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Great to see so much interest on here, and everyone bringing serious quality to the table to boot.


What makes Obama's victory all the more impressive is the sheer size of the turnout, which was twice the size of that in 2000. I know people will roll out the "it's all down to Dubya" line and, while it is of course hard to refute that, Obama deserves an immense amount of credit for energising the state, especially the youth vote (traditionally a low-turnout demographic). I've been banging on about momentum for ages on here and that was something Obama certainly had (though I wasn't convinced that alone could defeat Clinton) in the last three weeks of the campaign. The question now is will that momentum carry over to NH, and I have a hard time seeing how it won't to be honest.


As for Hilary, it's on to New Hampshire now, where it's absolutely crucial she make a stand. While it would be too soon to say it's a "must-win" IMO, given the national organisation and war chest at her disposal, it's not impossible to envisage Obama riding a tidal wave of momentum right to the nomination. Quite frankly, I was surprised how poorly Hillary performed last night. The most worrying aspect of course is the fact that she had little to no support among younger voters; granted, she got the solid support from her core (older women) but even among younger women she was soundly beaten by Obama. Warbler, I think you make very pertinent points regarding the charisma issue. I would certainly agree with you that Obama is a far better orator (he is some orator in real life btw, tremendous charisma) than Clinton. In fact, one of Clinton's problems was that she just keeps piling on the issues in her stump, as opposed to broader message of change that seems to resonate.


The real loser on the night was Edwards. I don't see where he can go from here, given that he virtually staked everything in Iowa. The fact of the matter is he has very little cash, less of an established national organisation, and has failed to generate the momentum to garner much cash. He did win second, but the fact is he was beaten comprehensively and for a man who staked so much in Iowa, he is the real loser amongst the Dems. On a personal level, the sheer hypocrisy of the man continues to astound me.


Pretty much went how we predicted on the Republican side, with Huckabee winning comfortably and Romney getting stuffed. Will be interesting to see if McCain can harness the momentum he has garnered (though probably a bit less than he would have liked) into New Hampshire, which is increasingly shaping up to be a litmus test for both him and Romney.


Was talking to a fella the other day who reckons Huckabee could well take Florida given Rudy's vulnerability and his strength in the pan-handle and the upper and even central region; not sure I see it myself though..


He has absolutely zero chance in a general though, even if he won all of the south, including Florida.


Will post more thoughts later.


Well done to Gearoid btw.  :)


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