Illinois/ Chicago, and some of his message will of course cross over the border as will his appeal. He's also picked up the Wisconsin border too, which might be a little bit more of surprise. I'm not sure that bringing in Illinois staff would have made that much difference, but at the same time it won't have done him any harm. Where as he might have expected to perform well in the East, where he will most certainly draw a lot of comfort is in the fact that he seems to have carried the urban areas, and that's got to be worrying for Hillary in particular.
Edwards has a crumb of comfort in that he's clearly taken the southern precincts bordering Missouri, although this need not necessarily translate into a strengthening of his appeal the further South he goes. Too many of the Southern States vote too late, and they tend to be coronations etc, as momentum has largely dictated the winner by then. Clinton's vote is much more spread about and seems to have held in the rural areas, and the West bordering the Dakota's. At one level this might be encouraging in so far as she wouldn't be expected to be strong in such areas, but on the other hand these are Democrat voters remember. There seems to be little prospect in my mind at least, that she could make any in roads into this base when there's a Republican alternative, and if Obama is able to replicate his support in other Northern/ industrial areas amongst the urban vote then she's potentially in big trouble.
To my mind she's sending out a slightly confused message. She's embraced the 'change' agenda of Obama, but is poorly qualified to play the card being the most establishment 'Washington' candidate of the lot. Obama has drawn heavily on Blair (and doesn't make that much secret of it) and is talking in nebulous terms about visions, aspirations and non specific themes. I still feel he's vulnerable on a few fronts but someone's going to have to drag him into specifics and test him in heavyweight issues of substance and statemanship. Clinton's the best qualified to do that, and she might have to sooner rather than later, or risk losing ground that she might not re-cover. It does open the prospect of course that the two of them could indulge in some unedifying negative tear up, in the name of self-preservation.
As an orator and all round general charismatic campaigner he's well ahead of the often frosty and aloof Hillary, and she's going to be no match for him if she tries to trade punches thus. She's got to weigh in with substance, and hope that despite his flying start the American public will grow wary of him as things unfold and the prospect of a comparatively unproven and inexperienced President Obama dawns on them, and hope they lose their collective nerve. My suspicion is that they will, but there were some interesting comments I heard yesterday about the black female vote needing to be convinced by Obama. Clinton has traded off much of this block which proved very supportive to her husband, and she's supposidly carried some of this over. If they decide that Obama is the 'real deal' she might start to shed another constituency in the patchwork that are her followers. It was speculated that this could well follow through to New Hampshire.
It's clear that in head to head stump campaign activity, Obama's got Hillary's number I think, but as the primary season moves on it will be impossible for candidates to keep up the required level of focus and activity. Polls come thick and fast, and with her bigger war chest and campaign team, some of the personal vote that Obama was able to garner by virtue of only having the single state to focus on, with a long lead in time, might get eroded. Essentially it means having to dilute his challenge by not being able to be in 6 places at the same time, some of the impact of his stump might lose some of its potency through having to spread the intensity thus. This should assist Hillary, who is the inferior campaigner, and thus deny Obama one of his best weapons.
To be honest (I was thinking this today) if you stripped away the 'Clinton' name, and then looked at her voting record (indicates left, and turns right etc) what is there to really commend her to the Democrat rank and file? She's actually a pretty poor candidate I reckon bar the reflected glory of the 1990's. She succeeded in talking up pre-poll expectations, and developing an aura of invicibility etc but that could be easily punctured, and once that veneer of being unbeatable is stripped away, she doesn't look half as formidable all of a sudden. As I've also said, she's made enough enemies down the years, and there's enough Democrats with whom she remains deeply distrusted who, if scenting blood in the water, wouldn't be averse to trying to finish her off.
The final point I heard on the Democrat side that I quite liked was that made about Obama. "He's not that black is he? I mean he's no Al Sharpton". It's not so much a pigmentation thing (although I think there's a bit more in this than America would like to admit). But he's a kind of Lewis Hamilton, Tiger Woods type of urbane and what I crudely call (for want of a better way of expressing it) "acceptable black".
The only comment I'll make of the dysfunctional Republicans, is to replicate another sound bite.
"Romney made them think. Huckerbee made them laugh"..... The result? say no more really, vote for Huckerbee and Chuck Norris as running mate. I expect Romney to be a lame duck by early next week, McCain to win NH and Rudy to take Florida. Ultimately, I think Rudy will prevail here, although there is the fascinating spectre of him running as an independent (which I could see him trying yet if Hillary and Huckerbee were to win). Mind you Bloomberg's recently indicated he's independent hasn't he, which can easily be interpreted as clearing the decks too.